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Middlesex County, MA — Fast food Saturation

How many fast food exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 98 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Fast food · Quick-service restaurants · Takeout & delivery counters · Pizza delivery · Sandwich & burger chains. Counted together because official statistics use one 722513 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.85× the U.S. rate (between 0.85× and 0.88× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 31 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 16 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Below the U.S. rate   Middlesex County fast food — 85–88% of the U.S. rate

1,216 fast food are counted in Middlesex County — 5.7 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 85% of the U.S. rate of 6.7.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2015 and 2023 (1,214 → 1,204).

Measured supply density is highest in 01803 (Burlington), 02143 (Somerville), 02145 (Somerville) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 01748 (Hopkinton), 02421 (Lexington), 01746 (Holliston).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 1,179 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Middlesex County sits at 85% of the U.S. rate for fast food. 16 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 85% and 88% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 01803 and 02143; the lowest measured density is in 01748 and 02421.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing fast food and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Fast food
1,216–1,278
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (31 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
5.7
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.7
per 10,000 present
County index
0.85×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
1,179
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
1,653,842
83 ZIPs with data
Workers
958,530
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,668,956
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+2.5%
+41,378 people
Net migration 2024
+19,403
international +29,046, domestic −9,643
Jobs located here
944,369
LODES 2022, −0.8% since 2019

Middlesex County had an estimated 1,668,956 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.5% more than in 2020 (+41,378). In the latest year it gained 24,024 people: births minus deaths +4,525, international migration +29,046, domestic migration −9,643. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

944,369 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−0.8% since 2019), and 822,882 employed residents lived there (−2.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01432 Ayer
+10.7%
01748 Hopkinton
+10.0%
02149 Everett
+8.5%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01464 Shirley
−8.6%
01821 Billerica
−8.1%
01803 Burlington
−5.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
258
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$18.8M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$73K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more fast food in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 1% since 2015

Number of fast food in Middlesex County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

