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Duval County, FL — Day care Saturation

How many day care exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 48 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Child day care centers · Preschools & pre-K · Family home day care · After-school programs. Counted together because official statistics use one 624410 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.00× the U.S. rate (between 1.00× and 1.08× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 24 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 10 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

In line with the U.S. rate   Duval County day care — 100–108% of the U.S. rate

258 day care are counted in Duval County — 2.0 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 100% of the U.S. rate of 2.0.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 7% between 2015 and 2023 (233 → 250). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 32206 (Jacksonville), 32208 (Jacksonville), 32209 (Jacksonville) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 32256 (Jacksonville), 32258 (Jacksonville), 32233 (Atlantic Beach).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 269 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Duval County sits at 100% of the U.S. rate for day care. 10 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 100% and 108% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 32206 and 32208; the lowest measured density is in 32256 and 32258.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing day care and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Day care
258–306
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (24 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
2.0
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.0
per 10,000 present
County index
1.00×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
269
2023 — $110M annual payroll
Residents
1,020,642
34 ZIPs with data
Workers
499,883
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
1,055,159
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+5.7%
+57,333 people
Net migration 2024
+13,365
international +12,228, domestic +1,137
Jobs located here
582,538
LODES 2022, +5.8% since 2019

Duval County had an estimated 1,055,159 residents on July 1, 2024 — 5.7% more than in 2020 (+57,333). In the latest year it gained 16,326 people: births minus deaths +2,964, international migration +12,228, domestic migration +1,137. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

582,538 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+5.8% since 2019), and 462,421 employed residents lived there (+2.3% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
32234 Jacksonville
+65.0%
32222 Jacksonville
+58.5%
32226 Jacksonville
+35.7%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
1,674
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$26.1M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$16K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more day care in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 7% since 2015

Number of day care in Duval County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

233
2015
254
2018
241
2020
243
2021
245
2022
250
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
32206 Jacksonville
406%
32208 Jacksonville
257%
32209 Jacksonville
229%
32254 Jacksonville
198%
32210 Jacksonville
176%
32205 Jacksonville
155%
32211 Jacksonville
136%
32207 Jacksonville
114%
32216 Jacksonville
110%
32221 Jacksonville
109%
32224 Jacksonville
108%
32218 Jacksonville
102%
32225 Jacksonville
88%
32244 Jacksonville
86%
32223 Jacksonville
81%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
32256 Jacksonville
44%
32258 Jacksonville
51%
32233 Atlantic Beach
54%
32246 Jacksonville
66%
32257 Jacksonville
69%
32250 Jacksonville Beach
79%
32277 Jacksonville
79%
32223 Jacksonville
81%
32244 Jacksonville
86%
32225 Jacksonville
88%
32218 Jacksonville
102%
32224 Jacksonville
108%
32221 Jacksonville
109%
32216 Jacksonville
110%
32207 Jacksonville
114%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few day care may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersDay careIndex
32204Jacksonville Employment hub 9,15122,425 5 121%
32202Jacksonville Employment hub 6,02323,724 3 83%
32228Jacksonville Employment hub 222511 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = day care per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersDay care Per 10kIndexStatus
32206Jacksonville 17,1057,055 17 8.2 406% Very high density
32208Jacksonville 32,6993,525 18 5.2 257% Very high density
32209Jacksonville 34,65712,385 19 4.7 229% High density
32254Jacksonville 13,92717,050 9 4.0 198% High density
32210Jacksonville 65,72913,804 26 3.6 176% High density
32205Jacksonville 29,14811,802 11 3.1 155% High density
32211Jacksonville 36,7626,145 11 2.8 136% Above average
32204Jacksonville 9,15122,425 5 2.5 121% Above average
32207Jacksonville 36,99838,583 13 2.3 114% Above average
32216Jacksonville 42,29841,038 14 2.2 110% Above average
32221Jacksonville 32,8336,479 8 2.2 109% Above average
32224Jacksonville 42,09215,954 11 2.2 108% Above average
32218Jacksonville 72,90528,133 18 2.1 102% Above average
32225Jacksonville 55,90522,049 12 1.8 88% Below average
32244Jacksonville 63,5929,696 12 1.8 86% Below average
32202Jacksonville 6,02323,724 3 1.7 83% Below average
32223Jacksonville 26,1608,215 5 1.7 81% Below average
32277Jacksonville 36,3382,218 6 1.6 79% Below average
32250Jacksonville Beach 29,07216,785 6 1.6 79% Below average
32257Jacksonville 42,90414,372 7 1.4 69% Below average
32246Jacksonville 62,56225,196 10 1.3 66% Below average
32233Atlantic Beach 24,6335,840 3 1.1 54% Below average
32258Jacksonville 40,40815,643 5 1.0 51% Below average
32256Jacksonville 58,19284,649 9 0.9 44% Far below average
32099Jacksonville —210 0–2 — — Not published
32201Jacksonville —1,071 0–2 — — Not published
32203Jacksonville 0271 0–2 — — Not published
32212Jacksonville 1,939757 0–2 — — Not published
32214Jacksonville 02,399 0–2 — — Not published
32217Jacksonville 20,2218,047 0–2 — — Not published
32219Jacksonville 14,30216,102 0–2 — — Not published
32220Jacksonville 12,2984,941 0–2 — — Not published
32222Jacksonville 18,2583,002 0–2 — — Not published
32226Jacksonville 21,2568,785 0–2 — — Not published
32227Jacksonville 3,20776 0–2 — — Not published
32228Jacksonville 222511 0–2 — — Not published
32229Jacksonville —235 0–2 — — Not published
32234Jacksonville 9,6782,101 0–2 — — Not published
32235Jacksonville —13 0–2 — — Not published
32236Jacksonville —1,155 0–2 — — Not published
32238Jacksonville —101 0–2 — — Not published
32239Jacksonville —16 0–2 — — Not published
32240Jacksonville Beach —186 0–2 — — Not published
32241Jacksonville —68 0–2 — — Not published
32245Jacksonville —24 0–2 — — Not published
32247Jacksonville —137 0–2 — — Not published
32255Jacksonville —601 0–2 — — Not published
32266Neptune Beach 7,1682,796 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Jacksonville

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Jacksonville retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Jacksonville retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Jacksonville retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Duval County and day care

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 624410 — child day care services. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 269 establishments and $110M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.03 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.