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San Joaquin County, CA — Hotels Saturation

How many hotels exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 40 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Hotels · Motels · Motor inns. Counted together because official statistics use one 721110 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.48× the U.S. rate (between 0.48× and 0.82× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 28 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 21 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   San Joaquin County hotels — 48–82% of the U.S. rate

61 hotels are counted in San Joaquin County — 0.7 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 48% of the U.S. rate of 1.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 25% between 2015 and 2023 (44 → 55). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 95202 (Stockton), 95240 (Lodi), 95215 (Stockton) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 95206 (Stockton), 95205 (Stockton), 95219 (Stockton).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 68 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: San Joaquin County sits at 48% of the U.S. rate for hotels. 21 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 48% and 82% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 95202 and 95240; the lowest measured density is in 95206 and 95205.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing hotels and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Hotels
61–117
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (28 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.7
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.4
per 10,000 present
County index
0.48×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
68
2023 — $58M annual payroll
Residents
796,477
33 ZIPs with data
Workers
232,266
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
816,108
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+4.5%
+35,432 people
Net migration 2024
+7,486
international +7,528, domestic −42
Jobs located here
280,616
LODES 2022, +12.4% since 2019

San Joaquin County had an estimated 816,108 residents on July 1, 2024 — 4.5% more than in 2020 (+35,432). In the latest year it gained 10,199 people: births minus deaths +2,674, international migration +7,528, domestic migration −42. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

280,616 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+12.4% since 2019), and 329,516 employed residents lived there (+9.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
95330 Lathrop
+55.5%
95391 Tracy
+27.0%
95337 Manteca
+24.4%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes hotels only combined with other traveler accommodation (NAICS 7211), so a hotels-and-motels-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more hotels in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 25% since 2015

Number of hotels in San Joaquin County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

44
2015
49
2018
56
2020
60
2021
55
2022
55
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
95202 Stockton
216%
95240 Lodi
122%
95215 Stockton
118%
95304 Tracy
108%
95330 Lathrop
106%
95376 Tracy
81%
95336 Manteca
76%
95207 Stockton
71%
95242 Lodi
67%
95219 Stockton
59%
95205 Stockton
49%
95206 Stockton
47%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
95206 Stockton
47%
95205 Stockton
49%
95219 Stockton
59%
95242 Lodi
67%
95207 Stockton
71%
95336 Manteca
76%
95376 Tracy
81%
95330 Lathrop
106%
95304 Tracy
108%
95215 Stockton
118%
95240 Lodi
122%
95202 Stockton
216%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few hotels may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersHotelsIndex
95211Stockton Employment hub 7651,885 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = hotels per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersHotels Per 10kIndexStatus
95202Stockton 7,0665,977 3 3.0 216% High density
95240Lodi 50,51717,954 10 1.7 122% Above average
95215Stockton 24,84711,847 5 1.6 118% Above average
95304Tracy 15,84121,820 4 1.5 108% Above average
95330Lathrop 35,39511,344 6 1.5 106% Above average
95376Tracy 54,48816,349 7 1.1 81% Below average
95336Manteca 50,18513,731 6 1.1 76% Below average
95207Stockton 52,41416,922 6 1.0 71% Below average
95242Lodi 28,4277,950 3 0.9 67% Below average
95219Stockton 31,7139,951 3 0.8 59% Below average
95205Stockton 39,6089,910 3 0.7 49% Far below average
95206Stockton 68,55817,888 5 0.6 47% Far below average
95201Stockton —153 0–2 — — Not published
95203Stockton 15,9304,381 0–2 — — Not published
95204Stockton 31,0357,912 0–2 — — Not published
95208Stockton —83 0–2 — — Not published
95209Stockton 47,4093,485 0–2 — — Not published
95210Stockton 41,5497,535 0–2 — — Not published
95211Stockton 7651,885 0–2 — — Not published
95212Stockton 28,4373,711 0–2 — — Not published
95213Stockton —214 0–2 — — Not published
95220Acampo 7,9311,102 0–2 — — Not published
95227Clements 910148 0–2 — — Not published
95230Farmington 403231 0–2 — — Not published
95231French Camp 3,8965,235 0–2 — — Not published
95236Linden 4,490903 0–2 — — Not published
95237Lockeford 3,639704 0–2 — — Not published
95241Lodi —66 0–2 — — Not published
95253Victor 60917 0–2 — — Not published
95258Woodbridge 4,144334 0–2 — — Not published
95267Stockton —16 0–2 — — Not published
95269Stockton —15 0–2 — — Not published
95320Escalon 13,5002,087 0–2 — — Not published
95337Manteca 48,73110,123 0–2 — — Not published
95366Ripon 18,9545,188 0–2 — — Not published
95377Tracy 37,73914,361 0–2 — — Not published
95378Tracy —233 0–2 — — Not published
95385Vernalis 602160 0–2 — — Not published
95391Tracy 25,574875 0–2 — — Not published
95686Thornton 1,171246 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Tracy

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Tracy retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Tracy retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Tracy retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow San Joaquin County and hotels

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 721110 — hotels (except casino hotels) and motels. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 68 establishments and $58M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.38 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.