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Somerset County, NJ — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 29 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.72× the U.S. rate (between 0.72× and 1.12× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 21 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 17 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Somerset County coffee shops — 72–112% of the U.S. rate

61 coffee shops are counted in Somerset County — 1.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 72% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 3% between 2015 and 2023 (63 → 61). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 07924 (Bernardsville), 08876 (Somerville), 07059 (Warren) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 08873 (Somerset), 07920 (Basking Ridge), 08807 (Bridgewater).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 92 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Somerset County sits at 72% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 17 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 72% and 112% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 07924 and 08876; the lowest measured density is in 08873 and 07920.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
61–103
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (21 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
0.72×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
92
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
314,362
25 ZIPs with data
Workers
174,691
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
357,467
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+3.7%
+12,679 people
Net migration 2024
+4,644
international +4,661, domestic −17
Jobs located here
195,653
LODES 2022, −0.5% since 2019

Somerset County had an estimated 357,467 residents on July 1, 2024 — 3.7% more than in 2020 (+12,679). In the latest year it gained 5,372 people: births minus deaths +731, international migration +4,661, domestic migration −17. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

195,653 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−0.5% since 2019), and 178,112 employed residents lived there (+1.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
08805 Bound Brook
+14.8%
08844 Hillsborough
+12.3%
08880 South Bound Brook
+7.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
18
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$1.4M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$77K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 3% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Somerset County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

63
2015
57
2018
60
2020
62
2021
59
2022
61
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
07924 Bernardsville
263%
08876 Somerville
185%
07059 Warren
159%
08805 Bound Brook
142%
08844 Hillsborough
76%
08807 Bridgewater
76%
07920 Basking Ridge
65%
08873 Somerset
50%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
08873 Somerset
50%
07920 Basking Ridge
65%
08807 Bridgewater
76%
08844 Hillsborough
76%
08805 Bound Brook
142%
07059 Warren
159%
08876 Somerville
185%
07924 Bernardsville
263%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
07939Lyons Employment hub 3221,094 0–2 —
07977Peapack Employment hub 9172,799 0–2 —
08528Kingston Employment hub 321666 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
07924Bernardsville 7,7132,620 5 5.5 263% Very high density
08876Somerville 23,38025,130 14 3.9 185% High density
07059Warren 16,8118,160 7 3.4 159% High density
08805Bound Brook 14,0665,339 5 3.0 142% Above average
08844Hillsborough 44,46311,218 8 1.6 76% Below average
08807Bridgewater 39,56034,211 9 1.6 76% Below average
07920Basking Ridge 28,75315,374 5 1.4 65% Below average
08873Somerset 56,32738,103 8 1.1 50% Below average
07069Watchung 6,6233,823 0–2 — — Not published
07921Bedminster 7,7006,937 0–2 — — Not published
07931Far Hills 2,985668 0–2 — — Not published
07934Gladstone 1,2931,482 0–2 — — Not published
07938Liberty Corner —1,202 0–2 — — Not published
07939Lyons 3221,094 0–2 — — Not published
07977Peapack 9172,799 0–2 — — Not published
07978Pluckemin —90 0–2 — — Not published
08502Belle Mead 11,8491,899 0–2 — — Not published
08504Blawenburg —33 0–2 — — Not published
08528Kingston 321666 0–2 — — Not published
08553Rocky Hill 819233 0–2 — — Not published
08558Skillman 7,6482,965 0–2 — — Not published
08821Flagtown 28353 0–2 — — Not published
08823Franklin Park 8,884993 0–2 — — Not published
08835Manville 10,9211,362 0–2 — — Not published
08836Martinsville 3,855632 0–2 — — Not published
08853Neshanic Station 5,634637 0–2 — — Not published
08869Raritan 8,3687,966 0–2 — — Not published
08875Somerset —890 0–2 — — Not published
08880South Bound Brook 4,867327 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Somerset

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Somerset retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Somerset retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Somerset retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Somerset County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 92 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.