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Dutchess County, NY — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 36 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 1.06× the U.S. rate (between 1.06× and 1.72× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 27 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 24 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Dutchess County coffee shops — 106–172% of the U.S. rate

77 coffee shops are counted in Dutchess County — 2.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 106% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 38% between 2015 and 2023 (50 → 69). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 12572 (Rhinebeck), 12508 (Beacon), 12571 (Red Hook) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 12538 (Hyde Park), 12533 (Hopewell Junction), 12603 (Poughkeepsie).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 97 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Dutchess County sits at 106% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 24 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 106% and 172% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 12572 and 12508; the lowest measured density is in 12538 and 12533.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
77–131
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (27 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.06×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
97
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
300,448
33 ZIPs with data
Workers
91,489
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
299,963
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+1.4%
+4,050 people
Net migration 2024
+1,741
international +1,707, domestic +34
Jobs located here
109,709
LODES 2022, −4.9% since 2019

Dutchess County had an estimated 299,963 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.4% more than in 2020 (+4,050). In the latest year it gained 1,739 people: births minus deaths −8, international migration +1,707, domestic migration +34. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

109,709 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−4.9% since 2019), and 133,387 employed residents lived there (−2.0% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
10
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$324K
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$32K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 38% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Dutchess County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

50
2015
43
2018
49
2020
49
2021
68
2022
69
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
12572 Rhinebeck
255%
12508 Beacon
246%
12571 Red Hook
212%
12590 Wappingers Falls
155%
12601 Poughkeepsie
125%
12524 Fishkill
124%
12603 Poughkeepsie
121%
12533 Hopewell Junction
110%
12538 Hyde Park
90%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
12538 Hyde Park
90%
12533 Hopewell Junction
110%
12603 Poughkeepsie
121%
12524 Fishkill
124%
12601 Poughkeepsie
125%
12590 Wappingers Falls
155%
12571 Red Hook
212%
12508 Beacon
246%
12572 Rhinebeck
255%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
12504Annandale On Hudson Employment hub 9613,286 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
12572Rhinebeck 8,8694,634 6 5.4 255% Very high density
12508Beacon 19,5663,404 11 5.2 246% High density
12571Red Hook 10,1082,223 5 4.5 212% High density
12590Wappingers Falls 35,7128,213 13 3.3 155% High density
12601Poughkeepsie 44,16426,203 15 2.6 125% Above average
12524Fishkill 15,0268,292 5 2.6 124% Above average
12603Poughkeepsie 42,3049,339 12 2.6 121% Above average
12533Hopewell Junction 27,3255,847 7 2.3 110% Above average
12538Hyde Park 14,3913,022 3 1.9 90% Below average
12501Amenia 2,476728 0–2 — — Not published
12504Annandale On Hudson 9613,286 0–2 — — Not published
12506Bangall —28 0–2 — — Not published
12507Barrytown 22748 0–2 — — Not published
12510Billings —22 0–2 — — Not published
12514Clinton Corners 3,107171 0–2 — — Not published
12522Dover Plains 4,959796 0–2 — — Not published
12527Glenham 4022 0–2 — — Not published
12531Holmes 2,337475 0–2 — — Not published
12540Lagrangeville 8,8561,858 0–2 — — Not published
12545Millbrook 4,3381,864 0–2 — — Not published
12546Millerton 2,706992 0–2 — — Not published
12564Pawling 7,7341,610 0–2 — — Not published
12567Pine Plains 2,695357 0–2 — — Not published
12569Pleasant Valley 9,8371,177 0–2 — — Not published
12570Poughquag 6,698433 0–2 — — Not published
12574Rhinecliff 61984 0–2 — — Not published
12578Salt Point 2,249509 0–2 — — Not published
12580Staatsburg 4,5421,052 0–2 — — Not published
12581Stanfordville 1,914245 0–2 — — Not published
12582Stormville 5,786332 0–2 — — Not published
12583Tivoli 1,994268 0–2 — — Not published
12585Verbank 1,144103 0–2 — — Not published
12592Wassaic 1,226182 0–2 — — Not published
12594Wingdale 4,222555 0–2 — — Not published
12602Poughkeepsie —67 0–2 — — Not published
12604Poughkeepsie 2,3163,165 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Poughkeepsie

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Poughkeepsie retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Poughkeepsie retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Poughkeepsie retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Dutchess County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 97 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.