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Douglas County, CO — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 15 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.07× the U.S. rate (between 1.07× and 1.20× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 7 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 6 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Douglas County coffee shops — 107–120% of the U.S. rate

96 coffee shops are counted in Douglas County — 2.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 107% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 69% between 2015 and 2023 (55 → 93). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 80124 (Lone Tree), 80129 (Littleton), 80108 (Castle Rock) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 80109 (Castle Rock), 80104 (Castle Rock), 80126 (Littleton).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 116 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Douglas County sits at 107% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 6 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 107% and 120% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 80124 and 80129; the lowest measured density is in 80109 and 80104.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
96–110
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (7 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
1.07×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
116
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
373,996
14 ZIPs with data
Workers
106,688
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
393,995
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+9.3%
+33,668 people
Net migration 2024
+7,020
international +1,859, domestic +5,161
Jobs located here
138,928
LODES 2022, +5.9% since 2019

Douglas County had an estimated 393,995 residents on July 1, 2024 — 9.3% more than in 2020 (+33,668). In the latest year it gained 8,854 people: births minus deaths +1,820, international migration +1,859, domestic migration +5,161. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

138,928 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+5.9% since 2019), and 192,098 employed residents lived there (+8.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
80125 Littleton
+48.2%
80108 Castle Rock
+32.5%
80104 Castle Rock
+22.1%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
80130 Littleton
−14.7%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
17
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$288K
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$17K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 69% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in Douglas County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

55
2015
59
2018
72
2020
75
2021
78
2022
93
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
80124 Lone Tree
203%
80129 Littleton
193%
80108 Castle Rock
176%
80138 Parker
128%
80134 Parker
113%
80126 Littleton
106%
80104 Castle Rock
66%
80109 Castle Rock
46%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
80109 Castle Rock
46%
80104 Castle Rock
66%
80126 Littleton
106%
80134 Parker
113%
80138 Parker
128%
80108 Castle Rock
176%
80129 Littleton
193%
80124 Lone Tree
203%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
80124Lone Tree 22,55520,533 14 4.3 203% High density
80129Littleton 30,22313,530 15 4.1 193% High density
80108Castle Rock 36,7307,815 15 3.7 176% High density
80138Parker 36,8957,672 11 2.7 128% Above average
80134Parker 80,30216,832 21 2.4 113% Above average
80126Littleton 44,8828,706 11 2.2 106% Above average
80104Castle Rock 38,4799,236 6 1.4 66% Below average
80109Castle Rock 28,4005,224 3 1.0 46% Far below average
80116Franktown 5,132976 0–2 — — Not published
80118Larkspur 5,632602 0–2 — — Not published
80125Littleton 15,63011,287 0–2 — — Not published
80130Littleton 24,7192,630 0–2 — — Not published
80131Louviers 27655 0–2 — — Not published
80135Sedalia 4,1411,590 0–2 — — Not published
80163Littleton —192 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Lone Tree

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Lone Tree retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Lone Tree retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Lone Tree retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Douglas County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 116 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.