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Polk County, IA — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 37 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.92× the U.S. rate (between 0.92× and 1.09× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 18 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 12 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   Polk County day care — 92–109% of the U.S. rate

131 day care are counted in Polk County — 1.9 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 92% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 14% between 2015 and 2023 (104 → 119). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 50226 (Polk City), 50327 (Pleasant Hill), 50111 (Grimes) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 50009 (Altoona), 50320 (Des Moines), 50313 (Des Moines).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 128 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Polk County sits at 92% of the U.S. rate for day care. 12 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 92% and 109% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 50226 and 50327; the lowest measured density is in 50009 and 50320.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
131–167
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (18 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.9
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.92×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
128
2023 — $68M annual payroll
Residents
546,696
31 ZIPs with data
Workers
305,833
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
516,185
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+4.7%
+23,146 people
Net migration 2024
+6,200
international +4,984, domestic +1,216
Jobs located here
309,202
LODES 2022, +0.6% since 2019

Polk County had an estimated 516,185 residents on July 1, 2024 — 4.7% more than in 2020 (+23,146). In the latest year it gained 8,698 people: births minus deaths +2,462, international migration +4,984, domestic migration +1,216. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

309,202 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+0.6% since 2019), and 243,300 employed residents lived there (−0.8% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
50266 West Des Moines
+26.6%
50309 Des Moines
+25.7%
50035 Bondurant
+21.5%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
1,120
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$36.3M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$32K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 14% since 2015

Number of day care in Polk County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

104
2015
109
2018
113
2020
115
2021
120
2022
119
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
50226 Polk City
299%
50327 Pleasant Hill
200%
50111 Grimes
184%
50325 Clive
178%
50035 Bondurant
177%
50023 Ankeny
172%
50314 Des Moines
125%
50131 Johnston
122%
50266 West Des Moines
115%
50265 West Des Moines
111%
50315 Des Moines
105%
50323 Urbandale
99%
50021 Ankeny
84%
50322 Urbandale
69%
50313 Des Moines
59%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
50009 Altoona
54%
50320 Des Moines
56%
50313 Des Moines
59%
50322 Urbandale
69%
50021 Ankeny
84%
50323 Urbandale
99%
50315 Des Moines
105%
50265 West Des Moines
111%
50266 West Des Moines
115%
50131 Johnston
122%
50314 Des Moines
125%
50023 Ankeny
172%
50035 Bondurant
177%
50325 Clive
178%
50111 Grimes
184%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
50309Des Moines Employment hub 10,11038,489 8 134%
50321Des Moines Employment hub 7,90017,023 3 90%

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
50226Polk City 7,759936 5 6.1 299% Very high density
50327Pleasant Hill 13,1773,248 6 4.1 200% High density
50111Grimes 16,8659,001 8 3.7 184% High density
50325Clive 19,01211,862 9 3.6 178% High density
50035Bondurant 10,1312,050 4 3.6 177% High density
50023Ankeny 46,30610,645 18 3.5 172% High density
50309Des Moines 10,11038,489 8 2.7 134% Above average
50314Des Moines 10,43810,773 4 2.5 125% Above average
50131Johnston 24,58315,205 8 2.5 122% Above average
50266West Des Moines 37,52353,512 15 2.3 115% Above average
50265West Des Moines 33,48812,795 9 2.3 111% Above average
50315Des Moines 34,8165,284 8 2.1 105% Above average
50323Urbandale 17,2655,396 4 2.0 99% Below average
50321Des Moines 7,90017,023 3 1.8 90% Below average
50021Ankeny 30,28321,766 7 1.7 84% Below average
50322Urbandale 31,93121,599 6 1.4 69% Below average
50313Des Moines 17,44015,545 3 1.2 59% Below average
50320Des Moines 24,8073,534 3 1.1 56% Below average
50009Altoona 22,8868,958 3 1.1 54% Below average
50007Alleman 44420 0–2 — — Not published
50032Berwick 70712 0–2 — — Not published
50073Elkhart 1,208285 0–2 — — Not published
50169Mitchellville 3,667225 0–2 — — Not published
50237Runnells 3,635144 0–2 — — Not published
50243Sheldahl 36119 0–2 — — Not published
50301Des Moines —838 0–2 — — Not published
50303Des Moines —366 0–2 — — Not published
50305Des Moines —25 0–2 — — Not published
50310Des Moines 31,1776,771 0–2 — — Not published
50311Des Moines 14,5745,349 0–2 — — Not published
50312Des Moines 15,8025,190 0–2 — — Not published
50316Des Moines 16,7107,741 0–2 — — Not published
50317Des Moines 36,54810,851 0–2 — — Not published
50319Des Moines 0127 0–2 — — Not published
50324Windsor Heights 5,1431,605 0–2 — — Not published
50392Des Moines —15,700 0–2 — — Not published
50398Urbandale —848 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in West Des Moines

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse West Des Moines retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse West Des Moines retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse West Des Moines retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Polk County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 128 establishments and $68M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.