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Stanislaus County, CA — Physical therapy Saturation

How many physical therapy exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 27 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Physical therapy clinics · Occupational therapy offices · Speech therapy offices · Audiology offices. Counted together because official statistics use one 621340 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.45× the U.S. rate (between 0.45× and 0.87× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 20 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 17 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Stanislaus County physical therapy — 45–87% of the U.S. rate

37 physical therapy are counted in Stanislaus County — 0.6 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 45% of the U.S. rate of 1.3.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 18% between 2015 and 2023 (17 → 20). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 95355 (Modesto), 95356 (Modesto), 95354 (Modesto) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 95380 (Turlock), 95350 (Modesto), 95361 (Oakdale).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 42 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Stanislaus County sits at 45% of the U.S. rate for physical therapy. 17 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 45% and 87% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 95355 and 95356; the lowest measured density is in 95380 and 95350.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing physical therapy and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Physical therapy
37–77
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (20 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.6
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.3
per 10,000 present
County index
0.45×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
42
2023 — $86M annual payroll
Residents
559,023
24 ZIPs with data
Workers
148,684
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
556,972
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.6%
+3,262 people
Net migration 2024
+1,138
international +3,324, domestic −2,186
Jobs located here
197,555
LODES 2022, +3.0% since 2019

Stanislaus County had an estimated 556,972 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.6% more than in 2020 (+3,262). In the latest year it gained 3,051 people: births minus deaths +1,893, international migration +3,324, domestic migration −2,186. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

197,555 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+3.0% since 2019), and 229,085 employed residents lived there (+4.5% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
95363 Patterson
+10.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
77
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$4.1M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$53K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more physical therapy in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 18% since 2015

Number of physical therapy in Stanislaus County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

17
2015
15
2018
18
2020
16
2021
20
2022
20
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
95355 Modesto
140%
95356 Modesto
125%
95354 Modesto
94%
95382 Turlock
73%
95361 Oakdale
60%
95350 Modesto
46%
95380 Turlock
44%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
95380 Turlock
44%
95350 Modesto
46%
95361 Oakdale
60%
95382 Turlock
73%
95354 Modesto
94%
95356 Modesto
125%
95355 Modesto
140%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few physical therapy may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = physical therapy per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersPhysical therapy Per 10kIndexStatus
95355Modesto 60,71011,922 12 1.8 140% Above average
95356Modesto 33,23320,513 7 1.6 125% Above average
95354Modesto 25,68414,713 4 1.2 94% Below average
95382Turlock 39,0837,253 4 0.9 73% Below average
95361Oakdale 34,8107,834 3 0.8 60% Below average
95350Modesto 57,13620,099 4 0.6 46% Far below average
95380Turlock 43,96019,309 3 0.6 44% Far below average
95307Ceres 46,3107,781 0–2 — — Not published
95313Crows Landing 1,119295 0–2 — — Not published
95316Denair 8,022578 0–2 — — Not published
95319Empire 1,327126 0–2 — — Not published
95323Hickman 1,644127 0–2 — — Not published
95326Hughson 10,5931,721 0–2 — — Not published
95328Keyes 4,133276 0–2 — — Not published
95329La Grange 2,954109 0–2 — — Not published
95351Modesto 48,4989,813 0–2 — — Not published
95352Modesto —159 0–2 — — Not published
95353Modesto —4,114 0–2 — — Not published
95357Modesto 13,5994,343 0–2 — — Not published
95358Modesto 30,4696,470 0–2 — — Not published
95360Newman 13,7791,540 0–2 — — Not published
95363Patterson 30,7696,640 0–2 — — Not published
95367Riverbank 25,5933,774 0–2 — — Not published
95368Salida 13,9002,353 0–2 — — Not published
95381Turlock —745 0–2 — — Not published
95386Waterford 10,666781 0–2 — — Not published
95387Westley 1,032314 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Modesto

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Modesto retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Modesto retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Modesto retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Stanislaus County and physical therapy

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 621340 — offices of physical, occupational and speech therapists, and audiologists. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 42 establishments and $86M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.29 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.