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Pinal County, AZ — Dentists Saturation

How many dentists exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 27 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: General & family dentists · Orthodontists · Oral surgeons · Other dental specialists. Counted together because official statistics use one 621210 code.

Measured density: Well below average — 0.39× the U.S. rate (between 0.39× and 0.57× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 18 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 14 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Well below the U.S. rate   Pinal County dentists — 39–57% of the U.S. rate

60 dentists are counted in Pinal County — 1.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 39% of the U.S. rate of 3.4.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 13% between 2015 and 2023 (48 → 54). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 85139 (Maricopa), 85118 (Gold Canyon), 85122 (Casa Grande) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 85138 (Maricopa), 85132 (Florence), 85119 (Apache Junction).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 66 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Pinal County sits at 39% of the U.S. rate for dentists. 14 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 39% and 57% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 85139 and 85118; the lowest measured density is in 85138 and 85132.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing dentists and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Dentists
60–96
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (18 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
3.4
per 10,000 present
County index
0.39×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
66
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
429,927
23 ZIPs with data
Workers
59,779
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
513,862
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+19.4%
+83,649 people
Net migration 2024
+26,370
international +3,140, domestic +23,230
Jobs located here
67,670
LODES 2022, +8.6% since 2019

Pinal County had an estimated 513,862 residents on July 1, 2024 — 19.4% more than in 2020 (+83,649). In the latest year it gained 27,467 people: births minus deaths +1,000, international migration +3,140, domestic migration +23,230. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

67,670 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+8.6% since 2019), and 190,574 employed residents lived there (+25.8% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
85138 Maricopa
+43.7%
85139 Maricopa
+15.9%
85128 Coolidge
+14.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
85173 Superior
−16.1%
85131 Eloy
−6.3%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
82
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$8.5M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$103K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more dentists in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 13% since 2015

Number of dentists in Pinal County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

48
2015
58
2018
60
2020
60
2021
54
2022
54
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
85139 Maricopa
131%
85118 Gold Canyon
75%
85122 Casa Grande
70%
85140 San Tan Valley
50%
85120 Apache Junction
43%
85143 San Tan Valley
39%
85119 Apache Junction
33%
85132 Florence
22%
85138 Maricopa
21%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
85138 Maricopa
21%
85132 Florence
22%
85119 Apache Junction
33%
85143 San Tan Valley
39%
85120 Apache Junction
43%
85140 San Tan Valley
50%
85122 Casa Grande
70%
85118 Gold Canyon
75%
85139 Maricopa
131%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few dentists may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = dentists per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDentists Per 10kIndexStatus
85139Maricopa 20,7844,084 10 4.4 131% Above average
85118Gold Canyon 14,9321,758 4 2.5 75% Below average
85122Casa Grande 61,62413,728 16 2.3 70% Below average
85140San Tan Valley 51,2604,452 9 1.7 50% Below average
85120Apache Junction 31,1916,222 5 1.5 43% Far below average
85143San Tan Valley 44,4443,057 6 1.3 39% Far below average
85119Apache Junction 25,4203,434 3 1.1 33% Far below average
85132Florence 38,6712,989 3 0.7 22% Far below average
85138Maricopa 55,2602,198 4 0.7 21% Far below average
85117Apache Junction —28 0–2 — — Not published
85123Arizona City 10,003453 0–2 — — Not published
85128Coolidge 19,4872,579 0–2 — — Not published
85130Casa Grande —284 0–2 — — Not published
85131Eloy 18,7943,018 0–2 — — Not published
85137Kearny 2,406557 0–2 — — Not published
85141Picacho 36480 0–2 — — Not published
85144San Tan Valley —144 0–2 — — Not published
85145Red Rock 3,27748 0–2 — — Not published
85147Sacaton 4,9111,315 0–2 — — Not published
85172Stanfield 1,688349 0–2 — — Not published
85173Superior 2,600448 0–2 — — Not published
85178Apache Junction —10 0–2 — — Not published
85193Casa Grande 4,1186,312 0–2 — — Not published
85194Casa Grande 8,0771,842 0–2 — — Not published
85618Mammoth 1,55078 0–2 — — Not published
85623Oracle 5,558669 0–2 — — Not published
85631San Manuel 3,508109 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Casa Grande

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Casa Grande retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Casa Grande retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Casa Grande retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Pinal County and dentists

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 621210 — offices of dentists. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 66 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (3.35 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.