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Suffolk County, NY — Nail salons Saturation

How many nail salons exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 110 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Nail salons · Manicure & pedicure studios. Counted together because official statistics use one 812113 code.

Measured density: Very high density — 2.72× the U.S. rate (between 2.72× and 3.44× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 57 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 53 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Very high density   Suffolk County nail salons — 272–344% of the U.S. rate

403 nail salons are counted in Suffolk County — 2.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 272% of the U.S. rate of 0.9.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 8% between 2015 and 2023 (409 → 375). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 11731 (East Northport), 11934 (Center Moriches), 11952 (Mattituck) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 11790 (Stony Brook), 11772 (Patchogue), 11704 (West Babylon).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 337 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Suffolk County sits at 272% of the U.S. rate for nail salons. 53 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 272% and 344% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 11731 and 11934; the lowest measured density is in 11790 and 11772.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing nail salons and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Nail salons
403–517
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (57 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.9
per 10,000 present
County index
2.72×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
337
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,444,016
105 ZIPs with data
Workers
549,149
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,535,909
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.9%
+13,734 people
Net migration 2024
+3,412
international +9,881, domestic −6,469
Jobs located here
639,110
LODES 2022, −3.7% since 2019

Suffolk County had an estimated 1,535,909 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.9% more than in 2020 (+13,734). In the latest year it gained 6,880 people: births minus deaths +3,394, international migration +9,881, domestic migration −6,469. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

639,110 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−3.7% since 2019), and 768,254 employed residents lived there (+0.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11978 Westhampton Beach
+52.5%
11968 Southampton
+45.6%
11937 East Hampton
+35.6%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11955 Moriches
−34.4%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
431
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$10.9M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$25K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more nail salons in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 8% since 2015

Number of nail salons in Suffolk County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