1,214
2015
1,275
2018
1,283
2020
1,267
2021
1,218
2022
1,204
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01803 Burlington
155%
02143 Somerville
144%
02145 Somerville
141%
02452 Waltham
136%
02472 Watertown
135%
01760 Natick
132%
02420 Lexington
130%
02141 Cambridge
128%
01754 Maynard
122%
01701 Framingham
119%
01876 Tewksbury
109%
01752 Marlborough
109%
02478 Belmont
107%
01879 Tyngsboro
104%
02459 Newton Center
104%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01748 Hopkinton
17%
02421 Lexington
32%
01746 Holliston
34%
02458 Newton
44%
02474 Arlington
44%
02467 Chestnut Hill
44%
02493 Weston
45%
01702 Framingham
45%
01778 Wayland
48%
01730 Bedford
51%
01863 North Chelmsford
53%
02461 Newton Highlands
53%
01776 Sudbury
54%
02139 Cambridge
57%
01854 Lowell
58%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few fast food may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersFast foodIndex
02451Waltham Employment hub 17,39359,760 94 298%
02142Cambridge Employment hub 4,73731,327 11 81%
01434Devens Employment hub 1,5644,918 0–2 —
02462Newton Lower Falls Employment hub 1,4705,891 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = fast food per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersFast food Per 10kIndexStatus
02451Waltham 17,39359,760 94 19.9 298% Very high density
01803Burlington 26,27440,471 48 10.3 155% High density
02143Somerville 25,51311,442 30 9.6 144% Above average
02145Somerville 27,4956,587 29 9.4 141% Above average
02452Waltham 15,8088,200 18 9.0 136% Above average
02472Watertown 35,62017,292 40 9.0 135% Above average
01760Natick 36,78221,689 42 8.8 132% Above average
02464Newton Upper Falls 3,8333,819 5 8.7 131% Above average
02420Lexington 16,2154,413 16 8.7 130% Above average
02141Cambridge 14,51715,363 19 8.6 128% Above average
01754Maynard 10,7123,080 10 8.2 122% Above average
01701Framingham 32,61828,173 37 7.9 119% Above average
01876Tewksbury 31,00414,955 28 7.3 109% Above average
01752Marlborough 41,64743,679 46 7.2 109% Above average
02478Belmont 27,1757,481 22 7.1 107% Above average
01879Tyngsboro 12,5503,772 10 6.9 104% Above average
02459Newton Center 18,44912,295 17 6.9 104% Above average
01749Hudson 20,0779,145 17 6.9 103% Above average
01880Wakefield 27,79314,674 24 6.8 102% Above average
02144Somerville 25,4485,471 19 6.7 101% Above average
01469Townsend 6,8201,363 5 6.7 100% Below average
01852Lowell 37,1449,846 28 6.7 100% Below average
01721Ashland 18,8734,438 14 6.6 99% Below average
02476Arlington 17,7083,887 13 6.6 99% Below average
02149Everett 50,04514,514 36 6.3 94% Below average
01824Chelmsford 26,65020,094 23 6.3 94% Below average
01801Woburn 41,93947,661 41 6.2 93% Below average
02465West Newton 11,6972,691 8 6.1 92% Below average
01720Acton 23,52610,629 17 5.9 88% Below average
02176Melrose 29,6505,241 19 5.9 88% Below average
02140Cambridge 21,2049,129 15 5.8 87% Below average
01867Reading 25,6126,756 16 5.5 83% Below average
02138Cambridge 38,50946,771 34 5.5 82% Below average
02142Cambridge 4,73731,327 11 5.4 81% Below average
02460Newtonville 10,0992,429 6 5.3 79% Below average
02180Stoneham 23,3557,742 14 5.1 77% Below average
01826Dracut 32,6295,452 18 5.1 76% Below average
01886Westford 24,6909,553 15 5.1 76% Below average
01432Ayer 8,5214,132 5 4.7 71% Below average
02148Malden 65,90612,471 34 4.7 71% Below average
02155Medford 61,73022,673 34 4.7 70% Below average
01862North Billerica 12,12911,110 8 4.5 68% Below average
01850Lowell 17,7401,500 8 4.3 65% Below average
01821Billerica 30,14315,332 16 4.2 63% Below average
01864North Reading 15,7656,881 8 4.2 62% Below average
01742Concord 18,44811,358 10 4.1 62% Below average
01890Winchester 23,4066,381 11 4.1 62% Below average
01887Wilmington 23,33626,779 15 4.1 61% Below average
01450Groton 11,3561,923 5 4.1 61% Below average
01851Lowell 33,40313,356 16 4.0 60% Below average
02453Waltham 31,59122,576 17 4.0 59% Below average
01464Shirley 6,9761,571 3 3.9 58% Below average
01854Lowell 30,0817,284 13 3.9 58% Below average
02139Cambridge 40,03357,246 26 3.8 57% Below average
01776Sudbury 19,2705,788 8 3.6 54% Below average
02461Newton Highlands 6,9752,905 3 3.6 53% Below average
01863North Chelmsford 9,7962,960 4 3.5 53% Below average
01730Bedford 14,70723,516 9 3.4 51% Below average
01778Wayland 14,0333,272 5 3.2 48% Far below average
01702Framingham 39,78912,859 14 3.0 45% Far below average
02493Weston 11,5793,311 4 3.0 45% Far below average
02467Chestnut Hill 23,00114,964 9 3.0 44% Far below average
02474Arlington 28,6423,974 9 2.9 44% Far below average
02458Newton 13,0508,239 5 2.9 44% Far below average
01746Holliston 15,0945,337 4 2.3 34% Far below average
02421Lexington 18,08020,781 6 2.1 32% Far below average
01748Hopkinton 19,35813,167 3 1.2 17% Far below average
01431Ashby 3,211224 0–2 — — Not published
01434Devens 1,5644,918 0–2 — — Not published
01460Littleton 10,2806,243 0–2 — — Not published
01463Pepperell 11,6971,887 0–2 — — Not published
01471Groton —360 0–2 — — Not published
01472West Groton —147 0–2 — — Not published
01474West Townsend 2,280106 0–2 — — Not published
01703Framingham —27 0–2 — — Not published
01704Framingham —12 0–2 — — Not published
01718Acton 4047 0–2 — — Not published
01719Boxborough 5,4963,309 0–2 — — Not published
01731Hanscom Afb 2,110168 0–2 — — Not published
01741Carlisle 5,239556 0–2 — — Not published
01770Sherborn 4,427471 0–2 — — Not published
01773Lincoln 4,8911,992 0–2 — — Not published
01775Stow 7,165957 0–2 — — Not published
01805Burlington —4,971 0–2 — — Not published
01827Dunstable 3,408224 0–2 — — Not published
01853Lowell —406 0–2 — — Not published
01865Nutting Lake —5 0–2 — — Not published
01866Pinehurst —16 0–2 — — Not published
01888Woburn —534 0–2 — — Not published
02153Medford —168 0–2 — — Not published
02238Cambridge —2,153 0–2 — — Not published
02454Waltham —592 0–2 — — Not published
02455North Waltham —34 0–2 — — Not published
02462Newton Lower Falls 1,4705,891 0–2 — — Not published
02466Auburndale 8,67916,302 0–2 — — Not published
02468Waban 5,773345 0–2 — — Not published
02471Watertown —772 0–2 — — Not published
02475Arlington Heights —49 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Waltham

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Waltham retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Waltham retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Waltham retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Middlesex County and fast food

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722513 — limited-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 1,179 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.67 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.