Home / Lowest measured density / Child day care services / Arizona
Arizona has 11 ZIP codes where published counts of day care are statistically below the U.S. rate. Coverage is the Arizona counties on this site, not the whole state. Same filters as the radius search. Census ZBP 2023 + ACS 2024.
Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Census publishes one 6-digit code (624410) and does not split these types. The density index uses that one count.
Coverage. Only the Arizona counties BizGapMap covers, not the whole state. A missing state page means no ZIP there cleared the test — we do not publish an empty list.
Lowest measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A low published count can mean weak demand, no suitable space, commuters spending elsewhere, or businesses with no paid employees that ZBP does not count. Each line is a question to check locally.
False positives. The test is one-sided at 5% with no correction for looking at many ZIPs. Of 79 comparable ZIPs here, about 4 could clear the bar by chance. Small ZIPs rarely reach significance, so “not on this list” does not mean “no gap”.
| ZIP | City | County | Day care | Expected | Index | Band | ZIP type | Residents | Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85281 | Tempe | Maricopa County | 5 | 24.4 | 20% | Far below average | Mixed | 72,762 | p < 0.001 |
| 85009 | Phoenix | Maricopa County | 5 | 13.9 | 36% | Far below average | Mixed | 52,064 | p < 0.01 |
| 85338 | Goodyear | Maricopa County | 6 | 16.5 | 36% | Far below average | Residential | 67,451 | p < 0.01 |
| 85383 | Peoria | Maricopa County | 6 | 16.1 | 37% | Far below average | Residential | 74,390 | p < 0.01 |
| 85225 | Chandler | Maricopa County | 8 | 17.0 | 47% | Far below average | Residential | 72,297 | p ≈ 0.012 |
| 85029 | Phoenix | Maricopa County | 6 | 12.6 | 48% | Far below average | Mixed | 49,683 | p ≈ 0.033 |
| 85296 | Gilbert | Maricopa County | 6 | 12.5 | 48% | Far below average | Residential | 53,076 | p ≈ 0.035 |
| 85040 | Phoenix | Maricopa County | 6 | 12.4 | 48% | Far below average | Mixed | 34,117 | p ≈ 0.036 |
| 85027 | Phoenix | Maricopa County | 7 | 13.7 | 51% | Below average | Mixed | 39,487 | p ≈ 0.038 |
| 85226 | Chandler | Maricopa County | 7 | 13.3 | 53% | Below average | Mixed | 42,294 | p ≈ 0.046 |
| 85008 | Phoenix | Maricopa County | 8 | 14.8 | 54% | Below average | Residential | 59,716 | p ≈ 0.043 |
Scroll the table sideways to see all columns. Sorted by measured density, lowest first.
Who can be listed. ZIPs in the covered counties whose county has at least 15 ZIPs in our data, with at least 10,000 residents, and at least 5 published businesses in this industry. Census hides counts of 0–2; derived remainders are excluded.
Statistically low. P(X ≤ n | expected) < 0.05, where expected is the U.S. establishments-per-person-present rate times this ZIP’s demand (residents + 0.5 × jobs located here). Same definition as the index, so the percentage and the test cannot disagree. Full test →
ZIP type is jobs per resident, not zoning. A residential ZIP can look low because residents shop near work.
What does “lowest measured density” mean for day care? A ZIP is listed only when Census published at least 5 day care with paid employees, the ZIP has at least 10,000 residents, and a one-sided Poisson test finds the count statistically below the U.S. rate (p < 0.05). Index 100% is the national density per person present.
Is a low-density ZIP a place to open this kind of business? No. A low published count of day care can mean weak demand, no suitable space, residents shopping near work, or businesses with no paid employees that Census ZBP does not count. Each line is a question to check locally, not a recommendation.
Why is a state missing from this list? A state page exists only when at least one ZIP in the counties we cover clears the same test as the radius search. We do not publish an empty list. Coverage is those counties, not the whole state.
← All states for day care · Day care in Arizona (county totals) · Search by radius
BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.