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Middlesex County, MA — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 98 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.35× the U.S. rate (between 1.35× and 1.44× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 36 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 21 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Middlesex County coffee shops — 135–144% of the U.S. rate

606 coffee shops are counted in Middlesex County — 2.8 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 135% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 20% between 2015 and 2023 (474 → 567). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 02138 (Cambridge), 02460 (Newtonville), 01760 (Natick) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 01821 (Billerica), 01854 (Lowell), 02476 (Arlington).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 531 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Middlesex County sits at 135% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 21 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 135% and 144% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 02138 and 02460; the lowest measured density is in 01821 and 01854.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
606–678
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (36 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.8
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.35×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
531
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,653,842
83 ZIPs with data
Workers
958,530
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,668,956
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.5%
+41,378 people
Net migration 2024
+19,403
international +29,046, domestic −9,643
Jobs located here
944,369
LODES 2022, −0.8% since 2019

Middlesex County had an estimated 1,668,956 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.5% more than in 2020 (+41,378). In the latest year it gained 24,024 people: births minus deaths +4,525, international migration +29,046, domestic migration −9,643. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

944,369 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−0.8% since 2019), and 822,882 employed residents lived there (−2.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01432 Ayer
+10.7%
01748 Hopkinton
+10.0%
02149 Everett
+8.5%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01464 Shirley
−8.6%
01821 Billerica
−8.1%
01803 Burlington
−5.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
49
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$2.5M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$52K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 20% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Middlesex County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

