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Middlesex County, MA — Bars Saturation

How many bars exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 98 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Bars & taverns · Pubs & brewpubs (drinking-focused) · Cocktail & wine bars · Taprooms. Counted together because official statistics use one 722410 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.24× the U.S. rate (between 0.24× and 0.92× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 88 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 73 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Middlesex County bars — 24–92% of the U.S. rate

52 bars are counted in Middlesex County — 0.2 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 24% of the U.S. rate of 1.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 21% between 2015 and 2023 (53 → 42). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 02143 (Somerville), 01749 (Hudson), 02149 (Everett) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 01801 (Woburn), 02472 (Watertown), 02144 (Somerville).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 79 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Middlesex County sits at 24% of the U.S. rate for bars. 73 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 24% and 92% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 02143 and 01749; the lowest measured density is in 01801 and 02472.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing bars and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Bars
52–228
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (88 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.2
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.24×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
79
2023 — $34M annual payroll
Residents
1,653,842
83 ZIPs with data
Workers
958,530
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,668,956
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.5%
+41,378 people
Net migration 2024
+19,403
international +29,046, domestic −9,643
Jobs located here
944,369
LODES 2022, −0.8% since 2019

Middlesex County had an estimated 1,668,956 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.5% more than in 2020 (+41,378). In the latest year it gained 24,024 people: births minus deaths +4,525, international migration +29,046, domestic migration −9,643. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

944,369 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−0.8% since 2019), and 822,882 employed residents lived there (−2.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01432 Ayer
+10.7%
01748 Hopkinton
+10.0%
02149 Everett
+8.5%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01464 Shirley
−8.6%
01821 Billerica
−8.1%
01803 Burlington
−5.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
52
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$2.6M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$49K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more bars in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 21% since 2015

Number of bars in Middlesex County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

