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Frederick County, MD — Fast food Saturation

How many fast food exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 26 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Fast food · Quick-service restaurants · Takeout & delivery counters · Pizza delivery · Sandwich & burger chains. Counted together because official statistics use one 722513 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.97× the U.S. rate (between 0.97× and 1.09× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 14 ZIP cells in this county are withheld. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   Frederick County fast food — 97–109% of the U.S. rate

227 fast food are counted in Frederick County — 6.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 97% of the U.S. rate of 6.7.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 18% between 2015 and 2023 (187 → 220). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 21704 (Frederick), 21701 (Frederick), 21716 (Brunswick) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 21769 (Middletown), 21770 (Monrovia), 21774 (New Market).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 216 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Frederick County sits at 97% of the U.S. rate for fast food. 14 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 97% and 109% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 21704 and 21701; the lowest measured density is in 21769 and 21770.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing fast food and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Fast food
227–255
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (14 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
6.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.7
per 10,000 present
County index
0.97×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
216
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
299,035
26 ZIPs with data
Workers
100,227
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
299,317
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+9.7%
+26,530 people
Net migration 2024
+4,324
international +1,778, domestic +2,546
Jobs located here
104,346
LODES 2022, +0.2% since 2019

Frederick County had an estimated 299,317 residents on July 1, 2024 — 9.7% more than in 2020 (+26,530). In the latest year it gained 5,163 people: births minus deaths +848, international migration +1,778, domestic migration +2,546. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

104,346 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+0.2% since 2019), and 136,767 employed residents lived there (+4.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
21770 Monrovia
+58.7%
21716 Brunswick
+41.8%
21774 New Market
+30.9%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
54
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$4.1M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$76K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more fast food in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 18% since 2015

Number of fast food in Frederick County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

187
2015
220
2018
212
2020
220
2021
224
2022
220
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
21704 Frederick
187%
21701 Frederick
171%
21716 Brunswick
157%
21727 Emmitsburg
123%
21788 Thurmont
102%
21703 Frederick
91%
21702 Frederick
88%
21771 Mount Airy
81%
21793 Walkersville
76%
21774 New Market
67%
21770 Monrovia
47%
21769 Middletown
47%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
21769 Middletown
47%
21770 Monrovia
47%
21774 New Market
67%
21793 Walkersville
76%
21771 Mount Airy
81%
21702 Frederick
88%
21703 Frederick
91%
21788 Thurmont
102%
21727 Emmitsburg
123%
21716 Brunswick
157%
21701 Frederick
171%
21704 Frederick
187%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few fast food may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersFast foodIndex
21705Frederick Destination 6333 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = fast food per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersFast food Per 10kIndexStatus
21704Frederick 20,00616,206 35 12.5 187% High density
21701Frederick 43,04825,929 64 11.4 171% High density
21716Brunswick 7,200828 8 10.5 157% High density
21727Emmitsburg 6,0522,484 6 8.2 123% Above average
21788Thurmont 11,6543,063 9 6.8 102% Above average
21703Frederick 41,96018,318 31 6.1 91% Below average
21702Frederick 49,60512,976 33 5.9 88% Below average
21771Mount Airy 33,0317,538 20 5.4 81% Below average
21793Walkersville 10,7192,180 6 5.1 76% Below average
21774New Market 17,1341,401 8 4.5 67% Below average
21770Monrovia 8,7511,461 3 3.2 47% Far below average
21769Middletown 11,9651,649 4 3.1 47% Far below average
21705Frederick 6333 0–2 — — Not published
21710Adamstown 4,661524 0–2 — — Not published
21714Braddock Heights 9525 0–2 — — Not published
21717Buckeystown 245181 0–2 — — Not published
21754Ijamsville 8,1562,039 0–2 — — Not published
21755Jefferson 5,909674 0–2 — — Not published
21758Knoxville 4,409402 0–2 — — Not published
21762Libertytown 13967 0–2 — — Not published
21773Myersville 5,826687 0–2 — — Not published
21777Point Of Rocks 2,462552 0–2 — — Not published
21778Rocky Ridge 745125 0–2 — — Not published
21780Sabillasville 2,159132 0–2 — — Not published
21790Tuscarora 17025 0–2 — — Not published
21798Woodsboro 2,928428 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Frederick

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Frederick retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Frederick retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Frederick retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Frederick County and fast food

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722513 — limited-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 216 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.67 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.