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Hampden County, MA — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 49 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.90× the U.S. rate (between 0.90× and 1.25× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 31 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 19 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Hampden County day care — 90–125% of the U.S. rate

98 day care are counted in Hampden County — 1.8 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 90% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 11% between 2015 and 2023 (101 → 90). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 01109 (Springfield), 01028 (East Longmeadow), 01095 (Wilbraham) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 01020 (Chicopee), 01089 (West Springfield), 01104 (Springfield).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 108 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Hampden County sits at 90% of the U.S. rate for day care. 19 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 90% and 125% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 01109 and 01028; the lowest measured density is in 01020 and 01089.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
98–160
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (31 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.8
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.90×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
108
2023 — $48M annual payroll
Residents
462,692
37 ZIPs with data
Workers
149,833
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
464,151
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.1%
+437 people
Net migration 2024
+2,211
international +2,959, domestic −748
Jobs located here
205,227
LODES 2022, −4.2% since 2019

Hampden County had an estimated 464,151 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.1% more than in 2020 (+437). In the latest year it gained 2,023 people: births minus deaths −202, international migration +2,959, domestic migration −748. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

205,227 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (−4.2% since 2019), and 214,358 employed residents lived there (−2.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01010 Brimfield
+1.3%
01089 West Springfield
+0.6%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
01057 Monson
−7.3%
01040 Holyoke
−6.0%
01077 Southwick
−5.2%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
846
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$37.1M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$44K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — down 11% since 2015

Number of day care in Hampden County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

101
2015
106
2018
100
2020
103
2021
93
2022
90
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01109 Springfield
216%
01028 East Longmeadow
194%
01095 Wilbraham
148%
01077 Southwick
143%
01151 Indian Orchard
141%
01105 Springfield
135%
01118 Springfield
127%
01108 Springfield
121%
01106 Longmeadow
111%
01107 Springfield
111%
01040 Holyoke
107%
01001 Agawam
99%
01013 Chicopee
96%
01056 Ludlow
86%
01085 Westfield
82%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
01020 Chicopee
43%
01089 West Springfield
55%
01104 Springfield
63%
01085 Westfield
82%
01056 Ludlow
86%
01013 Chicopee
96%
01001 Agawam
99%
01040 Holyoke
107%
01107 Springfield
111%
01106 Longmeadow
111%
01108 Springfield
121%
01118 Springfield
127%
01105 Springfield
135%
01151 Indian Orchard
141%
01077 Southwick
143%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
01103Springfield Employment hub 2,4777,545 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
01109Springfield 31,1246,335 15 4.4 216% High density
01028East Longmeadow 16,3217,941 8 3.9 194% High density
01095Wilbraham 14,6184,061 5 3.0 148% Above average
01077Southwick 9,2172,191 3 2.9 143% Above average
01151Indian Orchard 9,6061,770 3 2.9 141% Above average
01105Springfield 11,8435,495 4 2.7 135% Above average
01118Springfield 14,8391,327 4 2.6 127% Above average
01108Springfield 27,4052,269 7 2.5 121% Above average
01106Longmeadow 15,8533,774 4 2.3 111% Above average
01107Springfield 12,0092,700 3 2.2 111% Above average
01040Holyoke 37,81316,879 10 2.2 107% Above average
01001Agawam 16,2347,487 4 2.0 99% Below average
01013Chicopee 23,2844,831 5 1.9 96% Below average
01056Ludlow 20,9044,175 4 1.7 86% Below average
01085Westfield 41,10214,150 8 1.7 82% Below average
01104Springfield 23,20916,297 4 1.3 63% Below average
01089West Springfield 28,77214,507 4 1.1 55% Below average
01020Chicopee 30,1678,947 3 0.9 43% Far below average
01008Blandford 1,327137 0–2 — — Not published
01009Bondsville 80485 0–2 — — Not published
01010Brimfield 3,705527 0–2 — — Not published
01011Chester 1,17526 0–2 — — Not published
01021Chicopee —139 0–2 — — Not published
01022Chicopee 1,8442,967 0–2 — — Not published
01030Feeding Hills 12,3051,239 0–2 — — Not published
01034Granville 2,332125 0–2 — — Not published
01036Hampden 4,946925 0–2 — — Not published
01041Holyoke —804 0–2 — — Not published
01057Monson 8,176831 0–2 — — Not published
01069Palmer 8,8213,403 0–2 — — Not published
01071Russell 1,054126 0–2 — — Not published
01079Thorndike 43852 0–2 — — Not published
01080Three Rivers 2,454279 0–2 — — Not published
01081Wales 1,74776 0–2 — — Not published
01086Westfield —631 0–2 — — Not published
01090West Springfield —146 0–2 — — Not published
01101Springfield —166 0–2 — — Not published
01102Springfield —2,592 0–2 — — Not published
01103Springfield 2,4777,545 0–2 — — Not published
01111Springfield —3,277 0–2 — — Not published
01115Springfield —1,050 0–2 — — Not published
01116Longmeadow —136 0–2 — — Not published
01119Springfield 13,6163,696 0–2 — — Not published
01128Springfield 2,896824 0–2 — — Not published
01129Springfield 5,6721,716 0–2 — — Not published
01138Springfield —5 0–2 — — Not published
01144Springfield 01,296 0–2 — — Not published
01199Springfield —8,423 0–2 — — Not published
01521Holland 2,583118 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Holyoke

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Holyoke retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Holyoke retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Holyoke retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Hampden County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 108 establishments and $48M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.