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Washtenaw County, MI — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 18 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.25× the U.S. rate (between 1.25× and 1.32× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 8 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 3 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Above the U.S. rate   Washtenaw County day care — 125–132% of the U.S. rate

110 day care are counted in Washtenaw County — 2.5 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 125% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has stayed roughly flat between 2015 and 2023 (108 → 110).

Measured supply density is highest in 48176 (Saline), 48103 (Ann Arbor), 48118 (Chelsea) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 48198 (Ypsilanti), 48108 (Ann Arbor), 48130 (Dexter).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 113 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Washtenaw County sits at 125% of the U.S. rate for day care. 3 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 125% and 132% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 48176 and 48103; the lowest measured density is in 48198 and 48108.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
110–126
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (8 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.5
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
1.25×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
113
2023 — $43M annual payroll
Residents
355,204
13 ZIPs with data
Workers
154,405
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
373,875
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.5%
+2,026 people
Net migration 2024
+2,758
international +6,476, domestic −3,718
Jobs located here
186,868
LODES 2021, −10.7% since 2019

Washtenaw County had an estimated 373,875 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.5% more than in 2020 (+2,026). In the latest year it gained 3,477 people: births minus deaths +702, international migration +6,476, domestic migration −3,718. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

186,868 jobs were located in the county in 2021 (−10.7% since 2019), and 147,329 employed residents lived there (−9.8% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2021 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend. The 2022 file for this state is not usable, so 2021 is the latest year shown.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
372
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$8.2M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$22K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 2% since 2015

Number of day care in Washtenaw County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

108
2015
116
2018
115
2020
112
2021
109
2022
110
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
48176 Saline
190%
48103 Ann Arbor
181%
48118 Chelsea
179%
48104 Ann Arbor
132%
48189 Whitmore Lake
129%
48105 Ann Arbor
122%
48197 Ypsilanti
121%
48130 Dexter
103%
48108 Ann Arbor
100%
48198 Ypsilanti
93%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
48198 Ypsilanti
93%
48108 Ann Arbor
100%
48130 Dexter
103%
48197 Ypsilanti
121%
48105 Ann Arbor
122%
48189 Whitmore Lake
129%
48104 Ann Arbor
132%
48118 Chelsea
179%
48103 Ann Arbor
181%
48176 Saline
190%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
48109Ann Arbor Employment hub 5,93920,213 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
48176Saline 23,45110,022 11 3.9 190% High density
48103Ann Arbor 55,05426,242 25 3.7 181% High density
48118Chelsea 13,2466,505 6 3.6 179% High density
48104Ann Arbor 43,97923,935 15 2.7 132% Above average
48189Whitmore Lake 13,8932,809 4 2.6 129% Above average
48105Ann Arbor 37,04814,539 11 2.5 122% Above average
48197Ypsilanti 66,52514,110 18 2.4 121% Above average
48130Dexter 16,9864,342 4 2.1 103% Above average
48108Ann Arbor 27,66623,815 8 2.0 100% Below average
48198Ypsilanti 39,2446,167 8 1.9 93% Below average
48106Ann Arbor —2,600 0–2 — — Not published
48107Ann Arbor —241 0–2 — — Not published
48109Ann Arbor 5,93920,213 0–2 — — Not published
48113Ann Arbor —40 0–2 — — Not published
48115Bridgewater —86 0–2 — — Not published
48158Manchester 7,7701,462 0–2 — — Not published
48175Salem —30 0–2 — — Not published
48191Willis 4,403244 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Ann Arbor

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Ann Arbor retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Ann Arbor retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Ann Arbor retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Washtenaw County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 113 establishments and $43M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.