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Pinellas County, FL — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 68 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.80× the U.S. rate (between 0.80× and 0.96× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 39 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 19 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Pinellas County day care — 80–96% of the U.S. rate

191 day care are counted in Pinellas County — 1.6 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 80% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 13% between 2015 and 2023 (149 → 168). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 33712 (Saint Petersburg), 33778 (Largo), 33759 (Clearwater) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 34684 (Palm Harbor), 34677 (Oldsmar), 33701 (Saint Petersburg).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 205 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Pinellas County sits at 80% of the U.S. rate for day care. 19 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 80% and 96% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 33712 and 33778; the lowest measured density is in 34684 and 34677.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
191–269
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (39 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.6
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.80×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
205
2023 — $69M annual payroll
Residents
963,481
48 ZIPs with data
Workers
418,050
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
965,870
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+0.6%
+6,031 people
Net migration 2024
+3,669
international +7,642, domestic −3,973
Jobs located here
484,609
LODES 2022, +4.6% since 2019

Pinellas County had an estimated 965,870 residents on July 1, 2024 — 0.6% more than in 2020 (+6,031). In the latest year it lost 1,431 people: births minus deaths −5,051, international migration +7,642, domestic migration −3,973. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

484,609 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+4.6% since 2019), and 439,665 employed residents lived there (+2.1% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
33701 Saint Petersburg
+19.7%
33760 Clearwater
+18.3%
33781 Pinellas Park
+12.9%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
33762 Clearwater
−39.4%
33785 Indian Rocks Beach
−9.7%
33706 Saint Petersburg
−6.3%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
1,054
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$22.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$21K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 13% since 2015

Number of day care in Pinellas County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

149
2015
159
2018
156
2020
155
2021
164
2022
168
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
33712 Saint Petersburg
303%
33778 Largo
192%
33759 Clearwater
186%
34688 Tarpon Springs
163%
34683 Palm Harbor
161%
34698 Dunedin
159%
33781 Pinellas Park
157%
33711 Saint Petersburg
151%
33702 Saint Petersburg
128%
33777 Seminole
128%
33714 Saint Petersburg
115%
33774 Largo
114%
33756 Clearwater
109%
33705 Saint Petersburg
108%
33709 Saint Petersburg
106%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
34684 Palm Harbor
46%
34677 Oldsmar
47%
33701 Saint Petersburg
47%
33707 Saint Petersburg
54%
33773 Largo
62%
33760 Clearwater
66%
33770 Largo
68%
33764 Clearwater
72%
33710 Saint Petersburg
75%
33763 Clearwater
83%
33771 Largo
89%
33713 Saint Petersburg
94%
33755 Clearwater
97%
33782 Pinellas Park
98%
33709 Saint Petersburg
106%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
33744Bay Pines Destination 594,955 0–2 —
33762Clearwater Employment hub 5,06316,447 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
33712Saint Petersburg 27,1424,209 18 6.2 303% Very high density
33778Largo 16,8072,242 7 3.9 192% High density
33759Clearwater 17,55712,588 9 3.8 186% High density
34688Tarpon Springs 8,5221,102 3 3.3 163% High density
34683Palm Harbor 33,9115,813 12 3.3 161% High density
34698Dunedin 38,17110,283 14 3.2 159% High density
33781Pinellas Park 28,07212,692 11 3.2 157% High density
33711Saint Petersburg 20,0135,716 7 3.1 151% High density
33702Saint Petersburg 31,29414,576 10 2.6 128% Above average
33777Seminole 18,5829,140 6 2.6 128% Above average
33714Saint Petersburg 19,2274,441 5 2.3 115% Above average
33774Largo 19,7993,631 5 2.3 114% Above average
33756Clearwater 32,20116,836 9 2.2 109% Above average
33705Saint Petersburg 27,9398,241 7 2.2 108% Above average
33709Saint Petersburg 25,0505,758 6 2.1 106% Above average
33782Pinellas Park 22,4615,283 5 2.0 98% Below average
33755Clearwater 27,4765,906 6 2.0 97% Below average
33713Saint Petersburg 31,72910,318 7 1.9 94% Below average
33771Largo 27,59611,252 6 1.8 89% Below average
33763Clearwater 21,1465,274 4 1.7 83% Below average
33710Saint Petersburg 33,79611,482 6 1.5 75% Below average
33764Clearwater 27,31114,146 5 1.5 72% Below average
33770Largo 25,3687,337 4 1.4 68% Below average
33760Clearwater 20,50118,276 4 1.3 66% Below average
33773Largo 16,74114,561 3 1.2 62% Below average
33707Saint Petersburg 24,3246,153 3 1.1 54% Below average
33701Saint Petersburg 18,82325,047 3 1.0 47% Far below average
34677Oldsmar 22,76217,692 3 0.9 47% Far below average
34684Palm Harbor 27,0299,733 3 0.9 46% Far below average
33703Saint Petersburg 25,2643,902 0–2 — — Not published
33704Saint Petersburg 16,2327,144 0–2 — — Not published
33706Saint Petersburg 15,2988,087 0–2 — — Not published
33708Saint Petersburg 15,0604,723 0–2 — — Not published
33715Saint Petersburg 8,0321,149 0–2 — — Not published
33716Saint Petersburg 19,32835,140 0–2 — — Not published
33729Saint Petersburg —2,214 0–2 — — Not published
33731Saint Petersburg —82 0–2 — — Not published
33732Saint Petersburg —505 0–2 — — Not published
33733Saint Petersburg —2,609 0–2 — — Not published
33734Saint Petersburg —79 0–2 — — Not published
33736Saint Petersburg —17 0–2 — — Not published
33738Saint Petersburg —9 0–2 — — Not published
33742Saint Petersburg —28 0–2 — — Not published
33743Saint Petersburg —27 0–2 — — Not published
33744Bay Pines 594,955 0–2 — — Not published
33747Saint Petersburg —4 0–2 — — Not published
33757Clearwater —10 0–2 — — Not published
33758Clearwater —166 0–2 — — Not published
33761Clearwater 18,2909,454 0–2 — — Not published
33762Clearwater 5,06316,447 0–2 — — Not published
33765Clearwater 13,80812,996 0–2 — — Not published
33766Clearwater —25 0–2 — — Not published
33767Clearwater Beach 8,0816,265 0–2 — — Not published
33772Seminole 23,7335,684 0–2 — — Not published
33775Seminole —79 0–2 — — Not published
33776Seminole 12,5561,450 0–2 — — Not published
33779Largo —16 0–2 — — Not published
33780Pinellas Park —32 0–2 — — Not published
33784Saint Petersburg —17 0–2 — — Not published
33785Indian Rocks Beach 4,9071,950 0–2 — — Not published
33786Belleair Beach 1,582121 0–2 — — Not published
34660Ozona —46 0–2 — — Not published
34681Crystal Beach 1,284110 0–2 — — Not published
34682Palm Harbor —48 0–2 — — Not published
34685Palm Harbor 18,1323,443 0–2 — — Not published
34689Tarpon Springs 27,3249,232 0–2 — — Not published
34695Safety Harbor 18,0986,070 0–2 — — Not published
34697Dunedin —60 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Saint Petersburg

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Saint Petersburg retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Saint Petersburg retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Saint Petersburg retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Pinellas County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 205 establishments and $69M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.