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Lane County, OR — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 35 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: High density — 1.52× the U.S. rate (between 1.52× and 1.96× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 23 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 21 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Lane County coffee shops — 152–196% of the U.S. rate

143 coffee shops are counted in Lane County — 3.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 152% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 40% between 2015 and 2023 (93 → 130). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 97401 (Eugene), 97477 (Springfield), 97439 (Florence) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 97405 (Eugene), 97478 (Springfield), 97424 (Cottage Grove).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 126 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Lane County sits at 152% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 21 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 152% and 196% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 97401 and 97477; the lowest measured density is in 97405 and 97478.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
143–189
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (23 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
3.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.52×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
126
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
383,964
33 ZIPs with data
Workers
128,323
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
382,396
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−0.5%
−1,825 people
Net migration 2024
+1,568
international +1,084, domestic +484
Jobs located here
153,714
LODES 2022, −2.1% since 2019

Lane County had an estimated 382,396 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.5% fewer than in 2020 (−1,825). In the latest year it gained 245 people: births minus deaths −1,322, international migration +1,084, domestic migration +484. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

153,714 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−2.1% since 2019), and 155,793 employed residents lived there (−1.9% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
97408 Eugene
+15.4%
97401 Eugene
+7.9%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
12
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$448K
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$37K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 40% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Lane County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

93
2015
111
2018
114
2020
112
2021
117
2022
130
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
97401 Eugene
311%
97477 Springfield
206%
97439 Florence
183%
97426 Creswell
174%
97403 Eugene
168%
97402 Eugene
153%
97448 Junction City
150%
97408 Eugene
148%
97404 Eugene
131%
97424 Cottage Grove
95%
97478 Springfield
79%
97405 Eugene
75%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
97405 Eugene
75%
97478 Springfield
79%
97424 Cottage Grove
95%
97404 Eugene
131%
97408 Eugene
148%
97448 Junction City
150%
97402 Eugene
153%
97403 Eugene
168%
97426 Creswell
174%
97439 Florence
183%
97477 Springfield
206%
97401 Eugene
311%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
97401Eugene 49,43732,540 43 6.5 311% Very high density
97477Springfield 37,53421,982 21 4.3 206% High density
97439Florence 16,0254,263 7 3.9 183% High density
97426Creswell 10,1861,474 4 3.7 174% High density
97403Eugene 15,3553,258 6 3.5 168% High density
97402Eugene 53,82328,726 22 3.2 153% High density
97448Junction City 14,3233,026 5 3.2 150% High density
97408Eugene 15,4207,628 6 3.1 148% Above average
97404Eugene 34,2444,072 10 2.8 131% Above average
97424Cottage Grove 18,3573,505 4 2.0 95% Below average
97478Springfield 39,3735,700 7 1.7 79% Below average
97405Eugene 46,9337,962 8 1.6 75% Below average
97412Blachly 74440 0–2 — — Not published
97413Blue River 818137 0–2 — — Not published
97419Cheshire 1,12373 0–2 — — Not published
97430Deadwood 36713 0–2 — — Not published
97431Dexter 2,366161 0–2 — — Not published
97434Dorena 89038 0–2 — — Not published
97437Elmira 2,632229 0–2 — — Not published
97438Fall Creek 1,311389 0–2 — — Not published
97440Eugene —502 0–2 — — Not published
97452Lowell 1,703183 0–2 — — Not published
97453Mapleton 96546 0–2 — — Not published
97454Marcola 1,168344 0–2 — — Not published
97455Pleasant Hill 2,461330 0–2 — — Not published
97461Noti 604328 0–2 — — Not published
97463Oakridge 3,652302 0–2 — — Not published
97475Springfield —76 0–2 — — Not published
97480Swisshome 29533 0–2 — — Not published
97487Veneta 8,4981,318 0–2 — — Not published
97488Vida 60457 0–2 — — Not published
97489Walterville 82164 0–2 — — Not published
97490Walton 4609 0–2 — — Not published
97492Westfir 98111 0–2 — — Not published
97493Westlake 49182 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Eugene

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Eugene retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Eugene retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Eugene retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Lane County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 126 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.