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Hillsborough, FL — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 84 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.62× the U.S. rate (between 0.62× and 0.73× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 54 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 23 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Below the U.S. rate   Hillsborough coffee shops — 62–73% of the U.S. rate

250 coffee shops are counted in Hillsborough — 1.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 62% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 21% between 2015 and 2023 (157 → 190). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 33618 (Tampa), 33559 (Lutz), 33629 (Tampa) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 33624 (Tampa), 33610 (Tampa), 33547 (Lithia).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 278 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Hillsborough sits at 62% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 23 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 62% and 73% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 33618 and 33559; the lowest measured density is in 33624 and 33610.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
250–358
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (54 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
0.62×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
278
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,564,112
53 ZIPs with data
Workers
712,069
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,581,426
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+7.8%
+115,106 people
Net migration 2024
+19,297
international +30,485, domestic −11,188
Jobs located here
789,751
LODES 2022, +7.4% since 2019

Hillsborough had an estimated 1,581,426 residents on July 1, 2024 — 7.8% more than in 2020 (+115,106). In the latest year it gained 24,113 people: births minus deaths +4,846, international migration +30,485, domestic migration −11,188. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

789,751 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+7.4% since 2019), and 679,587 employed residents lived there (+6.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
33598 Wimauma
+63.7%
33556 Odessa
+54.2%
33573 Sun City Center
+52.6%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
33596 Valrico
−10.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
118
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$5.1M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$43K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 21% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Hillsborough across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

157
2015
157
2018
177
2020
180
2021
197
2022
190
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
33618 Tampa
174%
33559 Lutz
172%
33629 Tampa
163%
33563 Plant City
149%
33602 Tampa
146%
33596 Valrico
146%
33612 Tampa
125%
33626 Tampa
121%
33606 Tampa
114%
33511 Brandon
108%
33617 Tampa
107%
33625 Tampa
106%
33611 Tampa
92%
33605 Tampa
92%
33609 Tampa
89%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
33624 Tampa
32%
33610 Tampa
33%
33547 Lithia
43%
33634 Tampa
44%
33579 Riverview
47%
33556 Odessa
47%
33604 Tampa
55%
33615 Tampa
56%
33619 Tampa
64%
33549 Lutz
66%
33572 Apollo Beach
67%
33635 Tampa
68%
33647 Tampa
88%
33578 Riverview
89%
33609 Tampa
89%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
33607Tampa Employment hub 25,29187,744 12 83%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
33618Tampa 27,77115,488 13 3.7 174% High density
33559Lutz 18,8316,456 8 3.6 172% High density
33629Tampa 27,7108,664 11 3.4 163% High density
33563Plant City 25,89611,833 10 3.1 149% Above average
33602Tampa 21,45241,650 13 3.1 146% Above average
33596Valrico 27,7573,165 9 3.1 146% Above average
33612Tampa 49,00531,340 17 2.6 125% Above average
33626Tampa 30,5759,335 9 2.6 121% Above average
33606Tampa 24,57026,085 9 2.4 114% Above average
33511Brandon 62,13824,857 17 2.3 108% Above average
33617Tampa 47,85110,575 12 2.3 107% Above average
33625Tampa 29,96711,693 8 2.2 106% Above average
33611Tampa 36,8109,175 8 1.9 92% Below average
33605Tampa 16,03019,797 5 1.9 92% Below average
33609Tampa 18,53526,742 6 1.9 89% Below average
33578Riverview 60,65118,280 13 1.9 89% Below average
33647Tampa 74,84422,948 16 1.9 88% Below average
33607Tampa 25,29187,744 12 1.7 83% Below average
33635Tampa 19,1343,504 3 1.4 68% Below average
33572Apollo Beach 26,4953,977 4 1.4 67% Below average
33549Lutz 18,1787,023 3 1.4 66% Below average
33619Tampa 41,39650,283 9 1.4 64% Below average
33615Tampa 47,2457,839 6 1.2 56% Below average
33604Tampa 40,0557,063 5 1.1 55% Below average
33556Odessa 35,7559,241 4 1.0 47% Far below average
33579Riverview 49,4702,769 5 1.0 47% Far below average
33634Tampa 21,86242,884 4 0.9 44% Far below average
33547Lithia 31,4313,935 3 0.9 43% Far below average
33610Tampa 46,58749,194 5 0.7 33% Far below average
33624Tampa 41,3467,390 3 0.7 32% Far below average
33503Balm 89120 0–2 — — Not published
33508Brandon —44 0–2 — — Not published
33509Brandon —100 0–2 — — Not published
33510Brandon 30,5783,705 0–2 — — Not published
33527Dover 17,3644,039 0–2 — — Not published
33534Gibsonton 17,7404,093 0–2 — — Not published
33548Lutz 8,9673,113 0–2 — — Not published
33550Mango 022 0–2 — — Not published
33558Lutz 33,1656,461 0–2 — — Not published
33564Plant City —360 0–2 — — Not published
33565Plant City 18,1081,927 0–2 — — Not published
33566Plant City 24,52110,851 0–2 — — Not published
33567Plant City 12,5621,696 0–2 — — Not published
33568Riverview —290 0–2 — — Not published
33569Riverview 27,8676,025 0–2 — — Not published
33570Ruskin 33,3196,838 0–2 — — Not published
33571Sun City Center —15 0–2 — — Not published
33573Sun City Center 35,3625,659 0–2 — — Not published
33575Ruskin —5 0–2 — — Not published
33583Seffner —140 0–2 — — Not published
33584Seffner 28,5797,837 0–2 — — Not published
33586Sun City —36 0–2 — — Not published
33592Thonotosassa 12,3333,094 0–2 — — Not published
33594Valrico 37,3613,345 0–2 — — Not published
33595Valrico —8 0–2 — — Not published
33598Wimauma 32,8201,883 0–2 — — Not published
33601Tampa —447 0–2 — — Not published
33603Tampa 19,8695,368 0–2 — — Not published
33608Tampa —437 0–2 — — Not published
33613Tampa 37,59112,875 0–2 — — Not published
33614Tampa 47,29823,112 0–2 — — Not published
33616Tampa 15,8301,384 0–2 — — Not published
33620Tampa 7,298164 0–2 — — Not published
33621Tampa 2,3931,579 0–2 — — Not published
33622Tampa —141 0–2 — — Not published
33630Tampa —30 0–2 — — Not published
33637Tampa 17,65816,072 0–2 — — Not published
33646Tampa —63 0–2 — — Not published
33672Tampa —29 0–2 — — Not published
33673Tampa —109 0–2 — — Not published
33674Tampa —153 0–2 — — Not published
33675Tampa —217 0–2 — — Not published
33677Tampa —26 0–2 — — Not published
33679Tampa —46 0–2 — — Not published
33680Tampa —34 0–2 — — Not published
33681Tampa —18 0–2 — — Not published
33682Tampa —40 0–2 — — Not published
33684Tampa —135 0–2 — — Not published
33685Tampa —168 0–2 — — Not published
33686Tampa —12 0–2 — — Not published
33687Tampa —104 0–2 — — Not published
33688Tampa —48 0–2 — — Not published
33689Tampa —94 0–2 — — Not published
33694Tampa —27 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Tampa

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Tampa retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Tampa retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Tampa retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Hillsborough and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 278 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.