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Polk County, FL — Beauty salons Saturation

How many beauty salons exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 49 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Hair salons · Beauty salons · Blow-dry & styling bars · Makeup & skincare studios. Counted together because official statistics use one 812112 code.

Measured density: Below average — 0.64× the U.S. rate (between 0.64× and 0.83× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 30 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 18 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Below the U.S. rate   Polk County beauty salons — 64–83% of the U.S. rate

122 beauty salons are counted in Polk County — 1.3 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 64% of the U.S. rate of 2.1.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 49% between 2015 and 2023 (59 → 88). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 33813 (Lakeland), 33838 (Dundee), 33803 (Lakeland) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 33881 (Winter Haven), 33811 (Lakeland), 33823 (Auburndale).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 119 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Polk County sits at 64% of the U.S. rate for beauty salons. 18 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 64% and 83% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 33813 and 33838; the lowest measured density is in 33881 and 33811.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing beauty salons and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Beauty salons
122–182
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (30 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
1.3
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
2.1
per 10,000 present
County index
0.64×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
119
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
802,032
37 ZIPs with data
Workers
231,199
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
852,878
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+16.8%
+122,699 people
Net migration 2024
+27,766
international +8,021, domestic +19,745
Jobs located here
269,911
LODES 2022, +8.0% since 2019

Polk County had an estimated 852,878 residents on July 1, 2024 — 16.8% more than in 2020 (+122,699). In the latest year it gained 28,706 people: births minus deaths +1,006, international migration +8,021, domestic migration +19,745. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

269,911 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+8.0% since 2019), and 327,089 employed residents lived there (+11.0% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
33896 Davenport
+129.4%
33837 Davenport
+54.7%
33844 Haines City
+39.7%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses (no paid employees)

Nonemployer businesses
2,603
no paid employees (2024)
Receipts
$66.3M
published gross receipts
Receipts per business
$25K
gross, not profit

Census Nonemployer Statistics counts businesses with no paid employees — a separate universe from the employer establishments counted above; a business is in one or the other, never both. They are not storefronts by definition: many are home-based, mobile, or part-time.

We show them beside the density index, not inside it. In categories such as nail and beauty salons, child care, and pet care, one-person businesses can outnumber employer establishments, so the employer-only count understates how many businesses exist. That is not evidence of higher demand.

Receipts are gross revenue reported for these businesses — not profit, and not the size of the local market. Census publishes this only at county level, so it is not shown on the ZIP map. See methodology.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more beauty salons in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 49% since 2015

Number of beauty salons in Polk County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

59
2015
76
2018
81
2020
82
2021
93
2022
88
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
33813 Lakeland
270%
33838 Dundee
230%
33803 Lakeland
172%
33853 Lake Wales
126%
33801 Lakeland
123%
33880 Winter Haven
86%
33809 Lakeland
80%
33815 Lakeland
73%
33884 Winter Haven
71%
33896 Davenport
66%
33837 Davenport
56%
33860 Mulberry
51%
33830 Bartow
50%
33810 Lakeland
49%
33844 Haines City
44%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
33881 Winter Haven
31%
33811 Lakeland
33%
33823 Auburndale
41%
33897 Davenport
42%
33844 Haines City
44%
33810 Lakeland
49%
33830 Bartow
50%
33860 Mulberry
51%
33837 Davenport
56%
33896 Davenport
66%
33884 Winter Haven
71%
33815 Lakeland
73%
33809 Lakeland
80%
33880 Winter Haven
86%
33801 Lakeland
123%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few beauty salons may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

Employment hubs & destinations

These ZIPs have far more workers (or visitors) than residents, so their counts are driven by daytime and visitor demand — not a place to read "shortage" from resident numbers alone.

ZIPNeighborhoodType ResidentsWorkersBeauty salonsIndex
33835Bradley Employment hub 115504 0–2 —
33855Indian Lake Estates Employment hub 1584 0–2 —

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = beauty salons per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersBeauty salons Per 10kIndexStatus
33813Lakeland 38,67411,834 25 5.6 270% Very high density
33838Dundee 5,6881,173 3 4.8 230% High density
33803Lakeland 29,32114,197 13 3.6 172% High density
33853Lake Wales 12,6745,281 4 2.6 126% Above average
33801Lakeland 35,39422,903 12 2.6 123% Above average
33880Winter Haven 43,37113,576 9 1.8 86% Below average
33809Lakeland 30,79710,318 6 1.7 80% Below average
33815Lakeland 13,97511,620 3 1.5 73% Below average
33884Winter Haven 37,5616,249 6 1.5 71% Below average
33896Davenport 26,7314,696 4 1.4 66% Below average
33837Davenport 47,3897,503 6 1.2 56% Below average
33860Mulberry 24,8926,767 3 1.1 51% Below average
33830Bartow 33,7409,932 4 1.0 50% Far below average
33810Lakeland 55,1376,636 6 1.0 49% Far below average
33844Haines City 51,2557,703 5 0.9 44% Far below average
33897Davenport 30,1597,908 3 0.9 42% Far below average
33823Auburndale 41,77910,115 4 0.9 41% Far below average
33811Lakeland 29,47227,806 3 0.7 33% Far below average
33881Winter Haven 40,80810,770 3 0.6 31% Far below average
33802Lakeland —996 0–2 — — Not published
33804Lakeland —316 0–2 — — Not published
33805Lakeland 28,75118,025 0–2 — — Not published
33806Lakeland —178 0–2 — — Not published
33807Lakeland —191 0–2 — — Not published
33812Lakeland 16,1691,752 0–2 — — Not published
33820Alturas —13 0–2 — — Not published
33827Babson Park 2,431393 0–2 — — Not published
33831Bartow —342 0–2 — — Not published
33835Bradley 115504 0–2 — — Not published
33836Davenport —118 0–2 — — Not published
33839Eagle Lake 4,561282 0–2 — — Not published
33840Eaton Park 074 0–2 — — Not published
33841Fort Meade 8,0051,000 0–2 — — Not published
33843Frostproof 11,2201,272 0–2 — — Not published
33845Haines City —186 0–2 — — Not published
33846Highland City —162 0–2 — — Not published
33847Homeland 44231 0–2 — — Not published
33849Kathleen 85136 0–2 — — Not published
33850Lake Alfred 9,757956 0–2 — — Not published
33851Lake Hamilton 1,212328 0–2 — — Not published
33854Lakeshore 78119 0–2 — — Not published
33855Indian Lake Estates 1584 0–2 — — Not published
33859Lake Wales 11,8244,334 0–2 — — Not published
33868Polk City 13,8271,217 0–2 — — Not published
33877Waverly 159148 0–2 — — Not published
33882Winter Haven —36 0–2 — — Not published
33883Winter Haven —38 0–2 — — Not published
33898Lake Wales 18,5271,559 0–2 — — Not published
34759Kissimmee 44,5682,272 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in Lakeland

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse Lakeland retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse Lakeland retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse Lakeland retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Polk County and beauty salons

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 812112 — beauty salons. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 119 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (2.08 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.