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Hays County, TX — Auto repair Saturation

How many auto repair exist per person present — residents plus daytime workers — by ZIP code, compared with the U.S. average. Establishment data: Census ZBP 2023. Population: ACS 2024 5-year. 8 ZIP codes analyzed.

Includes: Auto repair & maintenance shops · Body, paint & interior repair. Counted together because official statistics use one 811121 code.

Measured density: Above average — 1.02× the U.S. rate (between 1.02× and 1.17× once withheld ZIP cells are counted)

Why a range: Census does not publish a ZIP-by-industry count when that ZIP has 0–2 businesses. 3 ZIP cells in this county are withheld, 2 of them with residents. Each could hold 0, 1, or 2 businesses: counting them all as 0 gives the low end, counting them all as 2 gives the high end — the data cannot say where the truth sits. The density range uses only the populated cells, since ZIPs without residents are excluded from per-person rates. How ranges work

Range spans the U.S. rate   Hays County auto repair — 102–117% of the U.S. rate

29 auto repair are counted in Hays County — 0.9 per 10,000 people present (residents + daytime workers), 102% of the U.S. rate of 0.9.

On the comparable ZIP set (ZIPs with a published count in every year), the total has risen 38% between 2015 and 2023 (16 → 22). That set is smaller than today's county total. 2020–2021 were pandemic-distorted, and Census rounds counts, so small moves are within noise.

Measured supply density is highest in 78620 (Dripping Springs), 78666 (San Marcos), 78737 (Austin) — well above the national rate. On measured density alone, the lowest-density residential ZIPs with a published count are 78640 (Kyle), 78610 (Buda), 78737 (Austin).

BLS QCEW puts the latest county-wide count (2026 Q1) at 29 establishments, the freshest available signal.

Measured density: Hays County sits at 102% of the U.S. rate for auto repair. 2 ZIPs with population have no published count (each 0–2 businesses), so the true per-capita rate is between 102% and 117% of the U.S. rate. Why. The highest measured density is in 78620 and 78666; the lowest measured density is in 78640 and 78610.

This is a supply-side read: it counts existing auto repair and the people present, not foot traffic, income, rent, or whether locals want more. Treat low density as a question to check, not an answer.

Auto repair
29–35
published count; upper bound counts each withheld ZIP cell as 2 (3 cells) (2023)
Per 10,000 present
0.9
residents + daytime workers
U.S. average
0.9
per 10,000 present
County index
1.02×
vs. U.S.
Latest quarter (QCEW)
29
2026 Q1 — county total
Residents
286,831
7 ZIPs with data
Workers
81,054
jobs located in county

Is the area growing?

Population
292,029
Census PEP, July 1 2024
Change since 2020
+19.7%
+48,041 people
Net migration 2024
+8,738
international +1,308, domestic +7,430
Jobs located here
79,148
LODES 2022, +12.6% since 2019

Hays County had an estimated 292,029 residents on July 1, 2024 — 19.7% more than in 2020 (+48,041). In the latest year it gained 10,332 people: births minus deaths +1,598, international migration +1,308, domestic migration +7,430. Components are published separately and may not sum exactly.

79,148 jobs were located in the county in 2022 (+12.6% since 2019), and 115,061 employed residents lived there (+17.7% since 2019). LODES counts wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance plus federal jobs; it excludes the self-employed and military, and counts jobs rather than unique people. 2019→2022 spans the pandemic, so read it as one change, not a trend.

Population and migration say whether the customer base is growing. They do not say whether people want another business of this type. Definitions and limits →  ·  Full county detail →

ZIP gaining residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change
78737 Austin
+57.4%
78640 Kyle
+31.9%
78620 Dripping Springs
+30.0%
ZIP losing residents
2015–19 → 2020–24
Change

No ZIP had a statistically significant decrease.

ACS 5-year estimates for 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. Only ZIPs with at least 2,000 residents in both windows and a change larger than the survey margin of error (90%) are listed — small ZIPs move a lot on paper without a real signal.

Nonemployer businesses

Not shown. Census publishes only a broader group that also includes auto glass shops, so an auto-repair-only nonemployer count is not published.

Census Nonemployer Statistics 2024 (NAICS 2022). We do not approximate this figure.

Saturation map

Each ZIP area is shaded by its density of this business type per person present (residents + workers) vs. the U.S. average. Click any ZIP to zoom to its boundary, see its numbers, and switch to aerial imagery. Individual mapped shops appear as dots at street level — Show locations zooms you in to them (scroll or double-click to zoom).

