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San Mateo County, CA — Fast food Saturation

How many fast food exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 36 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Fast food · Quick-service restaurants · Takeout & delivery counters · Pizza delivery · Sandwich & burger chains. Counted together because official statistics use one 722513 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.95× the U.S. rate (between 0.95× and 0.97× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 14 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 8 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   San Mateo County fast food — 95–97% of the U.S. rate

611 fast food are counted in San Mateo County — 6.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 95% of the U.S. rate of 6.7.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 11% between 2015 and 2023 (546 → 608). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 94063 (Redwood City), 94401 (San Mateo), 94019 (Half Moon Bay) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 94402 (San Mateo), 94062 (Redwood City), 94065 (Redwood City).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 618 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: San Mateo County sits at 95% of the U.S. rate for fast food. 8 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 95% and 97% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 94063 and 94401; the lowest measured density is in 94402 and 94062.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing fast food and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Fast food
611–639
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (14 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
6.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.7
per 10,000 present
County index
0.95×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
618
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
713,109
29 ZIPs with data
Workers
457,352
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
742,893
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−2.6%
−19,834 people
Net migration 2024
+6,444
international +12,450, domestic −6,006
Jobs located here
423,564
LODES 2022, +5.7% since 2019

San Mateo County had an estimated 742,893 residents on July 1, 2024 — 2.6% fewer than in 2020 (−19,834). In the latest year it gained 8,626 people: births minus deaths +2,180, international migration +12,450, domestic migration −6,006. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

423,564 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+5.7% since 2019), and 369,131 employed residents lived there (−5.5% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
94002 Belmont
+1.4%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
94019 Half Moon Bay
−29.7%
94025 Menlo Park
−6.2%
94027 Atherton
−5.6%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
127
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$10.1M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$79K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more fast food in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 11% since 2015

Number of fast food in San Mateo County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

546
2015
605
2018
555
2020
556
2021
587
2022
608
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
94063 Redwood City
169%
94401 San Mateo
157%
94019 Half Moon Bay
151%
94030 Millbrae
145%
94044 Pacifica
125%
94014 Daly City
124%
94015 Daly City
117%
94070 San Carlos
115%
94404 San Mateo
110%
94080 South San Francisco
99%
94066 San Bruno
98%
94403 San Mateo
93%
94002 Belmont
87%
94010 Burlingame
77%
94061 Redwood City
64%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
94402 San Mateo
20%
94062 Redwood City
26%
94065 Redwood City
33%
94028 Portola Valley
60%
94061 Redwood City
64%
94010 Burlingame
77%
94002 Belmont
87%
94403 San Mateo
93%
94066 San Bruno
98%
94080 South San Francisco
99%
94404 San Mateo
110%
94070 San Carlos
115%
94015 Daly City
117%
94014 Daly City
124%
94044 Pacifica
125%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few fast food may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersFast foodIndex
94005Brisbane Employment hub 4,69210,733 4 60%
94025Menlo Park Employment hub 40,72198,797 31 52%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = fast food per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersFast food Per 10kIndexStatus
94063Redwood City 34,43337,534 60 11.3 169% High density
94401San Mateo 35,29515,587 45 10.4 157% High density
94019Half Moon Bay 14,4194,848 17 10.1 151% High density
94030Millbrae 22,6894,103 24 9.7 145% Above average
94044Pacifica 37,2744,375 33 8.4 125% Above average
94014Daly City 45,31510,505 42 8.3 124% Above average
94015Daly City 64,09112,281 55 7.8 117% Above average
94070San Carlos 30,44720,055 31 7.7 115% Above average
94404San Mateo 35,88126,284 36 7.3 110% Above average
94080South San Francisco 64,76162,055 63 6.6 99% Below average
94066San Bruno 42,72814,982 33 6.6 98% Below average
94403San Mateo 43,27632,578 37 6.2 93% Below average
94002Belmont 27,5347,308 18 5.8 87% Below average
94010Burlingame 43,02531,028 30 5.1 77% Below average
94061Redwood City 37,0485,379 17 4.3 64% Below average
94028Portola Valley 6,5311,822 3 4.0 60% Below average
94005Brisbane 4,69210,733 4 4.0 60% Below average
94025Menlo Park 40,72198,797 31 3.4 52% Below average
94065Redwood City 11,67322,511 5 2.2 33% Far below average
94062Redwood City 25,7595,867 5 1.7 26% Far below average
94402San Mateo 25,47524,824 5 1.3 20% Far below average
94011Burlingame —35 0–2 — — Not published
94017Daly City —149 0–2 — — Not published
94018El Granada 3,834717 0–2 — — Not published
94020La Honda 1,694164 0–2 — — Not published
94021Loma Mar 32142 0–2 — — Not published
94026Menlo Park —156 0–2 — — Not published
94027Atherton 7,0021,883 0–2 — — Not published
94037Montara 2,917201 0–2 — — Not published
94038Moss Beach 2,683374 0–2 — — Not published
94060Pescadero 1,465474 0–2 — — Not published
94064Redwood City —79 0–2 — — Not published
94074San Gregorio 12641 0–2 — — Not published
94083South San Francisco —129 0–2 — — Not published
94128San Francisco 013,241 17 — — Not published
94497San Mateo —48 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Menlo Park

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Menlo Park retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Menlo Park retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Menlo Park retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow San Mateo County and fast food

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722513 — limited-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 618 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.67 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.