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Nassau County, NY — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 78 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: High density — 1.87× the U.S. rate (between 1.87× and 2.01× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 33 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 24 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

High density   Nassau County day care — 187–201% of the U.S. rate

645 day care are counted in Nassau County — 3.8 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 187% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 30% between 2015 and 2023 (485 → 629). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 11520 (Freeport), 11553 (Uniondale), 11550 (Hempstead) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 11762 (Massapequa Park), 11530 (Garden City), 11040 (New Hyde Park).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 661 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Nassau County sits at 187% of the U.S. rate for day care. 24 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 187% and 201% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 11520 and 11553; the lowest measured density is in 11762 and 11530.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
645–711
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (33 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
3.8
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
1.87×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
661
2023 — $216M annual payroll
Residents
1,401,387
69 ZIPs with data
Workers
598,752
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,392,438
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.1%
+1,854 people
Net migration 2024
+3,230
international +7,655, domestic −4,425
Jobs located here
638,252
LODES 2022, −1.4% since 2019

Nassau County had an estimated 1,392,438 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.1% more than in 2020 (+1,854). In the latest year it gained 6,386 people: births minus deaths +3,092, international migration +7,655, domestic migration −4,425. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

638,252 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−1.4% since 2019), and 692,699 employed residents lived there (−0.2% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11516 Cedarhurst
+23.6%
11501 Mineola
+10.3%
11550 Hempstead
+5.8%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
11001 Floral Park
−9.0%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
1,701
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$42.8M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$25K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 30% since 2015

Number of day care in Nassau County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

485
2015
549
2018
528
2020
536
2021
561
2022
629
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11520 Freeport
724%
11553 Uniondale
699%
11550 Hempstead
525%
11575 Roosevelt
500%
11590 Westbury
430%
11566 Merrick
343%
11096 Inwood
321%
11560 Locust Valley
280%
11510 Baldwin
260%
11003 Elmont
245%
11714 Bethpage
232%
11572 Oceanside
217%
11565 Malverne
210%
11545 Glen Head
203%
11735 Farmingdale
198%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
11762 Massapequa Park
61%
11530 Garden City
65%
11040 New Hyde Park
79%
11570 Rockville Centre
80%
11501 Mineola
84%
11791 Syosset
88%
11797 Woodbury
91%
11554 East Meadow
94%
11598 Woodmere
96%
11001 Floral Park
99%
11577 Roslyn Heights
100%
11580 Valley Stream
101%
11542 Glen Cove
104%
11050 Port Washington
110%
11561 Long Beach
119%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
11042New Hyde Park Destination 14125,823 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
11520Freeport 44,91013,634 76 14.7 724% Very high density
11553Uniondale 27,87510,521 47 14.2 699% Very high density
11550Hempstead 60,96013,262 72 10.7 525% Very high density
11575Roosevelt 18,7051,973 20 10.2 500% Very high density
11590Westbury 47,59924,032 52 8.7 430% Very high density
11566Merrick 34,7417,989 27 7.0 343% Very high density
11096Inwood 10,4283,707 8 6.5 321% Very high density
11560Locust Valley 7,6962,197 5 5.7 280% Very high density
11510Baldwin 35,7014,368 20 5.3 260% Very high density
11003Elmont 45,1746,119 24 5.0 245% High density
11714Bethpage 22,69514,021 14 4.7 232% High density
11572Oceanside 30,43611,638 16 4.4 217% High density
11565Malverne 9,009753 4 4.3 210% High density
11545Glen Head 12,1724,723 6 4.1 203% High density
11735Farmingdale 32,02835,370 20 4.0 198% High density
11552West Hempstead 25,1744,433 11 4.0 198% High density
11516Cedarhurst 9,1123,466 4 3.7 182% High density
11563Lynbrook 22,8998,125 9 3.3 164% High density
11801Hicksville 41,58525,734 17 3.1 154% High density
11793Wantagh 32,3496,145 11 3.1 153% High density
11558Island Park 8,4542,504 3 3.1 152% High density
11710Bellmore 34,8349,704 12 3.0 149% Above average
11576Roslyn 12,2818,926 5 3.0 147% Above average
11030Manhasset 18,05124,267 9 3.0 147% Above average
11756Levittown 42,6658,788 14 3.0 147% Above average
11758Massapequa 54,37510,555 17 2.8 140% Above average
11581Valley Stream 22,81811,004 8 2.8 139% Above average
11803Plainview 29,71321,821 11 2.7 133% Above average
11783Seaford 21,1274,340 6 2.6 127% Above average
11771Oyster Bay 10,9082,905 3 2.4 120% Above average
11561Long Beach 38,7085,564 10 2.4 119% Above average
11050Port Washington 32,79415,110 9 2.2 110% Above average
11542Glen Cove 28,9658,300 7 2.1 104% Above average
11580Valley Stream 43,09211,427 10 2.0 101% Above average
11577Roslyn Heights 13,0773,488 3 2.0 100% Below average
11001Floral Park 25,4938,936 6 2.0 99% Below average
11598Woodmere 13,5993,661 3 1.9 96% Below average
11554East Meadow 36,82110,500 8 1.9 94% Below average
11797Woodbury 9,40213,628 3 1.9 91% Below average
11791Syosset 25,52016,204 6 1.8 88% Below average
11501Mineola 21,64115,644 5 1.7 84% Below average
11570Rockville Centre 28,90816,228 6 1.6 80% Below average
11040New Hyde Park 41,98828,601 9 1.6 79% Below average
11530Garden City 27,93935,781 6 1.3 65% Below average
11762Massapequa Park 22,4873,641 3 1.2 61% Below average
11002Floral Park —8 0–2 — — Not published
11010Franklin Square 25,6044,241 0–2 — — Not published
11020Great Neck 5,676704 0–2 — — Not published
11021Great Neck 19,78315,316 0–2 — — Not published
11022Great Neck —26 0–2 — — Not published
11023Great Neck 9,6301,844 0–2 — — Not published
11024Great Neck 9,155970 0–2 — — Not published
11042New Hyde Park 14125,823 0–2 — — Not published
11507Albertson 6,7361,750 0–2 — — Not published
11509Atlantic Beach 1,790497 0–2 — — Not published
11514Carle Place 4,5444,096 0–2 — — Not published
11518East Rockaway 10,1491,450 0–2 — — Not published
11531Garden City —61 0–2 — — Not published
11547Glenwood Landing 706171 0–2 — — Not published
11548Greenvale 2,2614,259 0–2 — — Not published
11549Hempstead 2,3593,099 0–2 — — Not published
11551Hempstead —8 0–2 — — Not published
11555Uniondale —449 0–2 — — Not published
11556Uniondale 03,287 0–2 — — Not published
11557Hewlett 8,5043,736 0–2 — — Not published
11559Lawrence 8,8785,252 0–2 — — Not published
11568Old Westbury 4,1442,787 0–2 — — Not published
11569Point Lookout 945209 0–2 — — Not published
11571Rockville Centre —35 0–2 — — Not published
11579Sea Cliff 5,033891 0–2 — — Not published
11582Valley Stream —148 0–2 — — Not published
11596Williston Park 10,5162,229 0–2 — — Not published
11709Bayville 6,744616 0–2 — — Not published
11732East Norwich 3,228688 0–2 — — Not published
11753Jericho 12,43512,846 0–2 — — Not published
11765Mill Neck 683312 0–2 — — Not published
11802Hicksville —168 0–2 — — Not published
11804Old Bethpage 4,8351,229 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Garden City

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Garden City retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Garden City retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Garden City retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Nassau County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 661 establishments and $216M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.