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Norfolk County, MA — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 44 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: High density — 1.72× the U.S. rate (between 1.72× and 1.80× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 12 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 7 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

High density   Norfolk County day care — 172–180% of the U.S. rate

310 day care are counted in Norfolk County — 3.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 172% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 7% between 2015 and 2023 (270 → 290). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 02482 (Wellesley), 02481 (Wellesley Hills), 02053 (Medway) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 02019 (Bellingham), 02072 (Stoughton), 02169 (Quincy).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 323 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Norfolk County sits at 172% of the U.S. rate for day care. 7 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 172% and 180% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 02482 and 02481; the lowest measured density is in 02019 and 02072.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
310–334
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (12 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
3.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
1.72×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
323
2023 — $156M annual payroll
Residents
720,686
39 ZIPs with data
Workers
332,697
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
740,754
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.3%
+17,004 people
Net migration 2024
+7,270
international +8,722, domestic −1,452
Jobs located here
356,190
LODES 2022, −2.4% since 2019

Norfolk County had an estimated 740,754 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.3% more than in 2020 (+17,004). In the latest year it gained 8,375 people: births minus deaths +1,086, international migration +8,722, domestic migration −1,452. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

356,190 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−2.4% since 2019), and 378,693 employed residents lived there (−0.4% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
02190 South Weymouth
+14.2%
02169 Quincy
+11.4%
02762 Plainville
+8.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
02030 Dover
−1.9%
02025 Cohasset
−0.7%
02038 Franklin
−0.3%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
689
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$24.4M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$35K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 7% since 2015

Number of day care in Norfolk County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

270
2015
273
2018
276
2020
268
2021
301
2022
290
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
02482 Wellesley
330%
02481 Wellesley Hills
291%
02053 Medway
290%
02445 Brookline
279%
02052 Medfield
274%
02343 Holbrook
274%
02035 Foxboro
273%
02189 East Weymouth
256%
02067 Sharon
245%
02762 Plainville
239%
02186 Milton
235%
02446 Brookline
228%
02026 Dedham
210%
02368 Randolph
203%
02171 Quincy
197%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
02019 Bellingham
70%
02072 Stoughton
79%
02169 Quincy
107%
02056 Norfolk
116%
02090 Westwood
121%
02038 Franklin
132%
02081 Walpole
148%
02170 Quincy
150%
02021 Canton
154%
02492 Needham
157%
02184 Braintree
161%
02190 South Weymouth
164%
02188 Weymouth
165%
02191 North Weymouth
169%
02494 Needham Heights
178%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
02482Wellesley 11,0514,751 9 6.7 330% Very high density
02481Wellesley Hills 17,41512,557 14 5.9 291% Very high density
02053Medway 13,4363,713 9 5.9 290% Very high density
02445Brookline 22,5604,411 14 5.7 279% Very high density
02052Medfield 13,0682,589 8 5.6 274% Very high density
02343Holbrook 11,3462,444 7 5.6 274% Very high density
02035Foxboro 18,61513,286 14 5.5 273% Very high density
02189East Weymouth 14,4505,812 9 5.2 256% Very high density
02067Sharon 18,5383,130 10 5.0 245% High density
02032East Walpole 4,9922,201 3 4.9 243% High density
02762Plainville 9,9434,882 6 4.8 239% High density
02186Milton 28,7355,544 15 4.8 235% High density
02446Brookline 31,3106,447 16 4.6 228% High density
02026Dedham 25,23715,252 14 4.3 210% High density
02368Randolph 34,9127,772 16 4.1 203% High density
02171Quincy 20,16414,627 11 4.0 197% High density
02062Norwood 31,54225,287 16 3.6 178% High density
02494Needham Heights 11,03516,775 7 3.6 178% High density
02191North Weymouth 8,1811,164 3 3.4 169% High density
02188Weymouth 16,1793,567 6 3.3 165% High density
02190South Weymouth 19,6958,693 8 3.3 164% High density
02184Braintree 38,89926,046 17 3.3 161% High density
02492Needham 21,4247,311 8 3.2 157% High density
02021Canton 24,74827,281 12 3.1 154% High density
02170Quincy 18,8091,833 6 3.0 150% Above average
02081Walpole 19,3437,811 7 3.0 148% Above average
02038Franklin 33,15415,772 11 2.7 132% Above average
02090Westwood 16,31816,260 6 2.5 121% Above average
02056Norfolk 11,6732,103 3 2.4 116% Above average
02169Quincy 62,99321,641 16 2.2 107% Above average
02072Stoughton 29,22516,434 6 1.6 79% Below average
02019Bellingham 17,4107,407 3 1.4 70% Below average
02025Cohasset 8,4272,717 0–2 — — Not published
02027Dedham —47 0–2 — — Not published
02030Dover 5,930667 0–2 — — Not published
02054Millis 8,8881,544 0–2 — — Not published
02070Sheldonville —31 0–2 — — Not published
02071South Walpole 2,089178 0–2 — — Not published
02093Wrentham 12,2975,587 0–2 — — Not published
02185Braintree —98 0–2 — — Not published
02187Milton Village —39 0–2 — — Not published
02269Quincy —1,134 0–2 — — Not published
02322Avon 4,7745,120 0–2 — — Not published
02457Babson Park 1,8812,081 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Canton

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Canton retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Canton retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Canton retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Norfolk County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 323 establishments and $156M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.