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Middlesex County, MA — Nail salons Saturation

How many nail salons exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 98 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Nail salons · Manicure & pedicure studios. Counted together because official statistics use one 812113 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 1.35× the U.S. rate (between 1.35× and 1.83× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 59 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 44 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Middlesex County nail salons — 135–183% of the U.S. rate

244 nail salons are counted in Middlesex County — 1.1 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 135% of the U.S. rate of 0.9.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 67% between 2015 and 2023 (114 → 190). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 02420 (Lexington), 01864 (North Reading), 02461 (Newton Highlands) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 02453 (Waltham), 02474 (Arlington), 01701 (Framingham).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 273 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Middlesex County sits at 135% of the U.S. rate for nail salons. 44 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 135% and 183% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 02420 and 01864; the lowest measured density is in 02453 and 02474.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing nail salons and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Nail salons
244–362
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (59 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.1
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.9
per 10,000 present
County index
1.35×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
273
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,653,842
83 ZIPs with data
Workers
958,530
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,668,956
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.5%
+41,378 people
Net migration 2024
+19,403
international +29,046, domestic −9,643
Jobs located here
944,369
LODES 2022, −0.8% since 2019

Middlesex County had an estimated 1,668,956 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.5% more than in 2020 (+41,378). In the latest year it gained 24,024 people: births minus deaths +4,525, international migration +29,046, domestic migration −9,643. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

944,369 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−0.8% since 2019), and 822,882 employed residents lived there (−2.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01432 Ayer
+10.7%
01748 Hopkinton
+10.0%
02149 Everett
+8.5%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01464 Shirley
−8.6%
01821 Billerica
−8.1%
01803 Burlington
−5.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
639
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$19.0M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$30K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more nail salons in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 67% since 2015

Number of nail salons in Middlesex County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