53
2015
45
2018
43
2020
39
2021
46
2022
42
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
02143 Somerville
254%
01749 Hudson
161%
02149 Everett
156%
02145 Somerville
129%
01852 Lowell
118%
02139 Cambridge
116%
01826 Dracut
112%
02144 Somerville
106%
02472 Watertown
90%
01801 Woburn
45%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01801 Woburn
45%
02472 Watertown
90%
02144 Somerville
106%
01826 Dracut
112%
02139 Cambridge
116%
01852 Lowell
118%
02145 Somerville
129%
02149 Everett
156%
01749 Hudson
161%
02143 Somerville
254%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few bars may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersBarsIndex
01434Devens Employment hub 1,5644,918 0–2 —
02142Cambridge Employment hub 4,73731,327 0–2 —
02451Waltham Employment hub 17,39359,760 0–2 —
02462Newton Lower Falls Employment hub 1,4705,891 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = bars per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersBars Per 10kIndexStatus
02143Somerville 25,51311,442 8 2.6 254% Very high density
01749Hudson 20,0779,145 4 1.6 161% High density
02149Everett 50,04514,514 9 1.6 156% High density
02145Somerville 27,4956,587 4 1.3 129% Above average
01852Lowell 37,1449,846 5 1.2 118% Above average
02139Cambridge 40,03357,246 8 1.2 116% Above average
01826Dracut 32,6295,452 4 1.1 112% Above average
02144Somerville 25,4485,471 3 1.1 106% Above average
02472Watertown 35,62017,292 4 0.9 90% Below average
01801Woburn 41,93947,661 3 0.5 45% Far below average
01431Ashby 3,211224 0–2 — — Not published
01432Ayer 8,5214,132 0–2 — — Not published
01434Devens 1,5644,918 0–2 — — Not published
01450Groton 11,3561,923 0–2 — — Not published
01460Littleton 10,2806,243 0–2 — — Not published
01463Pepperell 11,6971,887 0–2 — — Not published
01464Shirley 6,9761,571 0–2 — — Not published
01469Townsend 6,8201,363 0–2 — — Not published
01471Groton —360 0–2 — — Not published
01472West Groton —147 0–2 — — Not published
01474West Townsend 2,280106 0–2 — — Not published
01701Framingham 32,61828,173 0–2 — — Not published
01702Framingham 39,78912,859 0–2 — — Not published
01703Framingham —27 0–2 — — Not published
01704Framingham —12 0–2 — — Not published
01718Acton 4047 0–2 — — Not published
01719Boxborough 5,4963,309 0–2 — — Not published
01720Acton 23,52610,629 0–2 — — Not published
01721Ashland 18,8734,438 0–2 — — Not published
01730Bedford 14,70723,516 0–2 — — Not published
01731Hanscom Afb 2,110168 0–2 — — Not published
01741Carlisle 5,239556 0–2 — — Not published
01742Concord 18,44811,358 0–2 — — Not published
01746Holliston 15,0945,337 0–2 — — Not published
01748Hopkinton 19,35813,167 0–2 — — Not published
01752Marlborough 41,64743,679 0–2 — — Not published
01754Maynard 10,7123,080 0–2 — — Not published
01760Natick 36,78221,689 0–2 — — Not published
01770Sherborn 4,427471 0–2 — — Not published
01773Lincoln 4,8911,992 0–2 — — Not published
01775Stow 7,165957 0–2 — — Not published
01776Sudbury 19,2705,788 0–2 — — Not published
01778Wayland 14,0333,272 0–2 — — Not published
01803Burlington 26,27440,471 0–2 — — Not published
01805Burlington —4,971 0–2 — — Not published
01821Billerica 30,14315,332 0–2 — — Not published
01824Chelmsford 26,65020,094 0–2 — — Not published
01827Dunstable 3,408224 0–2 — — Not published
01850Lowell 17,7401,500 0–2 — — Not published
01851Lowell 33,40313,356 0–2 — — Not published
01853Lowell —406 0–2 — — Not published
01854Lowell 30,0817,284 0–2 — — Not published
01862North Billerica 12,12911,110 0–2 — — Not published
01863North Chelmsford 9,7962,960 0–2 — — Not published
01864North Reading 15,7656,881 0–2 — — Not published
01865Nutting Lake —5 0–2 — — Not published
01866Pinehurst —16 0–2 — — Not published
01867Reading 25,6126,756 0–2 — — Not published
01876Tewksbury 31,00414,955 0–2 — — Not published
01879Tyngsboro 12,5503,772 0–2 — — Not published
01880Wakefield 27,79314,674 0–2 — — Not published
01886Westford 24,6909,553 0–2 — — Not published
01887Wilmington 23,33626,779 0–2 — — Not published
01888Woburn —534 0–2 — — Not published
01890Winchester 23,4066,381 0–2 — — Not published
02138Cambridge 38,50946,771 0–2 — — Not published
02140Cambridge 21,2049,129 0–2 — — Not published
02141Cambridge 14,51715,363 0–2 — — Not published
02142Cambridge 4,73731,327 0–2 — — Not published
02148Malden 65,90612,471 0–2 — — Not published
02153Medford —168 0–2 — — Not published
02155Medford 61,73022,673 0–2 — — Not published
02176Melrose 29,6505,241 0–2 — — Not published
02180Stoneham 23,3557,742 0–2 — — Not published
02238Cambridge —2,153 0–2 — — Not published
02420Lexington 16,2154,413 0–2 — — Not published
02421Lexington 18,08020,781 0–2 — — Not published
02451Waltham 17,39359,760 0–2 — — Not published
02452Waltham 15,8088,200 0–2 — — Not published
02453Waltham 31,59122,576 0–2 — — Not published
02454Waltham —592 0–2 — — Not published
02455North Waltham —34 0–2 — — Not published
02458Newton 13,0508,239 0–2 — — Not published
02459Newton Center 18,44912,295 0–2 — — Not published
02460Newtonville 10,0992,429 0–2 — — Not published
02461Newton Highlands 6,9752,905 0–2 — — Not published
02462Newton Lower Falls 1,4705,891 0–2 — — Not published
02464Newton Upper Falls 3,8333,819 0–2 — — Not published
02465West Newton 11,6972,691 0–2 — — Not published
02466Auburndale 8,67916,302 0–2 — — Not published
02467Chestnut Hill 23,00114,964 0–2 — — Not published
02468Waban 5,773345 0–2 — — Not published
02471Watertown —772 0–2 — — Not published
02474Arlington 28,6423,974 0–2 — — Not published
02475Arlington Heights —49 0–2 — — Not published
02476Arlington 17,7083,887 0–2 — — Not published
02478Belmont 27,1757,481 0–2 — — Not published
02493Weston 11,5793,311 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Waltham

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Waltham retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Waltham retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Waltham retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Middlesex County and bars

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722410 — drinking places (alcoholic beverages). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 79 establishments and $34M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.01 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.