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South Central Connecticut Planning Region, CT — Nail salons Saturation

How many nail salons exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 27 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Nail salons · Manicure & pedicure studios. Counted together because official statistics use one 812113 code.

Measured density: High density — 2.04× the U.S. rate (between 2.04× and 2.31× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 11 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 8 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

High density   South Central Connecticut Planning Region nail salons — 204–231% of the U.S. rate

122 nail salons are counted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region — 1.7 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 204% of the U.S. rate of 0.9.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2022 and 2023 (120 → 119).

Measured supply density is highest in 06477 (Orange), 06471 (North Branford), 06518 (Hamden) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 06450 (Meriden), 06451 (Meriden), 06512 (East Haven).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 135 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: South Central Connecticut Planning Region sits at 204% of the U.S. rate for nail salons. 8 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 204% and 231% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 06477 and 06471; the lowest measured density is in 06450 and 06451.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing nail salons and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Nail salons
122–144
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (11 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.7
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.9
per 10,000 present
County index
2.04×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
135
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
570,734
24 ZIPs with data
Workers
263,302
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
576,718
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.2%
+12,192 people
Net migration 2024
+3,526
international +5,328, domestic −1,802
Jobs located here
291,171
LODES 2022, +4.3% since 2019

South Central Connecticut Planning Region had an estimated 576,718 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.2% more than in 2020 (+12,192). In the latest year it gained 3,799 people: births minus deaths +266, international migration +5,328, domestic migration −1,802. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

291,171 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+4.3% since 2019), and 265,837 employed residents lived there (+0.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
06510 New Haven
+78.0%
06525 Woodbridge
+2.8%
06477 Orange
+2.7%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
06524 Bethany
−4.1%
06443 Madison
−2.5%
06437 Guilford
−0.7%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
218
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$6.5M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$30K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more nail salons in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 1% since 2022

Number of nail salons in South Central Connecticut Planning Region across 2022–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

120
2022
119
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
06477 Orange
953%
06471 North Branford
430%
06518 Hamden
383%
06443 Madison
353%
06460 Milford
341%
06405 Branford
339%
06437 Guilford
315%
06514 Hamden
312%
06492 Wallingford
284%
06473 North Haven
223%
06513 New Haven
222%
06517 Hamden
215%
06512 East Haven
183%
06451 Meriden
172%
06450 Meriden
166%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
06450 Meriden
166%
06451 Meriden
172%
06512 East Haven
183%
06517 Hamden
215%
06513 New Haven
222%
06473 North Haven
223%
06492 Wallingford
284%
06514 Hamden
312%
06437 Guilford
315%
06405 Branford
339%
06460 Milford
341%
06443 Madison
353%
06518 Hamden
383%
06471 North Branford
430%
06477 Orange
953%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few nail salons may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersNail salonsIndex
06510New Haven Employment hub 4,58413,964 3 305%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = nail salons per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersNail salons Per 10kIndexStatus
06477Orange 14,31510,855 16 8.1 953% Very high density
06471North Branford 7,1402,143 3 3.7 430% Very high density
06518Hamden 20,1268,890 8 3.3 383% Very high density
06443Madison 17,6574,682 6 3.0 353% Very high density
06460Milford 37,64921,274 14 2.9 341% Very high density
06405Branford 28,21712,979 10 2.9 339% Very high density
06437Guilford 22,0678,094 7 2.7 315% Very high density
06514Hamden 26,8036,729 8 2.7 312% Very high density
06510New Haven 4,58413,964 3 2.6 305% Very high density
06492Wallingford 44,49826,850 14 2.4 284% Very high density
06473North Haven 24,74324,290 7 1.9 223% High density
06513New Haven 38,8887,153 8 1.9 222% High density
06517Hamden 14,2214,359 3 1.8 215% High density
06512East Haven 28,8306,497 5 1.6 183% High density
06451Meriden 24,8515,134 4 1.5 172% High density
06450Meriden 35,69413,494 6 1.4 166% High density
06461Milford 15,0354,632 0–2 — — Not published
06472Northford 6,3631,812 0–2 — — Not published
06501New Haven —43 0–2 — — Not published
06511New Haven 54,73050,885 0–2 — — Not published
06515New Haven 19,0063,363 0–2 — — Not published
06516West Haven 55,35113,371 0–2 — — Not published
06519New Haven 15,6057,483 0–2 — — Not published
06520New Haven —177 0–2 — — Not published
06524Bethany 5,288651 0–2 — — Not published
06525Woodbridge 9,0733,718 0–2 — — Not published
06534New Haven —35 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in New Haven

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse New Haven retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse New Haven retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse New Haven retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow South Central Connecticut Planning Region and nail salons

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 812113 — nail salons. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 135 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.85 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.