409
2015
386
2018
335
2020
359
2021
363
2022
375
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11731 East Northport
707%
11934 Center Moriches
654%
11952 Mattituck
606%
11743 Huntington
604%
11702 Babylon
585%
11725 Commack
528%
11768 Northport
517%
11780 Saint James
511%
11953 Middle Island
500%
11729 Deer Park
481%
11730 East Islip
445%
11767 Nesconset
429%
11784 Selden
424%
11769 Oakdale
416%
11766 Mount Sinai
404%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11790 Stony Brook
148%
11772 Patchogue
155%
11704 West Babylon
175%
11967 Shirley
190%
11722 Central Islip
196%
11901 Riverhead
204%
11787 Smithtown
216%
11706 Bay Shore
217%
11727 Coram
233%
11763 Medford
241%
11754 Kings Park
243%
11778 Rocky Point
255%
11701 Amityville
258%
11716 Bohemia
265%
11741 Holbrook
272%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few nail salons may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersNail salonsIndex
11788Hauppauge Employment hub 17,37438,054 4 129%
11747Melville Employment hub 20,51351,326 3 76%
11749Islandia Employment hub 3,6008,492 0–2 —
11770Ocean Beach Employment hub 77181 0–2 —
11794Stony Brook Destination 83111,090 0–2 —
11931Aquebogue Destination 27525 0–2 —
11932Bridgehampton Employment hub 7252,345 0–2 —
11972Speonk Employment hub 334680 0–2 —
11973Upton Destination 482,693 0–2 —
06390Fishers Island Employment hub 72273 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = nail salons per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersNail salons Per 10kIndexStatus
11718Brightwaters 3,179647 3 8.6 1008% Very high density
11731East Northport 29,9996,541 20 6.0 707% Very high density
11934Center Moriches 9,4182,746 6 5.6 654% Very high density
11952Mattituck 5,0401,566 3 5.2 606% Very high density
11743Huntington 43,49018,099 27 5.1 604% Very high density
11702Babylon 13,9094,377 8 5.0 585% Very high density
11725Commack 29,07317,597 17 4.5 528% Very high density
11768Northport 22,0306,010 11 4.4 517% Very high density
11780Saint James 15,0186,761 8 4.3 511% Very high density
11953Middle Island 12,8462,563 6 4.2 500% Very high density
11729Deer Park 27,23113,958 14 4.1 481% Very high density
11730East Islip 14,2473,261 6 3.8 445% Very high density
11767Nesconset 14,9642,970 6 3.6 429% Very high density
11784Selden 26,2442,999 10 3.6 424% Very high density
11769Oakdale 8,9354,747 4 3.5 416% Very high density
11766Mount Sinai 10,7501,814 4 3.4 404% Very high density
11755Lake Grove 12,1445,132 5 3.4 400% Very high density
11738Farmingville 18,8773,566 7 3.4 399% Very high density
11779Ronkonkoma 38,20621,220 16 3.3 386% Very high density
11703North Babylon 17,1872,515 6 3.3 383% Very high density
11705Bayport 8,2842,047 3 3.2 379% Very high density
11968Southampton 15,3128,019 6 3.1 365% Very high density
11757Lindenhurst 44,4138,479 15 3.1 363% Very high density
11776Port Jefferson Station 22,8086,568 8 3.1 361% Very high density
11795West Islip 25,3798,141 9 3.1 359% Very high density
11792Wading River 8,9042,020 3 3.0 356% Very high density
11726Copiague 21,4554,146 7 3.0 350% Very high density
11764Miller Place 12,5512,473 4 2.9 341% Very high density
11946Hampton Bays 15,8193,886 5 2.8 331% Very high density
11950Mastic 17,5991,037 5 2.8 325% Very high density
11746Huntington Station 65,74715,647 20 2.7 320% Very high density
11740Greenlawn 10,1272,406 3 2.6 311% Very high density
11720Centereach 29,2925,738 8 2.5 293% Very high density
11782Sayville 14,4053,998 4 2.4 287% Very high density
11733East Setauket 17,7525,672 5 2.4 286% Very high density
11741Holbrook 26,6677,137 7 2.3 272% Very high density
11716Bohemia 9,65916,191 4 2.3 265% Very high density
11701Amityville 29,50913,816 8 2.2 258% Very high density
11778Rocky Point 12,3902,895 3 2.2 255% Very high density
11754Kings Park 17,5653,544 4 2.1 243% High density
11763Medford 29,9738,428 7 2.0 241% High density
11727Coram 28,4953,558 6 2.0 233% High density
11706Bay Shore 68,97624,961 15 1.8 217% High density
11787Smithtown 34,49918,002 8 1.8 216% High density
11901Riverhead 33,09114,663 7 1.7 204% High density
11722Central Islip 39,0335,933 7 1.7 196% High density
11967Shirley 27,9755,900 5 1.6 190% High density
11704West Babylon 40,70612,470 7 1.5 175% High density
11772Patchogue 45,02315,885 7 1.3 155% High density
11790Stony Brook 21,0745,569 3 1.3 148% Above average
11788Hauppauge 17,37438,054 4 1.1 129% Above average
11747Melville 20,51351,326 3 0.6 76% Below average
11707West Babylon —41 0–2 — — Not published
11713Bellport 9,2183,760 0–2 — — Not published
11715Blue Point 3,936931 0–2 — — Not published
11717Brentwood —12,065 6 — — Not published
11719Brookhaven 3,2351,836 0–2 — — Not published
11721Centerport 6,426735 0–2 — — Not published
11724Cold Spring Harbor 3,0731,375 0–2 — — Not published
11739Great River 1,2251,418 0–2 — — Not published
11742Holtsville 13,2025,410 0–2 — — Not published
11749Islandia 3,6008,492 0–2 — — Not published
11751Islip 13,7263,416 0–2 — — Not published
11752Islip Terrace 9,2041,071 0–2 — — Not published
11770Ocean Beach 77181 0–2 — — Not published
11777Port Jefferson 9,3967,308 0–2 — — Not published
11786Shoreham 6,459830 0–2 — — Not published
11789Sound Beach 7,369213 0–2 — — Not published
11794Stony Brook 83111,090 0–2 — — Not published
11796West Sayville 3,560567 0–2 — — Not published
11798Wyandanch —2,060 0–2 — — Not published
11930Amagansett 842938 0–2 — — Not published
11931Aquebogue 27525 0–2 — — Not published
11932Bridgehampton 7252,345 0–2 — — Not published
11933Calverton 6,6933,294 0–2 — — Not published
11935Cutchogue 2,863796 0–2 — — Not published
11937East Hampton 21,8825,485 0–2 — — Not published
11939East Marion 1,33164 0–2 — — Not published
11940East Moriches 5,8191,860 0–2 — — Not published
11941Eastport 2,814429 0–2 — — Not published
11942East Quogue 5,4061,094 0–2 — — Not published
11944Greenport 5,0371,674 0–2 — — Not published
11947Jamesport 148230 0–2 — — Not published
11948Laurel 924177 0–2 — — Not published
11949Manorville 14,5631,815 0–2 — — Not published
11951Mastic Beach 15,938568 0–2 — — Not published
11954Montauk 4,2231,424 0–2 — — Not published
11955Moriches 2,458646 0–2 — — Not published
11956New Suffolk 29865 0–2 — — Not published
11957Orient 1,121177 0–2 — — Not published
11958Peconic 884384 0–2 — — Not published
11959Quogue 734666 0–2 — — Not published
11960Remsenburg 830101 0–2 — — Not published
11961Ridge 12,315843 0–2 — — Not published
11962Sagaponack 712290 0–2 — — Not published
11963Sag Harbor 8,3902,245 0–2 — — Not published
11964Shelter Island 2,906466 0–2 — — Not published
11965Shelter Island Heights 404326 0–2 — — Not published
11969Southampton —75 0–2 — — Not published
11970South Jamesport 41628 0–2 — — Not published
11971Southold 6,3611,306 0–2 — — Not published
11972Speonk 334680 0–2 — — Not published
11973Upton 482,693 0–2 — — Not published
11975Wainscott 450639 0–2 — — Not published
11976Water Mill 2,9521,097 0–2 — — Not published
11977Westhampton 2,843665 0–2 — — Not published
11978Westhampton Beach 4,7052,397 0–2 — — Not published
11980Yaphank 5,8554,113 0–2 — — Not published
00501Holtsville —0 0–2 — — Not published
06390Fishers Island 72273 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Melville

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Melville retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Melville retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Melville retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Suffolk County and nail salons

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 812113 — nail salons. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 337 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.85 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.