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Johnson County, KS — Nail salons Saturation

How many nail salons exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 43 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Nail salons · Manicure & pedicure studios. Counted together because official statistics use one 812113 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 1.34× the U.S. rate (between 1.34× and 1.78× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 25 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 15 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Johnson County nail salons — 134–178% of the U.S. rate

91 nail salons are counted in Johnson County — 1.1 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 134% of the U.S. rate of 0.9.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 68% between 2015 and 2023 (25 → 42). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 66223 (Overland Park), 66217 (Shawnee), 66226 (Shawnee) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 66061 (Olathe), 66212 (Overland Park), 66030 (Gardner).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 98 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Johnson County sits at 134% of the U.S. rate for nail salons. 15 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 134% and 178% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 66223 and 66217; the lowest measured density is in 66061 and 66212.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing nail salons and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Nail salons
91–141
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (25 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.1
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.9
per 10,000 present
County index
1.34×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
98
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
624,331
33 ZIPs with data
Workers
349,870
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
632,276
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+3.5%
+21,115 people
Net migration 2024
+4,249
international +5,297, domestic −1,048
Jobs located here
369,934
LODES 2022, +2.2% since 2019

Johnson County had an estimated 632,276 residents on July 1, 2024 — 3.5% more than in 2020 (+21,115). In the latest year it gained 6,832 people: births minus deaths +2,537, international migration +5,297, domestic migration −1,048. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

369,934 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+2.2% since 2019), and 313,182 employed residents lived there (+1.5% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
66221 Overland Park
+46.5%
66227 Lenexa
+44.6%
66085 Stilwell
+30.4%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
292
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$9.1M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$31K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more nail salons in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 68% since 2015

Number of nail salons in Johnson County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

25
2015
32
2018
31
2020
35
2021
41
2022
42
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
66223 Overland Park
651%
66217 Shawnee
496%
66226 Shawnee
441%
66205 Mission
289%
66221 Overland Park
214%
66202 Mission
201%
66209 Leawood
194%
66214 Overland Park
180%
66062 Olathe
173%
66215 Lenexa
139%
66216 Shawnee
130%
66213 Overland Park
128%
66030 Gardner
124%
66212 Overland Park
88%
66061 Olathe
72%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
66061 Olathe
72%
66212 Overland Park
88%
66030 Gardner
124%
66213 Overland Park
128%
66216 Shawnee
130%
66215 Lenexa
139%
66062 Olathe
173%
66214 Overland Park
180%
66209 Leawood
194%
66202 Mission
201%
66221 Overland Park
214%
66205 Mission
289%
66226 Shawnee
441%
66217 Shawnee
496%
66223 Overland Park
651%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few nail salons may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersNail salonsIndex
66211Leawood Employment hub 5,79140,383 3 136%
66219Lenexa Employment hub 13,51929,967 3 124%
66031New Century Employment hub 6553,161 0–2 —
66251Overland Park Destination 84,229 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = nail salons per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersNail salons Per 10kIndexStatus
66223Overland Park 24,74711,944 17 5.5 651% Very high density
66217Shawnee 5,4683,285 3 4.2 496% Very high density
66226Shawnee 16,2194,892 7 3.8 441% Very high density
66205Mission 14,0324,508 4 2.5 289% Very high density
66221Overland Park 25,5503,931 5 1.8 214% High density
66202Mission 17,40811,988 4 1.7 201% High density
66209Leawood 20,4137,763 4 1.6 194% High density
66214Overland Park 12,35114,442 3 1.5 180% High density
66062Olathe 78,84132,224 14 1.5 173% High density
66215Lenexa 25,96032,819 5 1.2 139% Above average
66211Leawood 5,79140,383 3 1.2 136% Above average
66216Shawnee 24,8814,358 3 1.1 130% Above average
66213Overland Park 30,53912,407 4 1.1 128% Above average
66030Gardner 26,3284,299 3 1.1 124% Above average
66219Lenexa 13,51929,967 3 1.1 124% Above average
66212Overland Park 32,91714,337 3 0.7 88% Below average
66061Olathe 67,96726,698 5 0.6 72% Below average
66208Prairie Village 21,5766,079 ~1 0.4 48% Far below average
66018De Soto 6,5842,366 0–2 — — Not published
66021Edgerton 2,8193,952 0–2 — — Not published
66031New Century 6553,161 0–2 — — Not published
66051Olathe —233 0–2 — — Not published
66063Olathe —117 0–2 — — Not published
66083Spring Hill 13,0111,907 0–2 — — Not published
66085Stilwell 11,4862,667 0–2 — — Not published
66201Mission —632 0–2 — — Not published
66203Shawnee 19,4417,565 0–2 — — Not published
66204Overland Park 17,94811,110 0–2 — — Not published
66206Leawood 12,1533,755 0–2 — — Not published
66207Overland Park 15,7394,544 0–2 — — Not published
66210Overland Park 20,34726,759 0–2 — — Not published
66218Shawnee 8,8202,099 0–2 — — Not published
66220Lenexa 8,5351,931 0–2 — — Not published
66222Mission —107 0–2 — — Not published
66224Overland Park 12,6832,872 0–2 — — Not published
66225Overland Park —68 0–2 — — Not published
66227Lenexa 9,5954,629 0–2 — — Not published
66250Lenexa —823 0–2 — — Not published
66251Overland Park 84,229 0–2 — — Not published
66282Overland Park —19 0–2 — — Not published
66283Overland Park —79 0–2 — — Not published
66285Lenexa —50 0–2 — — Not published
66286Shawnee —6 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Leawood

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Leawood retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Leawood retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Leawood retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Johnson County and nail salons

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 812113 — nail salons. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 98 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.85 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.