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Marin County, CA — Hotels Saturation

How many hotels exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 37 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Hotels · Motels · Motor inns. Counted together because official statistics use one 721110 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.75× the U.S. rate (between 0.75× and 1.77× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 31 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 22 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Marin County hotels — 75–177% of the U.S. rate

32 hotels are counted in Marin County — 1.0 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 75% of the U.S. rate of 1.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 14% between 2015 and 2023 (29 → 25). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 94965 (Sausalito), 94941 (Mill Valley), 94949 (Novato) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 94903 (San Rafael), 94901 (San Rafael), 94920 (Belvedere Tiburon).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 41 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Marin County sits at 75% of the U.S. rate for hotels. 22 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 75% and 177% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 94965 and 94941; the lowest measured density is in 94903 and 94901.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing hotels and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Hotels
32–94
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (31 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.0
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.4
per 10,000 present
County index
0.75×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
41
2023 — $74M annual payroll
Residents
257,061
28 ZIPs with data
Workers
106,330
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
256,400
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−1.9%
−4,941 people
Net migration 2024
+758
international +2,263, domestic −1,505
Jobs located here
109,616
LODES 2022, −3.6% since 2019

Marin County had an estimated 256,400 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.9% fewer than in 2020 (−4,941). In the latest year it gained 694 people: births minus deaths −73, international migration +2,263, domestic migration −1,505. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

109,616 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−3.6% since 2019), and 108,072 employed residents lived there (−1.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
94925 Corte Madera
+2.4%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes hotels only combined with other traveler accommodation (NAICS 7211), so a hotels-and-motels-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more hotels in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 14% since 2015

Number of hotels in Marin County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

29
2015
27
2018
27
2020
25
2021
27
2022
25
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
94965 Sausalito
191%
94941 Mill Valley
175%
94949 Novato
157%
94920 Belvedere Tiburon
156%
94901 San Rafael
95%
94903 San Rafael
76%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
94903 San Rafael
76%
94901 San Rafael
95%
94920 Belvedere Tiburon
156%
94949 Novato
157%
94941 Mill Valley
175%
94965 Sausalito
191%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few hotels may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersHotelsIndex
94950Olema Employment hub 2259 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = hotels per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersHotels Per 10kIndexStatus
94965Sausalito 11,7246,910 4 2.6 191% High density
94941Mill Valley 32,7069,219 9 2.4 175% High density
94949Novato 17,78710,558 5 2.2 157% High density
94920Belvedere Tiburon 12,6092,566 3 2.2 156% High density
94901San Rafael 41,30724,497 7 1.3 95% Below average
94903San Rafael 30,61515,001 4 1.0 76% Below average
94904Greenbrae 12,8155,815 0–2 — — Not published
94912San Rafael —65 0–2 — — Not published
94913San Rafael —9 0–2 — — Not published
94914Kentfield —19 0–2 — — Not published
94915San Rafael —8 0–2 — — Not published
94924Bolinas 1,372313 0–2 — — Not published
94925Corte Madera 10,0776,263 0–2 — — Not published
94929Dillon Beach 29354 0–2 — — Not published
94930Fairfax 8,4061,776 0–2 — — Not published
94933Forest Knolls 1,03368 0–2 — — Not published
94937Inverness 1,009177 0–2 — — Not published
94938Lagunitas 43748 0–2 — — Not published
94939Larkspur 7,3155,155 0–2 — — Not published
94940Marshall 148123 0–2 — — Not published
94942Mill Valley —49 0–2 — — Not published
94945Novato 17,6358,667 0–2 — — Not published
94946Nicasio 71595 0–2 — — Not published
94947Novato 24,1003,492 0–2 — — Not published
94948Novato —149 0–2 — — Not published
94950Olema 2259 0–2 — — Not published
94956Point Reyes Station 1,080675 0–2 — — Not published
94957Ross 2,321519 0–2 — — Not published
94960San Anselmo 16,2323,374 0–2 — — Not published
94963San Geronimo 739133 0–2 — — Not published
94964San Quentin 2,34419 0–2 — — Not published
94966Sausalito —36 0–2 — — Not published
94970Stinson Beach 255175 0–2 — — Not published
94971Tomales 27635 0–2 — — Not published
94973Woodacre 1,689544 0–2 — — Not published
94976Corte Madera —102 0–2 — — Not published
94978Fairfax —8 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in San Rafael

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse San Rafael retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse San Rafael retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse San Rafael retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Marin County and hotels

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 721110 — hotels (except casino hotels) and motels. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 41 establishments and $74M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.38 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.