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Dutchess County, NY — Restaurants Saturation

How many restaurants exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 36 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Sit-down restaurants with table service. Counted together because official statistics use one 722511 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 1.44× the U.S. rate (between 1.44× and 1.56× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 16 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 13 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Dutchess County restaurants — 144–156% of the U.S. rate

319 restaurants are counted in Dutchess County — 9.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 144% of the U.S. rate of 6.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2015 and 2023 (322 → 316).

Measured supply density is highest in 12572 (Rhinebeck), 12524 (Fishkill), 12508 (Beacon) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 12569 (Pleasant Valley), 12533 (Hopewell Junction), 12538 (Hyde Park).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 291 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Dutchess County sits at 144% of the U.S. rate for restaurants. 13 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 144% and 156% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 12572 and 12524; the lowest measured density is in 12569 and 12533.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing restaurants and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Restaurants
319–351
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (16 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
9.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.4
per 10,000 present
County index
1.44×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
291
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
300,448
33 ZIPs with data
Workers
91,489
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
299,963
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+1.4%
+4,050 people
Net migration 2024
+1,741
international +1,707, domestic +34
Jobs located here
109,709
LODES 2022, −4.9% since 2019

Dutchess County had an estimated 299,963 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.4% more than in 2020 (+4,050). In the latest year it gained 1,739 people: births minus deaths −8, international migration +1,707, domestic migration +34. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

109,709 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−4.9% since 2019), and 133,387 employed residents lived there (−2.0% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
47
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$3.9M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$83K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more restaurants in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 2% since 2015

Number of restaurants in Dutchess County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

322
2015
316
2018
300
2020
309
2021
311
2022
316
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
12572 Rhinebeck
322%
12524 Fishkill
220%
12508 Beacon
206%
12564 Pawling
165%
12570 Poughquag
158%
12590 Wappingers Falls
157%
12601 Poughkeepsie
153%
12603 Poughkeepsie
150%
12571 Red Hook
140%
12540 Lagrangeville
112%
12538 Hyde Park
108%
12533 Hopewell Junction
93%
12569 Pleasant Valley
75%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
12569 Pleasant Valley
75%
12533 Hopewell Junction
93%
12538 Hyde Park
108%
12540 Lagrangeville
112%
12571 Red Hook
140%
12603 Poughkeepsie
150%
12601 Poughkeepsie
153%
12590 Wappingers Falls
157%
12570 Poughquag
158%
12564 Pawling
165%
12508 Beacon
206%
12524 Fishkill
220%
12572 Rhinebeck
322%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few restaurants may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersRestaurantsIndex
12504Annandale On Hudson Employment hub 9613,286 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = restaurants per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersRestaurants Per 10kIndexStatus
12583Tivoli 1,994268 6 28.2 441% Very high density
12572Rhinebeck 8,8694,634 23 20.6 322% Very high density
12578Salt Point 2,249509 5 20.0 313% Very high density
12546Millerton 2,706992 5 15.6 244% High density
12501Amenia 2,476728 4 14.1 220% High density
12524Fishkill 15,0268,292 27 14.1 220% High density
12567Pine Plains 2,695357 4 13.9 218% High density
12508Beacon 19,5663,404 28 13.2 206% High density
12545Millbrook 4,3381,864 6 11.4 178% High density
12564Pawling 7,7341,610 9 10.5 165% High density
12570Poughquag 6,698433 7 10.1 158% High density
12590Wappingers Falls 35,7128,213 40 10.0 157% High density
12601Poughkeepsie 44,16426,203 56 9.8 153% High density
12603Poughkeepsie 42,3049,339 45 9.6 150% Above average
12571Red Hook 10,1082,223 10 8.9 140% Above average
12540Lagrangeville 8,8561,858 7 7.2 112% Above average
12538Hyde Park 14,3913,022 11 6.9 108% Above average
12533Hopewell Junction 27,3255,847 18 6.0 93% Below average
12522Dover Plains 4,959796 3 5.6 88% Below average
12569Pleasant Valley 9,8371,177 5 4.8 75% Below average
12504Annandale On Hudson 9613,286 0–2 — — Not published
12506Bangall —28 0–2 — — Not published
12507Barrytown 22748 0–2 — — Not published
12510Billings —22 0–2 — — Not published
12514Clinton Corners 3,107171 0–2 — — Not published
12527Glenham 4022 0–2 — — Not published
12531Holmes 2,337475 0–2 — — Not published
12574Rhinecliff 61984 0–2 — — Not published
12580Staatsburg 4,5421,052 0–2 — — Not published
12581Stanfordville 1,914245 0–2 — — Not published
12582Stormville 5,786332 0–2 — — Not published
12585Verbank 1,144103 0–2 — — Not published
12592Wassaic 1,226182 0–2 — — Not published
12594Wingdale 4,222555 0–2 — — Not published
12602Poughkeepsie —67 0–2 — — Not published
12604Poughkeepsie 2,3163,165 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Poughkeepsie

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Poughkeepsie retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Poughkeepsie retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Poughkeepsie retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Dutchess County and restaurants

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722511 — full-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 291 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.39 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.