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Santa Clara County, CA — Nail salons Saturation

How many nail salons exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 92 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Nail salons · Manicure & pedicure studios. Counted together because official statistics use one 812113 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 1.47× the U.S. rate (between 1.47× and 1.70× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 57 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 24 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Santa Clara County nail salons — 147–170% of the U.S. rate

315 nail salons are counted in Santa Clara County — 1.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 147% of the U.S. rate of 0.9.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 22% between 2015 and 2023 (240 → 293). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 95030 (Los Gatos), 95118 (San Jose), 95139 (San Jose) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 95112 (San Jose), 95014 (Cupertino), 95133 (San Jose).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 365 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Santa Clara County sits at 147% of the U.S. rate for nail salons. 24 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 147% and 170% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 95030 and 95118; the lowest measured density is in 95112 and 95014.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing nail salons and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Nail salons
315–429
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (57 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.9
per 10,000 present
County index
1.47×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
365
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,935,981
59 ZIPs with data
Workers
1,162,159
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,926,325
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.1%
+1,523 people
Net migration 2024
+22,610
international +44,644, domestic −22,034
Jobs located here
1,123,607
LODES 2022, +0.7% since 2019

Santa Clara County had an estimated 1,926,325 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.1% more than in 2020 (+1,523). In the latest year it gained 29,188 people: births minus deaths +6,526, international migration +44,644, domestic migration −22,034. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

1,123,607 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+0.7% since 2019), and 953,149 employed residents lived there (−0.7% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
94305 Stanford
+12.9%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
95116 San Jose
−13.9%
95127 San Jose
−11.2%
95128 San Jose
−10.3%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
601
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$18.6M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$31K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more nail salons in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 22% since 2015

Number of nail salons in Santa Clara County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

