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Polk County, FL — Car washes Saturation

How many car washes exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 49 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Car wash tunnels & bays · Self-serve & automatic washes · Detailing (wash-attached). Counted together because official statistics use one 811192 code.

Measured density: Range spans bands — 0.71× the U.S. rate (between 0.71× and 1.92× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 39 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 27 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Polk County car washes — 71–192% of the U.S. rate

32 car washes are counted in Polk County — 0.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 71% of the U.S. rate of 0.5.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has fallen 25% between 2015 and 2023 (4 → 3). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 33853 (Lake Wales), 33896 (Davenport), 33881 (Winter Haven) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 33801 (Lakeland), 33813 (Lakeland), 33884 (Winter Haven).

Census County Business Patterns (2023) puts the county-wide count at 47 establishments, including locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA — so it can run slightly above the sum of the ZIP rows on this page. It is annual, so it lags more than QCEW.

Measured density: Polk County sits at 71% of the U.S. rate for car washes. 27 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 71% and 192% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 33853 and 33896; the lowest measured density is in 33801 and 33813.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing car washes and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Car washes
32–110
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (39 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.5
per 10,000 present
County index
0.71×
vs. U.S.
Latest year (CBP)
47
2023 — $11M annual payroll
Residents
802,032
37 ZIPs with data
Workers
231,199
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
852,878
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+16.8%
+122,699 people
Net migration 2024
+27,766
international +8,021, domestic +19,745
Jobs located here
269,911
LODES 2022, +8.0% since 2019

Polk County had an estimated 852,878 residents on July 1, 2024 — 16.8% more than in 2020 (+122,699). In the latest year it gained 28,706 people: births minus deaths +1,006, international migration +8,021, domestic migration +19,745. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

269,911 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+8.0% since 2019), and 327,089 employed residents lived there (+11.0% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
33896 Davenport
+129.4%
33837 Davenport
+54.7%
33844 Haines City
+39.7%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes only a broader group that also includes oil-change and other auto service shops, so a car-wash-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery.

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more car washes in that ZIP.

Market trend — down 25% since 2015

Number of car washes in Polk County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

4
2015
3
2018
3
2020
4
2021
3
2022
3
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
33853 Lake Wales
400%
33896 Davenport
211%
33881 Winter Haven
177%
33809 Lakeland
171%
33803 Lakeland
168%
33805 Lakeland
162%
33837 Davenport
160%
33884 Winter Haven
151%
33813 Lakeland
138%
33801 Lakeland
131%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
33801 Lakeland
131%
33813 Lakeland
138%
33884 Winter Haven
151%
33837 Davenport
160%
33805 Lakeland
162%
33803 Lakeland
168%
33809 Lakeland
171%
33881 Winter Haven
177%
33896 Davenport
211%
33853 Lake Wales
400%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few car washes may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersCar washesIndex
33835Bradley Employment hub 115504 0–2 —
33855Indian Lake Estates Employment hub 1584 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = car washes per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersCar washes Per 10kIndexStatus
33853Lake Wales 12,6745,281 3 2.0 400% Very high density
33896Davenport 26,7314,696 3 1.0 211% High density
33881Winter Haven 40,80810,770 4 0.9 177% High density
33809Lakeland 30,79710,318 3 0.8 171% High density
33803Lakeland 29,32114,197 3 0.8 168% High density
33805Lakeland 28,75118,025 3 0.8 162% High density
33837Davenport 47,3897,503 4 0.8 160% High density
33884Winter Haven 37,5616,249 3 0.7 151% High density
33813Lakeland 38,67411,834 3 0.7 138% Above average
33801Lakeland 35,39422,903 3 0.6 131% Above average
33802Lakeland —996 0–2 — — Not published
33804Lakeland —316 0–2 — — Not published
33806Lakeland —178 0–2 — — Not published
33807Lakeland —191 0–2 — — Not published
33810Lakeland 55,1376,636 0–2 — — Not published
33811Lakeland 29,47227,806 0–2 — — Not published
33812Lakeland 16,1691,752 0–2 — — Not published
33815Lakeland 13,97511,620 0–2 — — Not published
33820Alturas —13 0–2 — — Not published
33823Auburndale 41,77910,115 0–2 — — Not published
33827Babson Park 2,431393 0–2 — — Not published
33830Bartow 33,7409,932 0–2 — — Not published
33831Bartow —342 0–2 — — Not published
33835Bradley 115504 0–2 — — Not published
33836Davenport —118 0–2 — — Not published
33838Dundee 5,6881,173 0–2 — — Not published
33839Eagle Lake 4,561282 0–2 — — Not published
33840Eaton Park 074 0–2 — — Not published
33841Fort Meade 8,0051,000 0–2 — — Not published
33843Frostproof 11,2201,272 0–2 — — Not published
33844Haines City 51,2557,703 0–2 — — Not published
33845Haines City —186 0–2 — — Not published
33846Highland City —162 0–2 — — Not published
33847Homeland 44231 0–2 — — Not published
33849Kathleen 85136 0–2 — — Not published
33850Lake Alfred 9,757956 0–2 — — Not published
33851Lake Hamilton 1,212328 0–2 — — Not published
33854Lakeshore 78119 0–2 — — Not published
33855Indian Lake Estates 1584 0–2 — — Not published
33859Lake Wales 11,8244,334 0–2 — — Not published
33860Mulberry 24,8926,767 0–2 — — Not published
33868Polk City 13,8271,217 0–2 — — Not published
33877Waverly 159148 0–2 — — Not published
33880Winter Haven 43,37113,576 0–2 — — Not published
33882Winter Haven —36 0–2 — — Not published
33883Winter Haven —38 0–2 — — Not published
33897Davenport 30,1597,908 0–2 — — Not published
33898Lake Wales 18,5271,559 0–2 — — Not published
34759Kissimmee 44,5682,272 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Lakeland

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Lakeland retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Lakeland retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Lakeland retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Polk County and car washes

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 811192 — car washes. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. This industry has no clean QCEW series, so the freshest county signal is Census County Business Patterns 2023: 47 establishments and $11M in annual payroll county-wide. This count includes locations in ZIP codes that do not map to a ZCTA, so it can be slightly higher than the sum of the ZIP rows. CBP is annual and slower than QCEW. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.49 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.