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Wayne County, MI — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 76 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.92× the U.S. rate (between 0.92× and 1.00× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 26 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 17 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   Wayne County day care — 92–100% of the U.S. rate

395 day care are counted in Wayne County — 1.9 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 92% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 36% between 2015 and 2023 (263 → 357). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 48240 (Redford), 48193 (Riverview), 48221 (Detroit) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 48212 (Hamtramck), 48146 (Lincoln Park), 48127 (Dearborn Heights).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 409 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Wayne County sits at 92% of the U.S. rate for day care. 17 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 92% and 100% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 48240 and 48193; the lowest measured density is in 48212 and 48146.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
395–447
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (26 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.9
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.92×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
409
2023 — $166M annual payroll
Residents
1,792,362
67 ZIPs with data
Workers
640,223
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,771,063
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
−1.0%
−18,592 people
Net migration 2024
+6,636
international +16,206, domestic −9,570
Jobs located here
669,243
LODES 2021, −8.1% since 2019

Wayne County had an estimated 1,771,063 residents on July 1, 2024 — 1.0% fewer than in 2020 (−18,592). In the latest year it gained 8,692 people: births minus deaths +2,025, international migration +16,206, domestic migration −9,570. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

669,243 jobs were located in the county in 2021 (−8.1% since 2019), and 670,458 employed residents lived there (−9.4% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2021 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend. The 2022 file for this state is not usable, so 2021 is the latest year shown.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
48124 Dearborn
+21.4%
48122 Melvindale
+21.3%
48128 Dearborn
+20.3%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
48209 Detroit
−14.0%
48214 Detroit
−13.9%
48203 Highland Park
−13.1%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
4,173
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$61.6M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$15K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 36% since 2015

Number of day care in Wayne County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

263
2015
290
2018
307
2020
317
2021
348
2022
357
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
48240 Redford
292%
48193 Riverview
250%
48221 Detroit
206%
48225 Harper Woods
200%
48173 Rockwood
184%
48239 Redford
176%
48235 Detroit
174%
48184 Wayne
173%
48223 Detroit
164%
48234 Detroit
156%
48187 Canton
145%
48185 Westland
144%
48152 Livonia
142%
48228 Detroit
142%
48205 Detroit
139%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
48212 Hamtramck
32%
48146 Lincoln Park
36%
48127 Dearborn Heights
46%
48135 Garden City
51%
48236 Grosse Pointe
52%
48203 Highland Park
58%
48154 Livonia
61%
48125 Dearborn Heights
64%
48174 Romulus
65%
48213 Detroit
65%
48186 Westland
67%
48150 Livonia
71%
48134 Flat Rock
73%
48101 Allen Park
75%
48111 Belleville
76%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
48226Detroit Employment hub 6,83157,605 3 41%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
48240Redford 17,0083,163 11 5.9 292% Very high density
48193Riverview 16,1193,295 9 5.1 250% High density
48221Detroit 41,3923,447 18 4.2 206% High density
48225Harper Woods 16,0982,277 7 4.1 200% High density
48173Rockwood 12,931862 5 3.7 184% High density
48239Redford 36,9769,806 15 3.6 176% High density
48235Detroit 45,6005,286 17 3.5 174% High density
48184Wayne 17,34810,907 8 3.5 173% High density
48223Detroit 22,6222,820 8 3.3 164% High density
48234Detroit 32,7603,770 11 3.2 156% High density
48187Canton 53,37615,495 18 2.9 145% Above average
48185Westland 48,53012,200 16 2.9 144% Above average
48152Livonia 30,11930,270 13 2.9 142% Above average
48228Detroit 50,1174,218 15 2.9 142% Above average
48205Detroit 34,1872,272 10 2.8 139% Above average
48204Detroit 20,6961,595 6 2.8 138% Above average
48138Grosse Ile 10,344971 3 2.8 136% Above average
48141Inkster 25,4281,740 7 2.7 131% Above average
48227Detroit 40,3023,093 11 2.6 130% Above average
48214Detroit 18,5954,450 5 2.4 118% Above average
48207Detroit 20,8489,932 6 2.3 115% Above average
48238Detroit 24,7312,611 6 2.3 114% Above average
48183Trenton 41,76516,933 11 2.2 108% Above average
48195Southgate 29,3669,217 7 2.1 102% Above average
48167Northville 24,7139,440 6 2.0 100% Above average
48188Canton 45,6659,425 10 2.0 98% Below average
48224Detroit 39,6682,442 8 2.0 96% Below average
48206Detroit 15,227772 3 1.9 95% Below average
48219Detroit 47,2083,625 9 1.8 90% Below average
48202Detroit 15,78024,584 5 1.8 88% Below average
48126Dearborn 51,99731,248 12 1.8 87% Below average
48170Plymouth 40,07633,685 10 1.8 87% Below average
48124Dearborn 34,47923,485 8 1.7 85% Below average
48180Taylor 62,08123,940 12 1.6 80% Below average
48111Belleville 44,70914,326 8 1.5 76% Below average
48101Allen Park 27,92510,096 5 1.5 75% Below average
48134Flat Rock 23,9355,914 4 1.5 73% Below average
48150Livonia 26,68743,888 7 1.4 71% Below average
48186Westland 35,1033,245 5 1.4 67% Below average
48213Detroit 20,0755,083 3 1.3 65% Below average
48174Romulus 32,21127,008 6 1.3 65% Below average
48125Dearborn Heights 22,1252,160 3 1.3 64% Below average
48154Livonia 37,0457,246 5 1.2 61% Below average
48203Highland Park 20,04910,913 3 1.2 58% Below average
48236Grosse Pointe 31,43512,252 4 1.1 52% Below average
48135Garden City 26,7394,138 3 1.0 51% Below average
48127Dearborn Heights 39,6466,180 4 0.9 46% Far below average
48226Detroit 6,83157,605 3 0.8 41% Far below average
48146Lincoln Park 39,2574,613 3 0.7 36% Far below average
48212Hamtramck 43,3844,745 3 0.7 32% Far below average
48112Belleville —105 0–2 — — Not published
48120Dearborn 8,32311,334 0–2 — — Not published
48121Dearborn —4,573 0–2 — — Not published
48122Melvindale 12,5542,535 0–2 — — Not published
48128Dearborn 12,6241,565 0–2 — — Not published
48136Garden City —34 0–2 — — Not published
48151Livonia —1,029 0–2 — — Not published
48153Livonia —15 0–2 — — Not published
48164New Boston 9,5763,979 0–2 — — Not published
48168Northville 25,0384,389 0–2 — — Not published
48192Wyandotte 24,4899,646 0–2 — — Not published
48201Detroit 15,09126,429 0–2 — — Not published
48208Detroit 8,0372,794 0–2 — — Not published
48209Detroit 27,1845,178 0–2 — — Not published
48210Detroit 26,7224,349 0–2 — — Not published
48211Detroit 5,4195,700 0–2 — — Not published
48215Detroit 10,3226,347 0–2 — — Not published
48216Detroit 5,8654,066 0–2 — — Not published
48217Detroit 6,5641,605 0–2 — — Not published
48218River Rouge 7,011857 0–2 — — Not published
48229Ecorse 9,0611,611 0–2 — — Not published
48230Grosse Pointe 17,1745,151 0–2 — — Not published
48232Detroit —123 0–2 — — Not published
48242Detroit 014,188 0–2 — — Not published
48243Detroit 05,336 0–2 — — Not published
48265Detroit —4,578 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Detroit

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Detroit retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Detroit retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Detroit retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Wayne County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 409 establishments and $166M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.