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Erie County, NY — Dentists Saturation

How many dentists exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 73 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: General & family dentists · Orthodontists · Oral surgeons · Other dental specialists. Counted together because official statistics use one 621210 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.79× the U.S. rate (between 0.79× and 0.97× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 42 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 35 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Erie County dentists — 79–97% of the U.S. rate

306 dentists are counted in Erie County — 2.6 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 79% of the U.S. rate of 3.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 19% between 2015 and 2023 (354 → 288). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 14209 (Buffalo), 14051 (East Amherst), 14226 (Buffalo) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 14215 (Buffalo), 14213 (Buffalo), 14072 (Grand Island).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 300 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Erie County sits at 79% of the U.S. rate for dentists. 35 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 79% and 97% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 14209 and 14051; the lowest measured density is in 14215 and 14213.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing dentists and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Dentists
306–390
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (42 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.6
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
3.4
per 10,000 present
County index
0.79×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
300
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
948,221
66 ZIPs with data
Workers
414,184
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
950,602
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−0.2%
−1,751 people
Net migration 2024
+2,757
international +5,371, domestic −2,614
Jobs located here
475,018
LODES 2022, −3.6% since 2019

Erie County had an estimated 950,602 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.2% fewer than in 2020 (−1,751). In the latest year it gained 2,216 people: births minus deaths −568, international migration +5,371, domestic migration −2,614. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

475,018 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−3.6% since 2019), and 429,001 employed residents lived there (−3.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
14212 Buffalo
+24.1%
14228 Buffalo
+16.1%
14086 Lancaster
+9.4%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
98
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$6.2M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$63K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more dentists in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 19% since 2015

Number of dentists in Erie County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

354
2015
332
2018
311
2020
318
2021
299
2022
288
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
14209 Buffalo
242%
14051 East Amherst
222%
14226 Buffalo
188%
14221 Buffalo
174%
14043 Depew
154%
14127 Orchard Park
144%
14224 Buffalo
143%
14068 Getzville
143%
14223 Buffalo
136%
14031 Clarence
120%
14227 Buffalo
111%
14059 Elma
108%
14219 Buffalo
105%
14141 Springville
98%
14075 Hamburg
96%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
14215 Buffalo
19%
14213 Buffalo
35%
14072 Grand Island
36%
14217 Buffalo
46%
14086 Lancaster
50%
14225 Buffalo
58%
14220 Buffalo
63%
14218 Buffalo
66%
14150 Tonawanda
69%
14222 Buffalo
70%
14004 Alden
73%
14228 Buffalo
81%
14052 East Aurora
81%
14214 Buffalo
82%
14216 Buffalo
93%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few dentists may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDentistsIndex
14203Buffalo Employment hub 2,42424,197 5 103%
14134Sardinia Employment hub 32154 0–2 —
14202Buffalo Employment hub 3,86221,925 0–2 —
14260Buffalo Employment hub 9242,400 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = dentists per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDentists Per 10kIndexStatus
14209Buffalo 8,3135,573 9 8.1 242% High density
14051East Amherst 19,7393,441 16 7.5 222% High density
14226Buffalo 29,15914,884 23 6.3 188% High density
14221Buffalo 55,25546,958 46 5.8 174% High density
14043Depew 25,09811,786 16 5.2 154% High density
14127Orchard Park 31,54315,809 19 4.8 144% Above average
14224Buffalo 41,21913,381 23 4.8 143% Above average
14068Getzville 8,63612,031 7 4.8 143% Above average
14223Buffalo 22,6112,922 11 4.6 136% Above average
14031Clarence 9,8855,061 5 4.0 120% Above average
14227Buffalo 20,6217,177 9 3.7 111% Above average
14059Elma 9,1383,753 4 3.6 108% Above average
14219Buffalo 10,6527,159 5 3.5 105% Above average
14203Buffalo 2,42424,197 5 3.4 103% Above average
14141Springville 7,6033,046 3 3.3 98% Below average
14075Hamburg 44,52010,368 16 3.2 96% Below average
14216Buffalo 22,8495,522 8 3.1 93% Below average
14214Buffalo 21,3148,133 7 2.8 82% Below average
14052East Aurora 17,5149,140 6 2.7 81% Below average
14228Buffalo 25,35015,784 9 2.7 81% Below average
14004Alden 11,3961,898 3 2.4 73% Below average
14222Buffalo 15,3113,481 4 2.3 70% Below average
14150Tonawanda 41,26021,679 12 2.3 69% Below average
14218Buffalo 20,3124,329 5 2.2 66% Below average
14220Buffalo 24,4287,962 6 2.1 63% Below average
14225Buffalo 33,62026,107 9 1.9 58% Below average
14086Lancaster 35,63511,976 7 1.7 50% Below average
14217Buffalo 22,4716,869 4 1.5 46% Far below average
14072Grand Island 21,4886,653 3 1.2 36% Far below average
14213Buffalo 24,1073,563 3 1.2 35% Far below average
14215Buffalo 42,5249,465 3 0.6 19% Far below average
14001Akron 8,9372,610 0–2 — — Not published
14006Angola 9,260949 0–2 — — Not published
14010Athol Springs —98 0–2 — — Not published
14025Boston 3,243257 0–2 — — Not published
14026Bowmansville 617496 0–2 — — Not published
14027Brant 142152 0–2 — — Not published
14030Chaffee 2,067573 0–2 — — Not published
14032Clarence Center 10,2221,329 0–2 — — Not published
14033Colden 1,539202 0–2 — — Not published
14034Collins 2,086267 0–2 — — Not published
14035Collins Center 1522 0–2 — — Not published
14047Derby 6,0131,089 0–2 — — Not published
14055East Concord 1,41856 0–2 — — Not published
14057Eden 7,972842 0–2 — — Not published
14061Farnham 9333 0–2 — — Not published
14069Glenwood 443255 0–2 — — Not published
14080Holland 4,444627 0–2 — — Not published
14085Lake View 8,531327 0–2 — — Not published
14091Lawtons 1,31622 0–2 — — Not published
14102Marilla 1,85650 0–2 — — Not published
14110North Boston —77 0–2 — — Not published
14111North Collins 3,186641 0–2 — — Not published
14134Sardinia 32154 0–2 — — Not published
14139South Wales 2,113249 0–2 — — Not published
14151Tonawanda —115 0–2 — — Not published
14169Wales Center 7777 0–2 — — Not published
14170West Falls 2,292296 0–2 — — Not published
14201Buffalo 12,3694,039 0–2 — — Not published
14202Buffalo 3,86221,925 0–2 — — Not published
14204Buffalo 7,9324,580 0–2 — — Not published
14205Buffalo —108 0–2 — — Not published
14206Buffalo 21,6318,431 0–2 — — Not published
14207Buffalo 26,3279,331 0–2 — — Not published
14208Buffalo 12,5721,988 0–2 — — Not published
14210Buffalo 15,56312,568 0–2 — — Not published
14211Buffalo 24,6633,621 0–2 — — Not published
14212Buffalo 13,2992,550 0–2 — — Not published
14231Buffalo —235 0–2 — — Not published
14240Buffalo —1,358 0–2 — — Not published
14260Buffalo 9242,400 0–2 — — Not published
14261Buffalo 5,0331,089 0–2 — — Not published
14263Buffalo —1,095 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Buffalo

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Buffalo retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Buffalo retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Buffalo retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Erie County and dentists

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 621210 — offices of dentists. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 300 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (3.35 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.