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Queens County, NY — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 68 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.31× the U.S. rate (between 1.31× and 1.35× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 16 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 10 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Queens County day care — 131–135% of the U.S. rate

697 day care are counted in Queens County — 2.7 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 131% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 23% between 2015 and 2023 (555 → 680). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 11363 (Little Neck), 11367 (Flushing), 11366 (Fresh Meadows) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 11378 (Maspeth), 11426 (Bellerose), 11414 (Howard Beach).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 707 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Queens County sits at 131% of the U.S. rate for day care. 10 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 131% and 135% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 11363 and 11367; the lowest measured density is in 11378 and 11426.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
697–729
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (16 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.7
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
1.31×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
707
2023 — $378M annual payroll
Residents
2,320,056
62 ZIPs with data
Workers
589,818
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
2,316,841
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−3.1%
−72,972 people
Net migration 2024
+13,219
international +44,137, domestic −30,918
Jobs located here
698,206
LODES 2022, −2.8% since 2019

Queens County had an estimated 2,316,841 residents on July 1, 2024 — 3.1% fewer than in 2020 (−72,972). In the latest year it gained 22,159 people: births minus deaths +9,031, international migration +44,137, domestic migration −30,918. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

698,206 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−2.8% since 2019), and 956,248 employed residents lived there (−10.6% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11101 Long Island City
+34.6%
11436 Jamaica
+17.5%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
7,193
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$136.0M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$19K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 23% since 2015

Number of day care in Queens County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

555
2015
616
2018
630
2020
619
2021
641
2022
680
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11363 Little Neck
384%
11367 Flushing
335%
11366 Fresh Meadows
295%
11434 Jamaica
265%
11369 East Elmhurst
250%
11412 Saint Albans
230%
11413 Springfield Gardens
204%
11691 Far Rockaway
202%
11435 Jamaica
201%
11422 Rosedale
196%
11358 Flushing
192%
11354 Flushing
191%
11421 Woodhaven
176%
11361 Bayside
175%
11106 Astoria
170%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11378 Maspeth
32%
11426 Bellerose
72%
11414 Howard Beach
75%
11377 Woodside
76%
11427 Queens Village
76%
11370 East Elmhurst
76%
11419 South Richmond Hill
79%
11104 Sunnyside
86%
11373 Elmhurst
86%
11433 Jamaica
87%
11357 Whitestone
94%
11372 Jackson Heights
96%
11423 Hollis
98%
11356 College Point
98%
11417 Ozone Park
102%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
11430Jamaica Destination 58848,511 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
11363Little Neck 7,223971 6 7.8 384% Very high density
11367Flushing 40,9236,443 30 6.8 335% Very high density
11366Fresh Meadows 13,4633,141 9 6.0 295% Very high density
11434Jamaica 68,26312,043 40 5.4 265% Very high density
11369East Elmhurst 35,1334,632 19 5.1 250% High density
11412Saint Albans 39,8281,577 19 4.7 230% High density
11413Springfield Gardens 45,9654,629 20 4.1 204% High density
11691Far Rockaway 69,35912,827 31 4.1 202% High density
11435Jamaica 56,8269,131 25 4.1 201% High density
11422Rosedale 33,7572,811 14 4.0 196% High density
11358Flushing 37,6656,913 16 3.9 192% High density
11354Flushing 53,02838,429 28 3.9 191% High density
11421Woodhaven 40,6122,569 15 3.6 176% High density
11361Bayside 30,12712,915 13 3.6 175% High density
11106Astoria 40,93010,764 16 3.5 170% High density
11102Astoria 28,5038,452 11 3.4 166% High density
11362Little Neck 18,4925,658 7 3.3 162% High density
11429Queens Village 26,8323,260 9 3.2 156% High density
11436Jamaica 22,5271,032 7 3.0 150% Above average
11364Oakland Gardens 35,2762,901 11 3.0 148% Above average
11418Richmond Hill 35,48111,871 12 2.9 143% Above average
11101Long Island City 42,21961,248 21 2.9 142% Above average
11411Cambria Heights 20,5401,088 6 2.8 140% Above average
11432Jamaica 62,89223,695 20 2.7 132% Above average
11103Astoria 35,1637,424 10 2.6 127% Above average
11692Arverne 22,7341,562 6 2.6 126% Above average
11105Astoria 37,93610,419 11 2.5 126% Above average
11355Flushing 80,80124,332 23 2.5 122% Above average
11374Rego Park 46,98913,157 13 2.4 120% Above average
11368Corona 105,71612,652 27 2.4 119% Above average
11416Ozone Park 25,9196,876 7 2.4 117% Above average
11385Ridgewood 101,70417,258 26 2.4 116% Above average
11379Middle Village 36,7734,217 9 2.3 114% Above average
11375Forest Hills 76,83932,690 21 2.3 111% Above average
11365Fresh Meadows 42,3228,191 10 2.2 106% Above average
11693Far Rockaway 13,2441,549 3 2.1 105% Above average
11420South Ozone Park 49,4154,161 11 2.1 105% Above average
11417Ozone Park 30,5786,694 7 2.1 102% Above average
11356College Point 25,8248,541 6 2.0 98% Below average
11423Hollis 28,5343,234 6 2.0 98% Below average
11372Jackson Heights 64,75614,564 14 1.9 96% Below average
11357Whitestone 43,3467,427 9 1.9 94% Below average
11433Jamaica 37,8843,841 7 1.8 87% Below average
11373Elmhurst 98,40321,364 19 1.7 86% Below average
11104Sunnyside 26,1325,222 5 1.7 86% Below average
11419South Richmond Hill 47,4414,788 8 1.6 79% Below average
11370East Elmhurst 30,2673,899 5 1.6 76% Below average
11427Queens Village 24,6072,612 4 1.5 76% Below average
11377Woodside 81,69019,278 14 1.5 76% Below average
11414Howard Beach 31,3083,434 5 1.5 75% Below average
11426Bellerose 19,4112,395 3 1.5 72% Below average
11378Maspeth 36,39220,308 3 0.6 32% Far below average
11004Glen Oaks 13,6152,914 0–2 — — Not published
11005Floral Park 2,174211 0–2 — — Not published
11109Long Island City 7,948460 0–2 — — Not published
11120Long Island City —102 0–2 — — Not published
11351Flushing —1,261 0–2 — — Not published
11352Flushing —16 0–2 — — Not published
11360Bayside 19,4692,924 0–2 — — Not published
11371Flushing 09,506 0–2 — — Not published
11415Kew Gardens 21,1544,716 0–2 — — Not published
11424Jamaica 015 0–2 — — Not published
11428Queens Village 19,0282,022 0–2 — — Not published
11430Jamaica 58848,511 0–2 — — Not published
11431Jamaica —7 0–2 — — Not published
11439Jamaica 2,1703,911 0–2 — — Not published
11694Rockaway Park 21,4892,562 0–2 — — Not published
11697Breezy Point 4,429498 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Long Island City

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Long Island City retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Long Island City retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Long Island City retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Queens County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 707 establishments and $378M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.