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San Francisco County, CA — Coffee shops Saturation

How many coffee shops exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 38 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Coffee shops · Espresso bars · Boba / bubble tea shops · Juice & smoothie bars · Ice cream & frozen yogurt shops. Counted together because official statistics use one 722515 code.

Measured density: High density — 2.21× the U.S. rate (between 2.21× and 2.22× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 12 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 1 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

High density   San Francisco County coffee shops — 221–222% of the U.S. rate

556 coffee shops are counted in San Francisco County — 4.7 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 221% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2015 and 2023 (551 → 553).

Measured supply density is highest in 94114 (San Francisco), 94123 (San Francisco), 94133 (San Francisco) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 94134 (San Francisco), 94124 (San Francisco), 94112 (San Francisco).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 540 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: San Francisco County sits at 221% of the U.S. rate for coffee shops. 1 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 221% and 222% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 94114 and 94123; the lowest measured density is in 94134 and 94124.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing coffee shops and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Coffee shops
556–580
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (12 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
4.7
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
2.21×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
540
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
830,479
27 ZIPs with data
Workers
727,248
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
827,526
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−5.4%
−47,300 people
Net migration 2024
+7,552
international +13,146, domestic −5,594
Jobs located here
748,126
LODES 2022, −3.0% since 2019

San Francisco County had an estimated 827,526 residents on July 1, 2024 — 5.4% fewer than in 2020 (−47,300). In the latest year it gained 8,375 people: births minus deaths +818, international migration +13,146, domestic migration −5,594. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

748,126 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−3.0% since 2019), and 438,358 employed residents lived there (−9.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
94158 San Francisco
+33.8%
94102 San Francisco
+14.6%
94103 San Francisco
+13.9%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
94108 San Francisco
−20.1%
94117 San Francisco
−18.9%
94132 San Francisco
−14.6%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
38
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$2.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$70K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more coffee shops in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 0% since 2015

Number of coffee shops in San Francisco County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

551
2015
585
2018
596
2020
578
2021
538
2022
553
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
94114 San Francisco
412%
94123 San Francisco
377%
94133 San Francisco
375%
94102 San Francisco
323%
94122 San Francisco
319%
94158 San Francisco
294%
94117 San Francisco
293%
94110 San Francisco
275%
94115 San Francisco
261%
94109 San Francisco
261%
94132 San Francisco
208%
94118 San Francisco
202%
94121 San Francisco
192%
94127 San Francisco
154%
94116 San Francisco
133%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
94134 San Francisco
47%
94124 San Francisco
85%
94112 San Francisco
121%
94131 San Francisco
128%
94116 San Francisco
133%
94127 San Francisco
154%
94121 San Francisco
192%
94118 San Francisco
202%
94132 San Francisco
208%
94109 San Francisco
261%
94115 San Francisco
261%
94110 San Francisco
275%
94117 San Francisco
293%
94158 San Francisco
294%
94122 San Francisco
319%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few coffee shops may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCoffee shopsIndex
94108San Francisco Employment hub 11,30527,567 29 550%
94111San Francisco Destination 4,57982,356 21 218%
94103San Francisco Employment hub 34,96486,959 34 206%
94105San Francisco Employment hub 13,861127,563 25 153%
94107San Francisco Employment hub 31,82377,106 22 149%
94104San Francisco Destination 49882,128 11 126%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = coffee shops per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCoffee shops Per 10kIndexStatus
94108San Francisco 11,30527,567 29 11.6 550% Very high density
94114San Francisco 33,02010,046 33 8.7 412% Very high density
94123San Francisco 24,0549,873 23 7.9 377% Very high density
94133San Francisco 23,80418,304 26 7.9 375% Very high density
94102San Francisco 35,97631,203 35 6.8 323% Very high density
94122San Francisco 55,8197,566 40 6.7 319% Very high density
94158San Francisco 11,3149,763 10 6.2 294% Very high density
94117San Francisco 36,19812,122 26 6.2 293% Very high density
94110San Francisco 66,86528,989 47 5.8 275% Very high density
94115San Francisco 32,62918,448 23 5.5 261% Very high density
94109San Francisco 54,55325,710 37 5.5 261% Very high density
94111San Francisco 4,57982,356 21 4.6 218% High density
94132San Francisco 26,8595,704 13 4.4 208% High density
94103San Francisco 34,96486,959 34 4.3 206% High density
94118San Francisco 39,13011,269 19 4.2 202% High density
94129San Francisco 3,8366,891 3 4.1 196% High density
94121San Francisco 41,9955,144 18 4.0 192% High density
94127San Francisco 20,2882,758 7 3.2 154% High density
94105San Francisco 13,861127,563 25 3.2 153% High density
94107San Francisco 31,82377,106 22 3.1 149% Above average
94116San Francisco 43,7915,596 13 2.8 133% Above average
94131San Francisco 28,5042,519 8 2.7 128% Above average
94104San Francisco 49882,128 11 2.6 126% Above average
94112San Francisco 79,2776,382 21 2.5 121% Above average
94124San Francisco 34,47520,546 8 1.8 85% Below average
94134San Francisco 38,6333,956 4 1.0 47% Far below average
94119San Francisco —19 0–2 — — Not published
94120San Francisco —288 0–2 — — Not published
94125San Francisco —72 0–2 — — Not published
94126San Francisco —101 0–2 — — Not published
94130San Francisco 2,429780 0–2 — — Not published
94139San Francisco —78 0–2 — — Not published
94141San Francisco —53 0–2 — — Not published
94143San Francisco —13,141 0–2 — — Not published
94147San Francisco —20 0–2 — — Not published
94159San Francisco —4 0–2 — — Not published
94164San Francisco —34 0–2 — — Not published
94188San Francisco 031 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in San Francisco

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse San Francisco retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse San Francisco retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse San Francisco retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow San Francisco County and coffee shops

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722515 — snack & non-alcoholic beverage bars (incl. coffee shops). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 540 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.10 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.