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Kern County, CA — Fast food Saturation

How many fast food exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 56 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Fast food · Quick-service restaurants · Takeout & delivery counters · Pizza delivery · Sandwich & burger chains. Counted together because official statistics use one 722513 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.04× the U.S. rate (between 1.04× and 1.08× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 28 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 16 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   Kern County fast food — 104–108% of the U.S. rate

709 fast food are counted in Kern County — 6.9 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 104% of the U.S. rate of 6.7.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 26% between 2015 and 2023 (548 → 691). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 93301 (Bakersfield), 93309 (Bakersfield), 93268 (Taft) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 93263 (Shafter), 93314 (Bakersfield), 93505 (California City).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 730 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Kern County sits at 104% of the U.S. rate for fast food. 16 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 104% and 108% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 93301 and 93309; the lowest measured density is in 93263 and 93314.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing fast food and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Fast food
709–765
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (28 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
6.9
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
6.7
per 10,000 present
County index
1.04×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
730
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
915,763
44 ZIPs with data
Workers
218,146
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
922,529
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+1.8%
+16,405 people
Net migration 2024
+2,469
international +4,623, domestic −2,154
Jobs located here
301,425
LODES 2022, +2.3% since 2019

Kern County had an estimated 922,529 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.8% more than in 2020 (+16,405). In the latest year it gained 5,883 people: births minus deaths +3,358, international migration +4,623, domestic migration −2,154. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

301,425 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+2.3% since 2019), and 329,553 employed residents lived there (+6.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
93314 Bakersfield
+22.2%
93311 Bakersfield
+22.1%
93263 Shafter
+8.2%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
93561 Tehachapi
−10.9%
93203 Arvin
−8.6%
93280 Wasco
−2.6%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
148
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$8.9M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$60K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more fast food in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 26% since 2015

Number of fast food in Kern County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

548
2015
653
2018
628
2020
644
2021
675
2022
691
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
93301 Bakersfield
261%
93309 Bakersfield
168%
93268 Taft
140%
93304 Bakersfield
131%
93308 Bakersfield
128%
93561 Tehachapi
120%
93215 Delano
116%
93240 Lake Isabella
115%
93312 Bakersfield
114%
93555 Ridgecrest
109%
93313 Bakersfield
105%
93241 Lamont
104%
93306 Bakersfield
101%
93305 Bakersfield
94%
93311 Bakersfield
90%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
93263 Shafter
30%
93314 Bakersfield
47%
93505 California City
51%
93560 Rosamond
53%
93250 Mc Farland
56%
93307 Bakersfield
63%
93501 Mojave
72%
93280 Wasco
83%
93203 Arvin
86%
93311 Bakersfield
90%
93305 Bakersfield
94%
93306 Bakersfield
101%
93241 Lamont
104%
93313 Bakersfield
105%
93555 Ridgecrest
109%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few fast food may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersFast foodIndex
93524Edwards Destination 571,048 4 1032%
93243Lebec Employment hub 8342,391 6 443%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = fast food per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersFast food Per 10kIndexStatus
93524Edwards 571,048 4 68.8 1032% Very high density
93243Lebec 8342,391 6 29.6 443% Very high density
93527Inyokern 1,831141 4 21.0 315% Very high density
93301Bakersfield 13,62022,131 43 17.4 261% Very high density
93249Lost Hills 2,2431,736 5 16.1 241% High density
93309Bakersfield 63,21723,343 84 11.2 168% High density
93268Taft 16,9632,553 17 9.3 140% Above average
93304Bakersfield 51,0377,850 48 8.7 131% Above average
93308Bakersfield 55,07833,182 61 8.5 128% Above average
93561Tehachapi 31,1754,957 27 8.0 120% Above average
93215Delano 54,5566,820 45 7.8 116% Above average
93240Lake Isabella 5,9811,062 5 7.7 115% Above average
93312Bakersfield 58,38412,355 49 7.6 114% Above average
93555Ridgecrest 33,8456,657 27 7.3 109% Above average
93313Bakersfield 61,84316,038 49 7.0 105% Above average
93241Lamont 15,2501,095 11 7.0 104% Above average
93306Bakersfield 74,1168,665 53 6.8 101% Above average
93305Bakersfield 37,7144,702 25 6.2 94% Below average
93311Bakersfield 55,55512,659 37 6.0 90% Below average
93203Arvin 20,7123,669 13 5.8 86% Below average
93280Wasco 27,4072,668 16 5.6 83% Below average
93501Mojave 6,4353,742 4 4.8 72% Below average
93307Bakersfield 85,94514,643 39 4.2 63% Below average
93250Mc Farland 15,599891 6 3.7 56% Below average
93560Rosamond 22,1191,295 8 3.5 53% Below average
93505California City 14,353740 5 3.4 51% Below average
93314Bakersfield 35,4075,013 12 3.2 47% Far below average
93263Shafter 24,02411,557 6 2.0 30% Far below average
93205Bodfish 1,70828 0–2 — — Not published
93206Buttonwillow 1,898727 0–2 — — Not published
93216Delano —779 0–2 — — Not published
93220Edison 079 0–2 — — Not published
93222Pine Mountain Club 2,721171 0–2 — — Not published
93224Fellows 414354 0–2 — — Not published
93225Frazier Park 4,663279 0–2 — — Not published
93226Glennville 587 0–2 — — Not published
93238Kernville 887454 0–2 — — Not published
93251Mc Kittrick 274363 0–2 — — Not published
93252Maricopa 1,295133 0–2 — — Not published
93283Weldon 2,32659 0–2 — — Not published
93285Wofford Heights 2,920186 0–2 — — Not published
93303Bakersfield —234 0–2 — — Not published
93380Bakersfield —95 0–2 — — Not published
93384Bakersfield —8 0–2 — — Not published
93386Bakersfield —6 0–2 — — Not published
93387Bakersfield —57 0–2 — — Not published
93389Bakersfield —104 0–2 — — Not published
93390Bakersfield —45 0–2 — — Not published
93502Mojave —14 0–2 — — Not published
93504California City —12 0–2 — — Not published
93516Boron 2,8891,057 0–2 — — Not published
93518Caliente 1,20537 0–2 — — Not published
93523Edwards 3,502244 0–2 — — Not published
93531Keene 515402 0–2 — — Not published
93556Ridgecrest —13 0–2 — — Not published
93581Tehachapi 3,18842 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Bakersfield

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Bakersfield retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Bakersfield retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Bakersfield retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Kern County and fast food

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 722513 — limited-service restaurants. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 730 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (6.67 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.