240
2015
299
2018
276
2020
269
2021
294
2022
293
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
95030 Los Gatos
578%
95118 San Jose
555%
95139 San Jose
484%
95125 San Jose
392%
95037 Morgan Hill
386%
95122 San Jose
357%
95008 Campbell
337%
94022 Los Altos
290%
95032 Los Gatos
279%
95121 San Jose
275%
95070 Saratoga
274%
95123 San Jose
265%
95020 Gilroy
260%
95124 San Jose
225%
94040 Mountain View
213%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
95112 San Jose
76%
95014 Cupertino
78%
95133 San Jose
104%
95136 San Jose
115%
95120 San Jose
121%
95128 San Jose
122%
95148 San Jose
126%
94086 Sunnyvale
128%
94087 Sunnyvale
131%
95126 San Jose
132%
94041 Mountain View
147%
95129 San Jose
150%
95050 Santa Clara
152%
95116 San Jose
160%
95035 Milpitas
160%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few nail salons may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersNail salonsIndex
94043Mountain View Employment hub 33,17669,408 0–2 —
94304Palo Alto Destination 5,00056,576 0–2 —
94305Stanford Employment hub 18,50954,779 0–2 —
95002Alviso Employment hub 1,5427,483 0–2 —
95054Santa Clara Employment hub 25,70499,768 0–2 —
95110San Jose Employment hub 19,96344,547 0–2 —
95113San Jose Employment hub 2,64022,385 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = nail salons per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersNail salons Per 10kIndexStatus
95030Los Gatos 13,1516,283 8 4.9 578% Very high density
95118San Jose 32,0158,040 17 4.7 555% Very high density
95139San Jose 7,035507 3 4.1 484% Very high density
95125San Jose 54,41917,202 21 3.3 392% Very high density
95037Morgan Hill 51,94318,080 20 3.3 386% Very high density
95122San Jose 50,77510,496 17 3.0 357% Very high density
95008Campbell 48,33329,159 18 2.9 337% Very high density
94022Los Altos 20,0278,622 6 2.5 290% Very high density
95032Los Gatos 27,31312,922 8 2.4 279% Very high density
95121San Jose 36,4634,199 9 2.3 275% Very high density
95070Saratoga 31,4175,888 8 2.3 274% Very high density
95123San Jose 69,67711,348 17 2.3 265% Very high density
95020Gilroy 67,18119,193 17 2.2 260% Very high density
95124San Jose 52,09610,965 11 1.9 225% High density
94040Mountain View 35,63217,272 8 1.8 213% High density
95119San Jose 10,84115,073 3 1.6 192% High density
95111San Jose 57,2025,240 9 1.5 177% High density
95127San Jose 58,8255,115 9 1.5 172% High density
95051Santa Clara 62,05427,577 11 1.5 171% High density
95132San Jose 40,3343,591 6 1.4 168% High density
95035Milpitas 78,81048,580 14 1.4 160% High density
95116San Jose 48,0427,103 7 1.4 160% High density
95050Santa Clara 39,83428,753 7 1.3 152% High density
95129San Jose 41,32111,357 6 1.3 150% High density
94041Mountain View 16,05015,922 3 1.2 147% Above average
95126San Jose 38,32712,398 5 1.1 132% Above average
94087Sunnyvale 57,76710,258 7 1.1 131% Above average
94086Sunnyvale 49,74629,429 7 1.1 128% Above average
95148San Jose 44,9953,371 5 1.1 126% Above average
95128San Jose 33,16530,472 5 1.0 122% Above average
95120San Jose 36,9673,838 4 1.0 121% Above average
95136San Jose 48,0565,827 5 1.0 115% Above average
95133San Jose 29,7108,301 3 0.9 104% Above average
95014Cupertino 60,93259,243 6 0.7 78% Below average
95112San Jose 57,37340,408 5 0.6 76% Below average
94023Los Altos —42 0–2 — — Not published
94024Los Altos 23,0513,126 0–2 — — Not published
94035Mountain View —2,042 0–2 — — Not published
94039Mountain View —320 0–2 — — Not published
94042Mountain View —61 0–2 — — Not published
94043Mountain View 33,17669,408 0–2 — — Not published
94085Sunnyvale 24,02421,768 0–2 — — Not published
94088Sunnyvale —576 0–2 — — Not published
94089Sunnyvale 22,69944,041 0–2 — — Not published
94301Palo Alto 17,50825,414 0–2 — — Not published
94302Palo Alto —50 0–2 — — Not published
94303Palo Alto 46,87917,648 0–2 — — Not published
94304Palo Alto 5,00056,576 0–2 — — Not published
94305Stanford 18,50954,779 0–2 — — Not published
94306Palo Alto 27,18316,926 0–2 — — Not published
94309Palo Alto —93 0–2 — — Not published
95002Alviso 1,5427,483 0–2 — — Not published
95009Campbell —39 0–2 — — Not published
95011Campbell —5 0–2 — — Not published
95013Coyote 5764 0–2 — — Not published
95015Cupertino —262 0–2 — — Not published
95021Gilroy —118 0–2 — — Not published
95031Los Gatos —358 0–2 — — Not published
95033Los Gatos 9,600623 0–2 — — Not published
95036Milpitas —28 0–2 — — Not published
95038Morgan Hill —207 0–2 — — Not published
95044Redwood Estates —14 0–2 — — Not published
95046San Martin 6,3241,344 0–2 — — Not published
95052Santa Clara —5,316 0–2 — — Not published
95053Santa Clara 3,0493,482 0–2 — — Not published
95054Santa Clara 25,70499,768 0–2 — — Not published
95055Santa Clara —24 0–2 — — Not published
95056Santa Clara —23 0–2 — — Not published
95101San Jose —185 0–2 — — Not published
95108San Jose —12 0–2 — — Not published
95110San Jose 19,96344,547 0–2 — — Not published
95113San Jose 2,64022,385 0–2 — — Not published
95117San Jose 26,9533,322 0–2 — — Not published
95130San Jose 13,5111,039 0–2 — — Not published
95131San Jose 31,17953,034 0–2 — — Not published
95134San Jose 30,47150,098 0–2 — — Not published
95135San Jose 20,1291,665 0–2 — — Not published
95138San Jose 18,96011,519 0–2 — — Not published
95140Mount Hamilton 4268 0–2 — — Not published
95141San Jose —1,824 0–2 — — Not published
95150San Jose —32 0–2 — — Not published
95151San Jose —20 0–2 — — Not published
95153San Jose —334 0–2 — — Not published
95154San Jose —23 0–2 — — Not published
95155San Jose —21 0–2 — — Not published
95158San Jose —86 0–2 — — Not published
95159San Jose —36 0–2 — — Not published
95160San Jose —89 0–2 — — Not published
95161San Jose —5 0–2 — — Not published
95164San Jose —16 0–2 — — Not published
95170San Jose —25 0–2 — — Not published
95192San Jose —1,067 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Santa Clara

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Santa Clara retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Santa Clara retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Santa Clara retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Santa Clara County and nail salons

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 812113 — nail salons. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 365 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.85 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.