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Harford County, MD — Gyms Saturation

How many gyms exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 20 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Gyms & fitness centers · CrossFit boxes · Boxing, martial arts & dance studios · Recreational sports centers. Counted together because official statistics use one 713940 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.74× the U.S. rate (between 0.74× and 1.71× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 15 ZIP cells in this county are withheld. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Harford County gyms — 74–171% of the U.S. rate

23 gyms are counted in Harford County — 0.8 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 74% of the U.S. rate of 1.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 5% between 2015 and 2023 (21 → 20). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 21050 (Forest Hill), 21047 (Fallston), 21015 (Bel Air) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 21009 (Abingdon), 21014 (Bel Air), 21015 (Bel Air).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 32 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Harford County sits at 74% of the U.S. rate for gyms. 15 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 74% and 171% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 21050 and 21047; the lowest measured density is in 21009 and 21014.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing gyms and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Gyms
23–53
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (15 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.8
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.74×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
32
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
262,768
20 ZIPs with data
Workers
79,293
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
265,514
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+1.6%
+4,269 people
Net migration 2024
+610
international +360, domestic +250
Jobs located here
83,536
LODES 2022, −0.7% since 2019

Harford County had an estimated 265,514 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.6% more than in 2020 (+4,269). In the latest year it gained 743 people: births minus deaths +147, international migration +360, domestic migration +250. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

83,536 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−0.7% since 2019), and 119,089 employed residents lived there (−3.0% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
21009 Abingdon
+12.6%
21001 Aberdeen
+9.8%
21078 Havre De Grace
+9.1%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. NES 2024 does not publish fitness and recreational sports centers (NAICS 71394); only the broader recreation group (7139) is available.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more gyms in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 5% since 2015

Number of gyms in Harford County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

21
2015
23
2018
22
2020
20
2021
22
2022
20
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
21050 Forest Hill
189%
21047 Fallston
186%
21015 Bel Air
147%
21014 Bel Air
146%
21009 Abingdon
106%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
21009 Abingdon
106%
21014 Bel Air
146%
21015 Bel Air
147%
21047 Fallston
186%
21050 Forest Hill
189%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few gyms may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersGymsIndex
21010Gunpowder Employment hub 2391,165 0–2 —
21130Perryman Destination 1121,354 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = gyms per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGyms Per 10kIndexStatus
21050Forest Hill 17,4666,206 4 1.9 189% High density
21047Fallston 13,8523,668 3 1.9 186% High density
21015Bel Air 30,0136,216 5 1.5 147% Above average
21014Bel Air 38,70716,027 7 1.5 146% Above average
21009Abingdon 33,6795,969 4 1.1 106% Above average
21001Aberdeen 27,16811,492 0–2 — — Not published
21005Aberdeen Proving Ground 2,2023,150 0–2 — — Not published
21010Gunpowder 2391,165 0–2 — — Not published
21017Belcamp 6,6484,721 0–2 — — Not published
21028Churchville 3,103629 0–2 — — Not published
21034Darlington 2,846611 0–2 — — Not published
21040Edgewood 24,9605,960 0–2 — — Not published
21078Havre De Grace 20,0305,525 0–2 — — Not published
21084Jarrettsville 7,0701,044 0–2 — — Not published
21085Joppa 17,3073,148 0–2 — — Not published
21130Perryman 1121,354 0–2 — — Not published
21132Pylesville 3,160121 0–2 — — Not published
21154Street 6,544904 0–2 — — Not published
21160Whiteford 2,441753 0–2 — — Not published
21161White Hall 5,221630 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Bel Air

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Bel Air retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Bel Air retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Bel Air retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Harford County and gyms

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 713940 — fitness & recreational sports centers (gyms). Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 32 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.