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Orange County, FL — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 71 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.89× the U.S. rate (between 0.89× and 0.96× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 40 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 14 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Orange County day care — 89–96% of the U.S. rate

347 day care are counted in Orange County — 1.8 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 89% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 29% between 2015 and 2023 (257 → 332). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 32808 (Orlando), 32805 (Orlando), 32804 (Orlando) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 32826 (Orlando), 32817 (Orlando), 32712 (Apopka).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 351 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Orange County sits at 89% of the U.S. rate for day care. 14 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 89% and 96% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 32808 and 32805; the lowest measured density is in 32826 and 32817.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
347–427
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (40 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.8
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
0.89×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
351
2023 — $156M annual payroll
Residents
1,506,022
45 ZIPs with data
Workers
844,340
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,533,646
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+7.1%
+101,926 people
Net migration 2024
+25,281
international +43,378, domestic −18,097
Jobs located here
958,615
LODES 2022, +1.6% since 2019

Orange County had an estimated 1,533,646 residents on July 1, 2024 — 7.1% more than in 2020 (+101,926). In the latest year it gained 32,381 people: births minus deaths +7,133, international migration +43,378, domestic migration −18,097. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

958,615 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+1.6% since 2019), and 670,410 employed residents lived there (+0.9% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
32827 Orlando
+109.1%
32821 Orlando
+48.0%
34787 Winter Garden
+45.0%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
32826 Orlando
−19.4%

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
2,788
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$45.7M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$16K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 29% since 2015

Number of day care in Orange County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

257
2015
283
2018
299
2020
332
2021
328
2022
332
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
32808 Orlando
246%
32805 Orlando
232%
32804 Orlando
170%
32829 Orlando
157%
32807 Orlando
150%
32810 Orlando
143%
32811 Orlando
142%
34761 Ocoee
125%
32809 Orlando
121%
32803 Orlando
121%
32818 Orlando
120%
32703 Apopka
114%
32837 Orlando
112%
34787 Winter Garden
109%
34786 Windermere
107%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
32826 Orlando
38%
32817 Orlando
43%
32712 Apopka
46%
32827 Orlando
68%
32832 Orlando
71%
32825 Orlando
71%
32828 Orlando
73%
32824 Orlando
75%
32806 Orlando
80%
32835 Orlando
83%
32836 Orlando
84%
32812 Orlando
91%
32822 Orlando
93%
32792 Winter Park
101%
34786 Windermere
107%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
32819Orlando Employment hub 30,213112,747 9 51%
32801Orlando Employment hub 17,04637,051 0–2 —
32830Orlando Destination 19759,397 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
32798Zellwood 2,782796 3 9.4 465% Very high density
32808Orlando 60,20315,545 34 5.0 246% High density
32805Orlando 19,29412,327 12 4.7 232% High density
32804Orlando 21,72020,210 11 3.5 170% High density
32829Orlando 20,8192,348 7 3.2 157% High density
32807Orlando 34,4569,940 12 3.0 150% Above average
32810Orlando 36,92722,310 14 2.9 143% Above average
32811Orlando 41,47513,887 14 2.9 142% Above average
34761Ocoee 47,32715,819 14 2.5 125% Above average
32809Orlando 29,23755,090 14 2.5 121% Above average
32803Orlando 22,15237,019 10 2.5 121% Above average
32818Orlando 59,1144,753 15 2.4 120% Above average
32703Apopka 59,26920,131 16 2.3 114% Above average
32837Orlando 53,67124,703 15 2.3 112% Above average
34787Winter Garden 101,44123,319 25 2.2 109% Above average
34786Windermere 42,3587,041 10 2.2 107% Above average
32792Winter Park 52,97620,357 13 2.1 101% Above average
32822Orlando 67,08124,430 15 1.9 93% Below average
32812Orlando 34,6866,281 7 1.9 91% Below average
32836Orlando 26,1066,563 5 1.7 84% Below average
32835Orlando 49,2058,710 9 1.7 83% Below average
32806Orlando 26,09633,587 7 1.6 80% Below average
32824Orlando 58,36827,271 11 1.5 75% Below average
32828Orlando 69,20210,815 11 1.5 73% Below average
32825Orlando 63,69811,056 10 1.4 71% Below average
32832Orlando 40,19617,362 7 1.4 71% Below average
32827Orlando 19,71133,400 5 1.4 68% Below average
32819Orlando 30,213112,747 9 1.0 51% Below average
32712Apopka 50,5834,965 5 0.9 46% Far below average
32817Orlando 37,01417,796 4 0.9 43% Far below average
32826Orlando 29,00619,172 3 0.8 38% Far below average
32704Apopka —118 0–2 — — Not published
32709Christmas 1,696166 0–2 — — Not published
32710Clarcona —23 0–2 — — Not published
32751Maitland 22,10332,059 0–2 — — Not published
32768Plymouth 0294 0–2 — — Not published
32777Tangerine —211 0–2 — — Not published
32789Winter Park 27,78827,251 0–2 — — Not published
32790Winter Park —206 0–2 — — Not published
32793Winter Park —53 0–2 — — Not published
32794Maitland —95 0–2 — — Not published
32801Orlando 17,04637,051 0–2 — — Not published
32802Orlando —558 0–2 — — Not published
32814Orlando 9,2864,163 0–2 — — Not published
32816Orlando 12,624992 0–2 — — Not published
32820Orlando 10,8971,534 0–2 — — Not published
32821Orlando 26,16126,456 0–2 — — Not published
32830Orlando 19759,397 0–2 — — Not published
32831Orlando 2,52759 0–2 — — Not published
32833Orlando 11,389693 0–2 — — Not published
32834Orlando —32 0–2 — — Not published
32839Orlando 53,24213,524 0–2 — — Not published
32853Orlando —74 0–2 — — Not published
32854Orlando —55 0–2 — — Not published
32856Orlando —19 0–2 — — Not published
32857Orlando —34 0–2 — — Not published
32858Orlando —28 0–2 — — Not published
32859Orlando —92 0–2 — — Not published
32860Orlando —5 0–2 — — Not published
32861Orlando —150 0–2 — — Not published
32862Orlando —19 0–2 — — Not published
32867Orlando —11 0–2 — — Not published
32868Orlando —18 0–2 — — Not published
32869Orlando —234 0–2 — — Not published
32872Orlando —9 0–2 — — Not published
32877Orlando —42 0–2 — — Not published
32878Orlando —151 0–2 — — Not published
34734Gotha 3,940393 0–2 — — Not published
34760Oakland 740852 0–2 — — Not published
34777Winter Garden —124 0–2 — — Not published
34778Winter Garden —29 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Orlando

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Orlando retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Orlando retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Orlando retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Orange County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 351 establishments and $156M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.