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Pima County, AZ — Grocery stores Saturation

How many grocery stores exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 63 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Supermarkets · Grocery stores · Neighborhood food markets. Counted together because official statistics use one 445110 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.55× the U.S. rate (between 0.55× and 0.82× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 44 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 26 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Pima County grocery stores — 55–82% of the U.S. rate

107 grocery stores are counted in Pima County — 0.9 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 55% of the U.S. rate of 1.6.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 9% between 2015 and 2023 (114 → 104). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 85704 (Tucson), 85712 (Tucson), 85719 (Tucson) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 85730 (Tucson), 85711 (Tucson), 85706 (Tucson).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 103 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Pima County sits at 55% of the U.S. rate for grocery stores. 26 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 55% and 82% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 85704 and 85712; the lowest measured density is in 85730 and 85711.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing grocery stores and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Grocery stores
107–195
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (44 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.9
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
1.6
per 10,000 present
County index
0.55×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
103
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,072,121
45 ZIPs with data
Workers
336,499
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,080,149
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+3.3%
+34,922 people
Net migration 2024
+12,394
international +8,351, domestic +4,043
Jobs located here
369,943
LODES 2022, +0.9% since 2019

Pima County had an estimated 1,080,149 residents on July 1, 2024 — 3.3% more than in 2020 (+34,922). In the latest year it gained 11,570 people: births minus deaths −873, international migration +8,351, domestic migration +4,043. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

369,943 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+0.9% since 2019), and 398,246 employed residents lived there (+1.4% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
85658 Marana
+39.8%
85641 Vail
+28.3%
85629 Sahuarita
+22.9%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
85634 Sells
−23.3%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes grocery stores only combined with convenience stores in this dataset, so a grocery-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more grocery stores in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 9% since 2015

Number of grocery stores in Pima County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

114
2015
113
2018
108
2020
107
2021
108
2022
104
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
85704 Tucson
162%
85712 Tucson
150%
85719 Tucson
118%
85714 Tucson
117%
85713 Tucson
92%
85710 Tucson
89%
85746 Tucson
84%
85715 Tucson
83%
85737 Tucson
76%
85743 Tucson
74%
85716 Tucson
68%
85614 Green Valley
66%
85705 Tucson
65%
85741 Tucson
62%
85747 Tucson
62%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
85730 Tucson
47%
85711 Tucson
47%
85706 Tucson
57%
85745 Tucson
61%
85747 Tucson
62%
85741 Tucson
62%
85705 Tucson
65%
85614 Green Valley
66%
85716 Tucson
68%
85743 Tucson
74%
85737 Tucson
76%
85715 Tucson
83%
85746 Tucson
84%
85710 Tucson
89%
85713 Tucson
92%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few grocery stores may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersGrocery storesIndex
85723Tucson Destination 2443,287 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = grocery stores per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersGrocery stores Per 10kIndexStatus
85704Tucson 35,21016,716 11 2.5 162% High density
85712Tucson 31,57122,712 10 2.3 150% Above average
85719Tucson 51,83316,135 11 1.8 118% Above average
85714Tucson 14,49814,969 4 1.8 117% Above average
85713Tucson 46,43919,275 8 1.4 92% Below average
85710Tucson 56,12517,797 9 1.4 89% Below average
85746Tucson 42,8355,877 6 1.3 84% Below average
85715Tucson 19,1988,358 3 1.3 83% Below average
85737Tucson 22,7855,110 3 1.2 76% Below average
85743Tucson 31,3006,912 4 1.2 74% Below average
85716Tucson 32,9769,840 4 1.1 68% Below average
85614Green Valley 25,3817,321 3 1.0 66% Below average
85705Tucson 54,70030,065 7 1.0 65% Below average
85741Tucson 33,67915,130 4 1.0 62% Below average
85747Tucson 27,7536,918 3 1.0 62% Below average
85745Tucson 36,9999,686 4 1.0 61% Below average
85706Tucson 54,23626,512 6 0.9 57% Below average
85711Tucson 42,55823,824 4 0.7 47% Far below average
85730Tucson 39,3993,478 3 0.7 47% Far below average
85321Ajo 3,555406 0–2 — — Not published
85341Lukeville 3724 0–2 — — Not published
85601Arivaca 26880 0–2 — — Not published
85619Mount Lemmon 073 0–2 — — Not published
85622Green Valley 6,518699 0–2 — — Not published
85629Sahuarita 31,6683,364 0–2 — — Not published
85634Sells 5,038460 0–2 — — Not published
85641Vail 34,7521,412 0–2 — — Not published
85645Amado 1,24994 0–2 — — Not published
85653Marana 23,5742,469 0–2 — — Not published
85654Rillito 0343 0–2 — — Not published
85658Marana 16,0511,782 0–2 — — Not published
85701Tucson 5,4987,408 0–2 — — Not published
85702Tucson —43 0–2 — — Not published
85707Tucson 581679 0–2 — — Not published
85708Tucson 4,31246 0–2 — — Not published
85709Tucson 094 0–2 — — Not published
85717Tucson —51 0–2 — — Not published
85718Tucson 28,12512,865 0–2 — — Not published
85721Tucson 099 0–2 — — Not published
85723Tucson 2443,287 0–2 — — Not published
85724Tucson 03,438 0–2 — — Not published
85726Tucson 0109 0–2 — — Not published
85728Tucson —29 0–2 — — Not published
85731Tucson —743 0–2 — — Not published
85732Tucson —122 0–2 — — Not published
85733Tucson —16 0–2 — — Not published
85734Tucson 4,79778 0–2 — — Not published
85735Tucson 10,718349 0–2 — — Not published
85736Tucson 4,219155 0–2 — — Not published
85738Catalina —59 0–2 — — Not published
85739Tucson 18,4782,402 0–2 — — Not published
85740Tucson —57 0–2 — — Not published
85742Tucson 31,6133,130 0–2 — — Not published
85744Tucson —597 0–2 — — Not published
85748Tucson 20,1032,376 0–2 — — Not published
85749Tucson 18,8432,361 0–2 — — Not published
85750Tucson 24,8863,162 0–2 — — Not published
85751Tucson —144 0–2 — — Not published
85752Tucson —42 0–2 — — Not published
85754Tucson —107 0–2 — — Not published
85755Tucson 18,5605,103 0–2 — — Not published
85756Tucson 37,70015,263 0–2 — — Not published
85757Tucson 21,259410 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Tucson

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Tucson retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Tucson retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Tucson retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Pima County and grocery stores

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 445110 — supermarkets & other grocery stores. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 103 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (1.55 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.