Basemap:
Under 50% 50–100% 100–150% 150–250% 250%+ 0–2 (not published) / no data ZIP total (dot size) Mapped shop (OpenStreetMap, street level)

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, tiles by OpenFreeMap.

White dots are ZIP totals from the official Census count — the bigger the dot, the more auto repair in that ZIP. They are aggregated, not individual shops. Turquoise dots are individual locations mapped in OpenStreetMap, shown only at street level; they are crowd-sourced and indicative, may be incomplete, and do not equal the official counts. Only the official ZIP totals feed the saturation index.

Market trend — up 38% since 2015

Number of auto repair in Hays County across 2015–2023, on a consistent set of ZIP codes present in every year — so changes are real, not ZIP-boundary artifacts. 2015/2018 are pre-pandemic baselines; 2020/2021 are COVID-distorted.

16
2015
24
2018
20
2020
22
2021
19
2022
22
2023

Highest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
78620 Dripping Springs
249%
78666 San Marcos
120%
78737 Austin
119%
78610 Buda
105%
78640 Kyle
55%

Lowest measured density

ZIP
vs. U.S. average
Index
78640 Kyle
55%
78610 Buda
105%
78737 Austin
119%
78666 San Marcos
120%
78620 Dripping Springs
249%
Low measured density is not evidence of opportunity. A ZIP with few auto repair may simply lack foot traffic, retail space, or demand. We rank only residential and mixed ZIPs here; employment hubs and visitor destinations are listed separately below. ZIPs where Census did not publish a count (0–2 businesses) are not ranked: they may be the least served of all, but the data cannot tell 0 from 1 or 2. Verify those locally.

All ZIP codes

Click a column header to sort. Index = auto repair per 10,000 people present (residents + 0.5×workers) ÷ the U.S. average. 100% = exactly average.

ZIPNeighborhood ResidentsWorkersAuto repair Per 10kIndexStatus
78620Dripping Springs 22,86010,015 6 2.2 249% High density
78666San Marcos 88,58334,315 11 1.0 120% Above average
78737Austin 27,0234,231 3 1.0 119% Above average
78610Buda 48,31913,904 5 0.9 105% Above average
78640Kyle 77,53113,484 4 0.5 55% Below average
78619Driftwood 6,6931,611 0–2 — — Not published
78667San Marcos —1,446 0–2 — — Not published
78676Wimberley 15,8223,494 0–2 — — Not published

Scroll the table sideways to see all columns.

Find an actual space in San Marcos

The numbers above tell you how the market looks. To find a specific storefront, these marketplaces list available retail space for lease.

LoopNet
Largest commercial marketplace
Browse San Marcos retail space →
Crexi
Free listings + market data
Browse San Marcos retail space →
CityFeet
Retail space for lease
Browse San Marcos retail space →

Open vacancy data (actual empty units) is only published by some cities; where it exists we show it directly. Listings above are third-party.

Census withholds some ZIP-by-industry cells to protect small businesses. 0–2 means the cell was not published (Census publishes industry counts only at 3+ per ZIP), so the ZIP is left unranked rather than counted as zero. ~ means the count is estimated from the broader industry group and can be off by a business or two.

Follow Hays County and auto repair

When a data vintage changes or a section of this report is revised, we post it to a public update feed. No email address, no account, no tracking — and nothing is sent unless something actually changed.

Subscribe to updates (RSS) How these numbers are built →

Methodology & sources

Establishments. U.S. Census ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP 2023), NAICS 811121 — automotive body, paint & interior repair. Counts establishments with paid employees. ZBP is published annually with a ~2-year lag.

Fresh county signal. BLS QCEW (quarterly) is newer than ZBP — 2026 Q1 shows 29 establishments county-wide for this industry. It cannot be broken down by ZIP.

Population. U.S. Census American Community Survey 2024 5-year ZCTA population (table B01003). Workers are the ZIP's total employment from the same 2023 ZBP file.

Demand ("people present"). Demand comes from residents and daytime workers: residents + 0.5 × workers. This is the single documented assumption in the model and can be tuned.

Index. index = (ZIP establishments ÷ ZIP demand × 10,000) ÷ the U.S. average for this industry (0.87 per 10,000 present). It is a supply-side density measure; it does not capture income, rent, tourism, or whether locals actually want more.

Read the full methodology →  ·  Data sources & vintages →

BizGapMap — free, no-login small-business saturation reports for major U.S. counties. Built entirely from public U.S. Census, BLS, and IRS data (ZBP 2023, ACS 2024 5-year, PEP 2024, LODES, QCEW, IRS SOI). No forecasts, no revenue guesses — withheld cells are marked, and the few derived counts are labelled as estimates.