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Howard County, MD — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 22 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.25× the U.S. rate (between 1.25× and 1.45× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 11 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 9 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Howard County day care — 125–145% of the U.S. rate

109 day care are counted in Howard County — 2.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 125% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 20% between 2015 and 2023 (85 → 102). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 21045 (Columbia), 21797 (Woodbine), 20759 (Fulton) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 20794 (Jessup), 20723 (Laurel), 21043 (Ellicott City).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 115 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Howard County sits at 125% of the U.S. rate for day care. 9 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 125% and 145% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 21045 and 21797; the lowest measured density is in 20794 and 20723.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
109–131
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (11 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
1.25×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
115
2023 — $61M annual payroll
Residents
336,999
20 ZIPs with data
Workers
188,514
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
339,668
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.1%
+6,847 people
Net migration 2024
+1,267
international +2,538, domestic −1,271
Jobs located here
179,992
LODES 2022, −1.8% since 2019

Howard County had an estimated 339,668 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.1% more than in 2020 (+6,847). In the latest year it gained 2,327 people: births minus deaths +1,052, international migration +2,538, domestic migration −1,271. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

179,992 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.8% since 2019), and 155,378 employed residents lived there (−2.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
21029 Clarksville
+24.9%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
539
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$17.2M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$32K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 20% since 2015

Number of day care in Howard County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

85
2015
101
2018
98
2020
98
2021
100
2022
102
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
21045 Columbia
259%
21797 Woodbine
205%
20759 Fulton
194%
21029 Clarksville
190%
21044 Columbia
131%
21042 Ellicott City
112%
21075 Elkridge
107%
21043 Ellicott City
83%
20723 Laurel
74%
20794 Jessup
59%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
20794 Jessup
59%
20723 Laurel
74%
21043 Ellicott City
83%
21075 Elkridge
107%
21042 Ellicott City
112%
21044 Columbia
131%
21029 Clarksville
190%
20759 Fulton
194%
21797 Woodbine
205%
21045 Columbia
259%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
21046Columbia Employment hub 15,60839,273 13 182%
20701Annapolis Junction Destination 51310,474 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
21045Columbia 40,03422,695 27 5.3 259% Very high density
21797Woodbine 8,6431,955 4 4.2 205% High density
20759Fulton 6,6247,070 4 3.9 194% High density
21029Clarksville 13,6073,928 6 3.9 190% High density
21046Columbia 15,60839,273 13 3.7 182% High density
21044Columbia 44,11424,225 15 2.7 131% Above average
21042Ellicott City 43,3279,947 11 2.3 112% Above average
21075Elkridge 37,36317,627 10 2.2 107% Above average
21043Ellicott City 48,52510,059 9 1.7 83% Below average
20723Laurel 36,86618,891 7 1.5 74% Below average
20794Jessup 16,81416,247 3 1.2 59% Below average
20701Annapolis Junction 51310,474 0–2 — — Not published
20763Savage 2,6012,471 0–2 — — Not published
20777Highland 3,221581 0–2 — — Not published
21036Dayton 2,569263 0–2 — — Not published
21041Ellicott City —335 0–2 — — Not published
21163Woodstock 7,539843 0–2 — — Not published
21723Cooksville 669145 0–2 — — Not published
21737Glenelg 2,474678 0–2 — — Not published
21738Glenwood 3,696729 0–2 — — Not published
21765Lisbon —31 0–2 — — Not published
21794West Friendship 2,192413 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Columbia

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Columbia retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Columbia retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Columbia retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Howard County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 115 establishments and $61M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.