114
2015
154
2018
167
2020
178
2021
186
2022
190
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
02420 Lexington
575%
01864 North Reading
490%
02461 Newton Highlands
419%
02460 Newtonville
416%
01824 Chelmsford
385%
02180 Stoneham
346%
01876 Tewksbury
306%
01754 Maynard
288%
01886 Westford
279%
02458 Newton
274%
01776 Sudbury
265%
01887 Wilmington
256%
01803 Burlington
253%
01760 Natick
247%
01879 Tyngsboro
244%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
02453 Waltham
82%
02474 Arlington
115%
01701 Framingham
126%
01852 Lowell
140%
02459 Newton Center
143%
02149 Everett
144%
01752 Marlborough
148%
02143 Somerville
151%
02145 Somerville
153%
02141 Cambridge
159%
02472 Watertown
159%
01720 Acton
163%
01851 Lowell
176%
01730 Bedford
178%
02176 Melrose
182%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few nail salons may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersNail salonsIndex
01434Devens Employment hub 1,5644,918 0–2 —
02142Cambridge Employment hub 4,73731,327 0–2 —
02451Waltham Employment hub 17,39359,760 0–2 —
02462Newton Lower Falls Employment hub 1,4705,891 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = nail salons per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersNail salons Per 10kIndexStatus
02420Lexington 16,2154,413 9 4.9 575% Very high density
01864North Reading 15,7656,881 8 4.2 490% Very high density
02461Newton Highlands 6,9752,905 3 3.6 419% Very high density
02460Newtonville 10,0992,429 4 3.5 416% Very high density
01824Chelmsford 26,65020,094 12 3.3 385% Very high density
02180Stoneham 23,3557,742 8 2.9 346% Very high density
01876Tewksbury 31,00414,955 10 2.6 306% Very high density
01754Maynard 10,7123,080 3 2.4 288% Very high density
01886Westford 24,6909,553 7 2.4 279% Very high density
02458Newton 13,0508,239 4 2.3 274% Very high density
01776Sudbury 19,2705,788 5 2.3 265% Very high density
01887Wilmington 23,33626,779 8 2.2 256% Very high density
01803Burlington 26,27440,471 10 2.2 253% Very high density
01760Natick 36,78221,689 10 2.1 247% High density
01879Tyngsboro 12,5503,772 3 2.1 244% High density
01880Wakefield 27,79314,674 7 2.0 234% High density
02478Belmont 27,1757,481 6 1.9 228% High density
02155Medford 61,73022,673 14 1.9 225% High density
01821Billerica 30,14315,332 7 1.9 218% High density
01867Reading 25,6126,756 5 1.7 203% High density
01826Dracut 32,6295,452 6 1.7 200% High density
01801Woburn 41,93947,661 11 1.7 197% High density
02148Malden 65,90612,471 12 1.7 196% High density
02176Melrose 29,6505,241 5 1.5 182% High density
01730Bedford 14,70723,516 4 1.5 178% High density
01851Lowell 33,40313,356 6 1.5 176% High density
01720Acton 23,52610,629 4 1.4 163% High density
02472Watertown 35,62017,292 6 1.4 159% High density
02141Cambridge 14,51715,363 3 1.4 159% High density
02145Somerville 27,4956,587 4 1.3 153% High density
02143Somerville 25,51311,442 4 1.3 151% High density
01752Marlborough 41,64743,679 8 1.3 148% Above average
02149Everett 50,04514,514 7 1.2 144% Above average
02459Newton Center 18,44912,295 3 1.2 143% Above average
01852Lowell 37,1449,846 5 1.2 140% Above average
01701Framingham 32,61828,173 5 1.1 126% Above average
02474Arlington 28,6423,974 3 1.0 115% Above average
02453Waltham 31,59122,576 3 0.7 82% Below average
01702Framingham 39,78912,859 ~2 0.4 51% Below average
01431Ashby 3,211224 0–2 — — Not published
01432Ayer 8,5214,132 0–2 — — Not published
01434Devens 1,5644,918 0–2 — — Not published
01450Groton 11,3561,923 0–2 — — Not published
01460Littleton 10,2806,243 0–2 — — Not published
01463Pepperell 11,6971,887 0–2 — — Not published
01464Shirley 6,9761,571 0–2 — — Not published
01469Townsend 6,8201,363 0–2 — — Not published
01471Groton —360 0–2 — — Not published
01472West Groton —147 0–2 — — Not published
01474West Townsend 2,280106 0–2 — — Not published
01703Framingham —27 0–2 — — Not published
01704Framingham —12 0–2 — — Not published
01718Acton 4047 0–2 — — Not published
01719Boxborough 5,4963,309 0–2 — — Not published
01721Ashland 18,8734,438 0–2 — — Not published
01731Hanscom Afb 2,110168 0–2 — — Not published
01741Carlisle 5,239556 0–2 — — Not published
01742Concord 18,44811,358 0–2 — — Not published
01746Holliston 15,0945,337 0–2 — — Not published
01748Hopkinton 19,35813,167 0–2 — — Not published
01749Hudson 20,0779,145 0–2 — — Not published
01770Sherborn 4,427471 0–2 — — Not published
01773Lincoln 4,8911,992 0–2 — — Not published
01775Stow 7,165957 0–2 — — Not published
01778Wayland 14,0333,272 0–2 — — Not published
01805Burlington —4,971 0–2 — — Not published
01827Dunstable 3,408224 0–2 — — Not published
01850Lowell 17,7401,500 0–2 — — Not published
01853Lowell —406 0–2 — — Not published
01854Lowell 30,0817,284 0–2 — — Not published
01862North Billerica 12,12911,110 0–2 — — Not published
01863North Chelmsford 9,7962,960 0–2 — — Not published
01865Nutting Lake —5 0–2 — — Not published
01866Pinehurst —16 0–2 — — Not published
01888Woburn —534 0–2 — — Not published
01890Winchester 23,4066,381 0–2 — — Not published
02138Cambridge 38,50946,771 0–2 — — Not published
02139Cambridge 40,03357,246 0–2 — — Not published
02140Cambridge 21,2049,129 0–2 — — Not published
02142Cambridge 4,73731,327 0–2 — — Not published
02144Somerville 25,4485,471 0–2 — — Not published
02153Medford —168 0–2 — — Not published
02238Cambridge —2,153 0–2 — — Not published
02421Lexington 18,08020,781 0–2 — — Not published
02451Waltham 17,39359,760 0–2 — — Not published
02452Waltham 15,8088,200 0–2 — — Not published
02454Waltham —592 0–2 — — Not published
02455North Waltham —34 0–2 — — Not published
02462Newton Lower Falls 1,4705,891 0–2 — — Not published
02464Newton Upper Falls 3,8333,819 0–2 — — Not published
02465West Newton 11,6972,691 0–2 — — Not published
02466Auburndale 8,67916,302 0–2 — — Not published
02467Chestnut Hill 23,00114,964 0–2 — — Not published
02468Waban 5,773345 0–2 — — Not published
02471Watertown —772 0–2 — — Not published
02475Arlington Heights —49 0–2 — — Not published
02476Arlington 17,7083,887 0–2 — — Not published
02493Weston 11,5793,311 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Waltham

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Waltham retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Waltham retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Waltham retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Middlesex County and nail salons

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 812113 — nail salons. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 273 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.85 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.