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Ocean County, NJ — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 31 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.83× the U.S. rate (between 0.83× and 1.02× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 16 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 14 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Ocean County day care — 83–102% of the U.S. rate

125 day care are counted in Ocean County — 1.7 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 83% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 14% between 2015 and 2023 (101 → 115). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 08734 (Lanoka Harbor), 08701 (Lakewood), 08722 (Beachwood) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 08724 (Brick), 08005 (Barnegat), 08087 (Tuckerton).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 133 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Ocean County sits at 83% of the U.S. rate for day care. 14 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 83% and 102% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 08734 and 08701; the lowest measured density is in 08724 and 08005.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
125–157
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (16 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.7
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.83×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
133
2023 — $63M annual payroll
Residents
653,364
29 ZIPs with data
Workers
171,260
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
666,434
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+4.4%
+27,880 people
Net migration 2024
+2,906
international +1,776, domestic +1,130
Jobs located here
172,716
LODES 2022, +3.9% since 2019

Ocean County had an estimated 666,434 residents on July 1, 2024 — 4.4% more than in 2020 (+27,880). In the latest year it gained 5,989 people: births minus deaths +3,079, international migration +1,776, domestic migration +1,130. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

172,716 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+3.9% since 2019), and 260,786 employed residents lived there (+4.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
08701 Lakewood
+35.8%
08755 Toms River
+14.4%
08050 Manahawkin
+11.0%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
08722 Beachwood
−1.2%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
1,232
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$30.4M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$25K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 14% since 2015

Number of day care in Ocean County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

101
2015
112
2018
107
2020
104
2021
112
2022
115
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
08734 Lanoka Harbor
226%
08701 Lakewood
146%
08722 Beachwood
130%
08731 Forked River
125%
08723 Brick
105%
08755 Toms River
94%
08753 Toms River
79%
08050 Manahawkin
75%
08527 Jackson
70%
08742 Point Pleasant Beach
67%
08757 Toms River
66%
08721 Bayville
60%
08087 Tuckerton
55%
08005 Barnegat
52%
08724 Brick
31%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
08724 Brick
31%
08005 Barnegat
52%
08087 Tuckerton
55%
08721 Bayville
60%
08757 Toms River
66%
08742 Point Pleasant Beach
67%
08527 Jackson
70%
08050 Manahawkin
75%
08753 Toms River
79%
08755 Toms River
94%
08723 Brick
105%
08731 Forked River
125%
08722 Beachwood
130%
08701 Lakewood
146%
08734 Lanoka Harbor
226%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
08734Lanoka Harbor 7,8791,670 4 4.6 226% High density
08701Lakewood 139,14958,640 50 3.0 146% Above average
08722Beachwood 11,088620 3 2.6 130% Above average
08731Forked River 21,6293,911 6 2.5 125% Above average
08723Brick 32,14110,870 8 2.1 105% Above average
08755Toms River 29,67013,659 7 1.9 94% Below average
08753Toms River 65,44819,507 12 1.6 79% Below average
08050Manahawkin 28,0539,186 5 1.5 75% Below average
08527Jackson 58,9919,255 9 1.4 70% Below average
08742Point Pleasant Beach 25,7327,334 4 1.4 67% Below average
08757Toms River 36,0872,295 5 1.3 66% Below average
08721Bayville 22,7833,348 3 1.2 60% Below average
08087Tuckerton 25,3423,010 3 1.1 55% Below average
08005Barnegat 26,8662,633 3 1.1 52% Below average
08724Brick 42,34512,182 3 0.6 31% Far below average
08006Barnegat Light 500268 0–2 — — Not published
08008Beach Haven 6,8373,122 0–2 — — Not published
08092West Creek 3,119822 0–2 — — Not published
08533New Egypt 7,563726 0–2 — — Not published
08732Island Heights 1,558231 0–2 — — Not published
08733Lakehurst 2,8161,186 0–2 — — Not published
08735Lavallette 3,451619 0–2 — — Not published
08738Mantoloking 1,38164 0–2 — — Not published
08739Normandy Beach —26 0–2 — — Not published
08740Ocean Gate 1,599147 0–2 — — Not published
08741Pine Beach 2,709283 0–2 — — Not published
08751Seaside Heights 4,185782 0–2 — — Not published
08752Seaside Park 2,338363 0–2 — — Not published
08754Toms River —977 0–2 — — Not published
08758Waretown 7,8681,081 0–2 — — Not published
08759Manchester Township 34,2373,446 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Lakewood

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Lakewood retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Lakewood retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Lakewood retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Ocean County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 133 establishments and $63M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.