474
2015
471
2018
483
2020
499
2021
513
2022
567
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
02138 Cambridge
300%
02460 Newtonville
294%
01760 Natick
270%
02452 Waltham
263%
01864 North Reading
248%
02420 Lexington
232%
01450 Groton
232%
02143 Somerville
228%
02458 Newton
222%
02459 Newton Center
213%
01749 Hudson
212%
02478 Belmont
200%
01469 Townsend
190%
01862 North Billerica
188%
02474 Arlington
186%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01821 Billerica
38%
01854 Lowell
71%
02476 Arlington
73%
01876 Tewksbury
74%
02149 Everett
75%
01826 Dracut
81%
02453 Waltham
89%
01702 Framingham
93%
02467 Chestnut Hill
94%
01886 Westford
97%
01879 Tyngsboro
99%
01701 Framingham
102%
01850 Lowell
103%
02148 Malden
105%
02465 West Newton
109%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
02142Cambridge Employment hub 4,73731,327 7 163%
02451Waltham Employment hub 17,39359,760 7 70%
01434Devens Employment hub 1,5644,918 0–2 —
02462Newton Lower Falls Employment hub 1,4705,891 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
01827Dunstable 3,408224 4 11.4 540% Very high density
02464Newton Upper Falls 3,8333,819 5 8.7 414% Very high density
02138Cambridge 38,50946,771 39 6.3 300% Very high density
02460Newtonville 10,0992,429 7 6.2 294% Very high density
01760Natick 36,78221,689 27 5.7 270% Very high density
02452Waltham 15,8088,200 11 5.5 263% Very high density
01864North Reading 15,7656,881 10 5.2 248% High density
02420Lexington 16,2154,413 9 4.9 232% High density
01450Groton 11,3561,923 6 4.9 232% High density
02143Somerville 25,51311,442 15 4.8 228% High density
02458Newton 13,0508,239 8 4.7 222% High density
02459Newton Center 18,44912,295 11 4.5 213% High density
01749Hudson 20,0779,145 11 4.5 212% High density
02478Belmont 27,1757,481 13 4.2 200% High density
01469Townsend 6,8201,363 3 4.0 190% High density
01862North Billerica 12,12911,110 7 4.0 188% High density
02474Arlington 28,6423,974 12 3.9 186% High density
02155Medford 61,73022,673 28 3.8 182% High density
01778Wayland 14,0333,272 6 3.8 182% High density
01867Reading 25,6126,756 11 3.8 180% High density
01721Ashland 18,8734,438 8 3.8 180% High density
01460Littleton 10,2806,243 5 3.7 177% High density
02176Melrose 29,6505,241 12 3.7 177% High density
02180Stoneham 23,3557,742 10 3.7 175% High density
01803Burlington 26,27440,471 17 3.7 174% High density
02141Cambridge 14,51715,363 8 3.6 171% High density
01852Lowell 37,1449,846 15 3.6 170% High density
02461Newton Highlands 6,9752,905 3 3.6 169% High density
02144Somerville 25,4485,471 10 3.5 169% High density
02140Cambridge 21,2049,129 9 3.5 166% High density
02142Cambridge 4,73731,327 7 3.4 163% High density
01824Chelmsford 26,65020,094 12 3.3 155% High density
01887Wilmington 23,33626,779 12 3.3 155% High density
01776Sudbury 19,2705,788 7 3.2 150% High density
01880Wakefield 27,79314,674 11 3.1 149% Above average
01730Bedford 14,70723,516 8 3.0 144% Above average
02145Somerville 27,4956,587 9 2.9 139% Above average
01742Concord 18,44811,358 7 2.9 138% Above average
01752Marlborough 41,64743,679 18 2.8 135% Above average
01720Acton 23,52610,629 8 2.8 132% Above average
02472Watertown 35,62017,292 12 2.7 129% Above average
01748Hopkinton 19,35813,167 7 2.7 128% Above average
01890Winchester 23,4066,381 7 2.6 125% Above average
02139Cambridge 40,03357,246 17 2.5 118% Above average
01801Woburn 41,93947,661 16 2.4 116% Above average
02466Auburndale 8,67916,302 4 2.4 113% Above average
02465West Newton 11,6972,691 3 2.3 109% Above average
02148Malden 65,90612,471 16 2.2 105% Above average
01850Lowell 17,7401,500 4 2.2 103% Above average
01701Framingham 32,61828,173 10 2.1 102% Above average
01879Tyngsboro 12,5503,772 3 2.1 99% Below average
01886Westford 24,6909,553 6 2.0 97% Below average
02467Chestnut Hill 23,00114,964 6 2.0 94% Below average
01702Framingham 39,78912,859 9 1.9 93% Below average
02453Waltham 31,59122,576 8 1.9 89% Below average
01826Dracut 32,6295,452 6 1.7 81% Below average
02149Everett 50,04514,514 9 1.6 75% Below average
01876Tewksbury 31,00414,955 6 1.6 74% Below average
02476Arlington 17,7083,887 3 1.5 73% Below average
01854Lowell 30,0817,284 5 1.5 71% Below average
02451Waltham 17,39359,760 7 1.5 70% Below average
01821Billerica 30,14315,332 3 0.8 38% Far below average
01431Ashby 3,211224 0–2 — — Not published
01432Ayer 8,5214,132 0–2 — — Not published
01434Devens 1,5644,918 0–2 — — Not published
01463Pepperell 11,6971,887 0–2 — — Not published
01464Shirley 6,9761,571 0–2 — — Not published
01471Groton —360 0–2 — — Not published
01472West Groton —147 0–2 — — Not published
01474West Townsend 2,280106 0–2 — — Not published
01703Framingham —27 0–2 — — Not published
01704Framingham —12 0–2 — — Not published
01718Acton 4047 0–2 — — Not published
01719Boxborough 5,4963,309 0–2 — — Not published
01731Hanscom Afb 2,110168 0–2 — — Not published
01741Carlisle 5,239556 0–2 — — Not published
01746Holliston 15,0945,337 0–2 — — Not published
01754Maynard 10,7123,080 0–2 — — Not published
01770Sherborn 4,427471 0–2 — — Not published
01773Lincoln 4,8911,992 0–2 — — Not published
01775Stow 7,165957 0–2 — — Not published
01805Burlington —4,971 0–2 — — Not published
01851Lowell 33,40313,356 0–2 — — Not published
01853Lowell —406 0–2 — — Not published
01863North Chelmsford 9,7962,960 0–2 — — Not published
01865Nutting Lake —5 0–2 — — Not published
01866Pinehurst —16 0–2 — — Not published
01888Woburn —534 0–2 — — Not published
02153Medford —168 0–2 — — Not published
02238Cambridge —2,153 0–2 — — Not published
02421Lexington 18,08020,781 0–2 — — Not published
02454Waltham —592 0–2 — — Not published
02455North Waltham —34 0–2 — — Not published
02462Newton Lower Falls 1,4705,891 0–2 — — Not published
02468Waban 5,773345 0–2 — — Not published
02471Watertown —772 0–2 — — Not published
02475Arlington Heights —49 0–2 — — Not published
02493Weston 11,5793,311 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Waltham

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Waltham retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Waltham retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Waltham retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Middlesex County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 531 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.